By: Adamo Marinelli
May 6, 2021
As of 10:00 am on May 6, the Raptors sit at 27-39, 11th in the Eastern Conference, 3 games back of the 10th seed Washington Wizards - who are 30-36 - for the final spot in the play-in tournament. With only 6 games left, the task of leapfrogging the Wizards - who’ve been red-hot as of late, winning 11 of the last 14 games - in the standings looks extremely difficult.
However, if the Raptors go on a winning streak, including winning against the Wizards on May 6, anything is possible. If the Raptors do miss the playoffs, it will be the first time since the 2012-2013 season, one of the longest playoff streaks in the NBA.
The fact that the Raptors are still in the position to grab the final play-in spot, despite all the injuries and COVID-19 protocols just shows the amount of resilience this team has and shows the brilliance of Nick Nurse’s many coaching schemes and adaptations. Furthermore, so far, the Raptors have used 32 starting lineups this season, the most in franchise history and the most in the NBA. Not to mention, they have been the only team to not play in their home city.
I’m not one for excuses, but if it weren’t for all of the Raptors’ injuries and losing all of their starters for an extended period of time due to COVID-19 safety protocols, the Raptors would not have gone 1-13 in March. As a result, they probably would have won 7-8 games in March, which would have put them in the 7th or 8th seed in the East. But what’s done is done.
Regardless of whether or not the Raptors make the play-in tournament, there has been a lot of development happening this season. This is crucial for their success in the future. With starters like Kyle Lowry, Pascal Siakam, Fred Van Vleet, OG Anunoby, Norman Powell (traded to Portland for Gary Trent Jr.), and Gary Trent Jr. out for extended periods of time, many young players like Malachi Flynn, Yuta Watanabe, Freddie Gillespie, Stanley Johnson, Paul Watson, and DeAndre Bembry got plenty of playing time to develop. This is excellent, as the young players can get experience when there are very few expectations to win so that next season, the Raptors know how to win games so that they can be playoff contenders again.
If Kyle Lowry does end up leaving this offseason, which is a large possibility, Malachi Flynn will likely play shooting guard, Fred Van Vleet will play point guard, OG Anunoby will play small forward, Pascal Siakam will play power forward and Khem Birch will likely play center. They will also likely get a few first-round picks in return for Lowry (to draft potential future superstars) and they will get a few talented roster players in return as well. Center and wing forwards are big positions of need for the Raptors in the draft and in free agency.
The bench mob will consist of Chris Boucher, Gary Trent Jr. (who could replace Flynn as starting shooting guard), Yuta Watanabe, Freddie Gillespie, Rodney Hood, and Stanley Johnson. That will make for an excellent roster next season, that could be competitive, as long as they’re healthy. If the Raptors also nail the draft and trade for a stud like Andrew Wiggins, or Jarrett Allen, they’d be even more of a threat in the Eastern Conference.
In the first half of the season, the Raptors lost a lot of games because they were getting badly out-rebounded on the offensive and defensive glass. This is mainly the result of playing the first half of the season without a true center. No offense to Aron Baynes, but his production was low and he couldn’t grab rebounds as often as Raptors fans hoped. This is because Aron Baynes is a true forward. Bringing in Khem Birch was a solid move and the Raptors started becoming more efficient on the glass and it helped them win some games. Birch has also developed chemistry with Lowry, Van Vleet, and Siakam catching passes at the rim and scoring.
To help them be more consistent on the glass next season and to generate offense from the high-post like Ibaka and Gasol did, the Raptors should address the center position in the 2021 NBA draft, especially if the Raptors miss the play-in tournament and get a high lottery pick. In addition to adding a center in the draft, the Raptors also have Chris Boucher who has excelled this season while playing big minutes, and the Raptors should also resign center Khem Birch, who has been a big part of the Raptors’ recent success and has played very well for the Raptors averaging 10.8 points, 7.2 rebounds and 1.4 blocks per game since joining the team at the trade deadline. Freddie Gillespie is also a good option coming off the bench. Or if they so desire, they can make a trade for a center like Jarrett Allen, even if it means parting ways with Birch, another starter, and some draft capital.
In addition, in previous seasons the Raptors would normally start games slowly and then have strong second halves to come back and win plenty of games. This season, for the most part, the Raptors would start strong, even against good teams and with all the injuries and health and safety protocols they’ve faced, but they would fall apart in the fourth quarter and lose games. The Raptors have blown many leads in the fourth quarter this season, particularly at the beginning of the season, in March, and in the last few games, including against the Jazz, Nuggets, and Clippers.
To avoid this issue, teams often get a superstar to score, make plays, and get defensive stops in clutch time. Right now, the Raptors have Kyle Lowry as the superstar that is there for them in the clutch. In the event that he leaves this offseason, the Raptors could acquire another superstar in free agency.
However, the more reliable option for the Raptors is just their developing players. When they are healthy, the Raptors have several talented players on their roster that with time can become a number one option, like Kawhi Leonard in 2019, even if Lowry leaves. For example, you have Pascal Siakam, Fred Van Vleet, OG Anunoby, and Gary Trent Jr. At least one of these guys, maybe multiple, will be able to produce on both sides of the ball in the clutch. They also have multiple guys on the bench that can pick up production when the starters need help, like Boucher, Watanabe, Flynn, and even rookie guard Jalen Harris who has played great basketball in the last few games. This is why the development of the young guys has been so important this season. Allowing them to play big minutes night in and night out increases their confidence and allows them to grow as a player. Even in their championship run, when they were constantly winning they were developing guys like Norman Powell, OG Anunoby, Pascal Siakam, FVV, etc.
However, bringing in a solid free agent, drafting a franchise player in the draft or even trading for a superstar like Andrew Wiggins could be another great addition to the Raptors which would add to their depth and could help them close games in the fourth quarter, which they have struggled with all season. The Raptors play well for 3 quarters, even against good opponents, and then choke in the 4th quarter. That is the worst way to lose, especially after playing so well for the first three and a half quarters.
Finally, Masai Ujiri, the President of Basketball Operations is in the final year of his contract and has not yet signed an extension with the Raptors. Ujiri has been absolutely essential to all the success the Raptors have had since 2012-2013. He built the current Raptors team from the ground up, trading many of the older Raptors like Andrea Bargnani and Rudy Gay for lots of draft picks which turned into guys like Powell, Siakam, Van Vleet, Anunoby, he traded for Serge Ibaka and Marc Gasol and also was responsible for the trade that sent Kawhi Leonard and Danny Green to the Raptors as well. He even signed guys like Terrence Davis, Chris Boucher, Matt Thomas, Rondae Hollis Jefferson, and Stanley Johnson among others. He also drafted Malachi Flynn last year.
The point is, Masai Ujiri built the current Raptors team from the ground up through free agency, the draft, and by trading with other teams. He has also helped develop many of the current Raptors we know today. In order for the Raptors to remain competitive, they need a skilled president like Ujiri to pair with GM Bobby Webster to continue building a strong team through the draft, through free agency, and to continue developing both current and new players.
A strong enough offer from another team could lure Ujiri away from the Raptors. If I were the Raptors I would do everything I could to ensure Ujiri returns, as he has been so crucial for the success and development of this team, but if he does leave this offseason, it will be difficult for his successor to reach the same level of success Ujiri has over the last 8 seasons.
If the Raptors have a good draft, acquire a true center (in the draft or free agency), continue developing the young guys on their roster, maybe make a splash in a trade for a guy like Andrew Wiggins and if they can stay healthy - even if they do trade Kyle Lowry this offseason for roster players and draft capital - they should be able to compete for a playoff spot next season.
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