NBA Playoff Predictions 2021 - Round 1

By: Adamo Marinelli

May 22, 2021

With the 2021 NBA Play-in tournament officially over, that means the round 1 playoff matchups have been set. There are a lot of very talented teams in the playoffs this year which will make for some very entertaining and interesting series. In this article, I will analyze each matchup and provide a prediction on which team moves on to the next round. Let's get started.  

Wizards vs 76ers: This is a big mismatch. At 49-23, the 76ers have the 3rd best record in the league and even with all the talent on the Wizards’ roster like Russell Westbrook and Bradley Beal, it will be hard for the Wizards to best the 76ers in a 7 game series, despite their impressive offense and good transition game. Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons both had unbelievable seasons. Embiid leads the team in points per game with 28.5, in rebounds per game with 10.6 and Simmons plays a huge role on offense with his playmaking ability, leading the team with 6.9 assists per game. His long-distance shooting is also improving. The 76ers have the 6th best defense in the NBA, ranking 6th in fewest points allowed, 2nd in steals, 2nd in blocks, and they have the 4th lowest opponents’ field goal percentage. Even with the speed, talent and the creativity on the Wizards’ roster offensively, it will be hard to score. In addition, the 76ers have the 4th best offense in the NBA. They have the 9th best field goal percentage and the 10th best 3 point percentage in the NBA. They have the 10th most rebounds in the NBA and are very efficient on the offensive glass, but they are bottom 10 in the NBA for both assists and turnovers lost. Coupled with the fact that the Wizards are among the worst defensive teams in the league, it will be extremely difficult for the Wizards to win this series. Against a strong 76ers team with guys who can drive the rim, spread the ball around and shoot from long-range, their poor defense will be the difference in the series. Not to mention, Doc Rivers is one of the best coaches in the NBA and will take advantage of the Wizards’ lackluster defense. However, If the Wizards can take advantage of the 76ers’ turnovers, have a strong transition game, move the ball effectively to create open shots - as the 76ers have several talented but slower big men who aren’t the best at pick and rolls and screen action - and get production from both their starters and bench players, they may win a game or two. But I see the 76ers winning in 5 games.

Celtics vs Nets: If this isn’t a star-studded series I don’t know what is. The Brooklyn Nets have been one of the most hyped up teams in the league and have been championship favourites all season long. The Celtics have a lot of young talent and despite Jaylen Brown’s injury, Jayson Tatum and Kemba Walker are still two dominant forces leading a team with lots of talent and depth from guys like Marcus Smart, Evan Fournier, Tristan Thompson, Robert Williams, etc. The Celtics are a very talented team on offense, they can shoot very well - they are in the top half of the NBA in field goals and three pointers made, they move the ball well and they rebound very well, especially on the offensive glass. On defense, they allow the 6th fewest rebounds, 7th fewest offensive rebounds, 7th fewest defensive rebounds, 9th fewest assists, and 6 fewest field goals allowed. They are a top 10 defense in the league, aside from allowing the 17th most three pointers in the NBA, the only major weakness that can be exploited. They are also well coached with Brad Stevens at the helm. However, despite all this talent, if the Brooklyn Nets are healthy and KD, Harden, Irving and Griffin are all playing, they will be a difficult team to defend, no matter how much talent any team has on their roster. The Nets are the best offense in the league, finishing 2nd in points, 6th in field goals made, 7th in 3 pointers made, 1st in field goal percentage, 3rd in 3 point percentage, 7th in assists and they don’t turn the ball over often. However, statistically speaking, the Nets are middle of the pack in most of the major defensive categories, but they are the 3rd best defensive rebounding team, top 10 in blocks, and they are tough to shoot against, allowing the 6th best field goal percentage. They also have a very knowledgeable coach in Steve Nash, who knows how to win and how to adapt. I have the Nets winning in 6 games, but the Celtics won’t go down without a fight and will constantly adapt to better match up with the Nets. The Nets have to be ready to make adjustments too.

Heat vs Bucks: As a rematch of the 2020 Eastern Conference Finals, this series is guaranteed to not disappoint. Giannis Antetokounmpo and the Bucks have had a phenomenal season finishing 3rd in the East at 46-26, and Antetokounmpo averaged 28.1 points, 11 rebounds and 5.9 assists this year, which is nothing short of spectacular. The Heat have had a really good season with a 40-32 record and are looking to make another deep playoff run after making the NBA Finals in the 2020 bubble. For the past two seasons, the Bucks finished with the best record in the NBA but lost in the conference finals; this season, they have their sights set on the a championship. The Bucks upgraded their point guard position by adding Jrue Holiday, who’s incredible passing ability spreads out the floor and creates space for him and his teammates to shoot. They also acquired center P.J Tucker at the trade deadline for more versatility and switchability on defense and for his rebounding and passing on offense. This move was a steal for the value they got him for. The Bucks have changed their offense, spacing the floor more with frequent ball movement to create open shots and they still attack the glass aggressively. On defense, they fell down the board in a lot of the statistical categories and so they added more speed and versatility in the front court to be more effective defending screen actions, pick and rolls and sending help to shooters. They are also playing a lot more zone. However, the Bucks have to be prepared to adapt their defense in the playoffs for whatever offensive lineup they are facing. For the Heat, despite being the 6th seed, they still have many pieces left from their trip to the NBA Finals last season. They still have Jimmy Butler, who is a game changer on both sides of the ball with his shooting, play making and rim protection. He did not play in any of the regular season games vs the Bucks, that will be a massive boost for the Heat. Bam Adebayo, Tyler Herro and Goran Dragic are only getting better and Andre Iguodala is a huge help on defense. The Heat are still a top 10 defense, which is top 5 in fewest points allowed, good on the glass, great at causing turnovers (they are 5th best) and have the 8th best defensive rating. Their only real weakness is allowing a lot of threes, which the Bucks aren’t really known for. One big question is how the Heat use Adebayo defensively. He is a great switcher on ball screens and he is one of the best big men to defend guards, even one-on-one. However, when he switches onto guards, one of the Heat guards will be put into a tough position guarding a big man. Antetokounmpo can cause a lot of problems if he is defended by a guard - so HC Erik Spolestra will have to be wary of where Adebayo is defensively. So, there is a possibility of an upset, especially if the Bucks lack mobility from their big men and give up open looks to a strong Heat offense, but I’ll give the slight advantage to the Bucks. They aren’t as great defensively as last year, but the Heat aren’t as good offensively as last year. The Bucks are still very strong offensively after their trade deadline acquisitions and the Heat will have some mismatches on defense if Adebayo switches frequently. The Bucks will win in 7 games.

Hawks vs Knicks: What a season for the New York Knicks. This is the first time the Knicks have had a winning record since 2012-13, the first time they made the playoffs since 2012-13 and they did so with an impressive 41-31 record, good enough for 4th in the East which gives the Knicks a home court advantage vs the Hawks. This was all thanks to the talent they have on their roster with guys like Julius Randle, who has had a career year, R.J Barrett, Immanuel Quickley, Obi Toppin, and Nerlens Noel, among others. The Hawks have quietly had a solid year thanks to guys like Trae Young, Clint Capela, Bogdan Bogdanovic, Danilo Gallinari and Tony Snell, who is the first 50/50/100 player in NBA (51% FG, 57% 3pt FG and 100% FT). This will be an entertaining series as the both teams are snapping long playoff droughts (New York 2013 and Atlanta 2017) and are looking to advance past the first round for the first time since 2013 (Knicks) and 2016 (Hawks). The Knicks swept the season series vs the Hawks 3-0 and dominated all of those games. But don’t write off the Hawks just yet as they are more than capable of adapting both their offensive and defensive schemes to better match the Knicks in the playoffs. The Knicks have been the best defense in the league and it’s been that way all season long. They allowed the fewest points per game in the NBA with 104.7, the fewest number of opponents’ field goals, the lowest opponents’ field goal percentage and the lowest opponents’ three point percentage. At 107.8, they have the 3rd best defensive rating in the NBA and they can cause turnovers and prevent other teams from moving the ball around and getting assists. Against a pretty talented Hawks’ offense, who is top-10 in the league in scoring, averaging 114.3 points per 100 possessions/per game and that can rebound well, move the ball well, shoot well from the field and from 3, get to the free throw line frequently and who doesn’t turn the ball over, the Knicks will have to be at the top of their game defensively to limit the production from the stars of the Hawks, like Young, Capela, and Galinari. Expect head coach Tom Thibodeau to switch between man and zone coverage and even switch to small-ball to add more mobility on defense. The Hawks also have a lot of talent on defense, but they are in the middle of the pack in most of the statistical categories, including finishing in the bottom half in the league (18th) in defensive rating 112.1 and points allowed per game. While the Knicks certainly have the talent to win close, defensive games, if they can match their offensive output against the Hawks - they averaged 124.3 points per game vs the Hawks, compared to averaging 107 points per game in general - they will be a threat. The Knicks win in 6 games.

Grizzlies vs Jazz: The Utah Jazz are coming off one of their best seasons since the Karl Malone and John Stockton era after finishing 52-20, which is the best record not only in the Western Conference, but also the entire NBA. In addition, they are one of the most complete teams in the NBA, with a lot of talent in every position on their roster, and they finished the season with the 3rd best offense and the 3rd best defense in the NBA. They are one of the favourites to come out of the Western Conference and to win the NBA title. The Memphis Grizzlies, despite having considerably less playoff experience than the Golden State Warriors, played excellent, disciplined defense all night long constantly doubling Steph Curry and causing 21 turnovers in an exhilarating game where their young superstars like Ja Morant, Dillon Brooks, Kyle Anderson and Xavier Tillman all had monster games. Steph Curry still had a whopping 39 point night, but it would have likely been 60+ if it weren’t for the Grizzlies’ tremendous defensive play. However, despite their excellent performance last night, the Grizzlies are in the middle of the pack offensively and defensively with the 15th best offense and 16th best defense in the NBA. Couple the huge advantage the Jazz have on both the offensive and defensive side of the ball with the Jazz roster, that is arguably more talented than the Grizzlies’ roster (even though the Grizzlies have a lot of talent and a bright future) with guys like Donovan Mitchell, Rudy Gobert, Joe Ingles, Mike Conley and Bojan Bogdanovic, among others and the fact that the players on the Jazz have a lot more playoff experience than the young players on the Grizzlies, it makes me believe the Jazz will win this series. Undoubtedly, both of these teams are very talented and if the Grizzlies play like they did tonight, anything can happen, but with all the talent on the Jazz roster - on both sides of the ball - and with the tremendous playoff experience gap between both teams, it’s hard to see the Grizzlies win this series. I have the Jazz winning the series in 5 games.

Lakers vs Suns: After a thrilling 103-100 win over the Warriors in the play-in tournament, the Lakers have clinched the 7th seed in the West. The Lakers did not look very good without LeBron James and Anthony Davis but still played great defense and their bench players stepped up and played well offensively to win some games even without James and Davis. With James and Davis this team has only gotten better. The dynamic duo on average adds another 50 points per game to the Lakers and only boosts their defensive efficiency. The Lakers have the 2nd best defense in the league. They allow the 2nd fewest points per game, they are top 5 in fewest rebounds and defensive rebounds allowed. They allow the 5th fewest field goals, 3rd fewest three point field goals, are top 5 in blocks and turnovers and are top 10 in both opponents’ field goal percentage and opponents’ field goal percentage. They also have the best defensive rating in the league. However, the Suns are a very well-rounded and talented team on offense with great players like Devin Booker, Chris Paul, and Deandre Ayton, among others. They move the ball around a lot and very effectively, they have the 3rd most assists in the league and have the 4th fewest turnovers in the league. Great passing leads to lots of open looks. As a result, they shoot well from everywhere, they are 2nd best from field goal percentage and 7th best 3 point field goal percentage. They are also top 10 in points in the league and have the 5th best offensive rating. They cause turnovers on defense and have a strong transition game to generate offense. The Suns have the 7th best defense in the league. They allow the 7th fewest points per game, are top 10 in defensive rebounds and allow the 9th fewest rebounds and 6th fewest offensive rebounds. Not allowing opponents to get many 2nd chance points helps their transition game flourish. They are top 5 in fewest assists allowed and they can read plays and limit opponents’ chances on defense. They are middle of the pack in opponents’ field goal percentage and top 5 in opponents’ 3 point field goals. Despite all the talent on the Lakers’ roster, they are statistically the 12th best offense in the league. They can shoot well, rebound well and they move the ball well to generate open looks. Despite all the talent on the Lakers’ roster, especially with James and Davis, the Suns have had an excellent season at 51-21 and despite having less playoff experience than the Lakers, their offense matches up well with the Lakers’ defense and I’ll give the edge to the Suns’ defense over the Lakers’ offense, (especially if they contain Lebron and AD like the Warriors did in the first half of the play-in game). I have the Suns winning in 7, despite LA being favoured to win the series.

Blazers vs Nuggets: The Nuggets have had an extremely good season, finishing 47-25, good enough for third place in the West. Despite losing their star point guard Jamal Murray to an injury, the Nuggets still finished the season strong, thanks to an MVP caliber season from Nikola Jokic and guys like Michael Porter Jr. and Aaron Gordon have been a strong supporting cast for this team aiding on offense and defense. However, the Blazers are red-hot finishing the season with an incredible 10-2 record to finish the season 42-30. They are a team that no-one wants to play in the playoffs as a result of their excellent shooting and playmaking ability on offense and their great defensive play. Both of these teams have a lot of talent and the winner of this series can surprise a lot of teams later in the playoffs. Both of these teams are top 10 offensively in the NBA. Portland is one of the best offensive teams in the league who finished 5th in points for, the fewest turnovers and had the 2nd best offensive rating. The Nuggets are top 10 in almost all the major offensive statistics. Furthermore, both of these teams have strong transition games, shoot the ball well, move the ball around well and do not turn the ball over very much either. However, where the real statistical difference is on the defensive side of the ball - the Blazers finished in the bottom half of the league in the majority of the major defensive categories, meanwhile, the Nuggets, are a top 10 defensive team when it comes to the majority of the defensive categories. This is where the Nuggets have a considerable advantage. The Nuggets are a very good rebounding team, allowing the fewest rebounds, the 4th fewest offensive rebounds and they got the 2nd highest amount of defensive rebounds. They are also top 10 in turnovers caused and steals and they have a strong transition game to get easy looks on offense. They allow the 7th fewest field goals, but they allow a lot of three pointers, which is a big strength for the Blazers. The Blazers are middle of the pack in rebounding, both offensive and defensive, 23rd and 20th for opponents’ field goal and 3 point percentage respectively and have the 2nd worst defensive rating. Despite the season Damian Lillard and the Trail Blazers have had, despite their offensive prowess, and despite all the talent on their roster, I do believe a very talented Nuggets’ offense will use their skill and depth to take advantage of a lackluster Blazers’ defense despite the injury to Jamal Murray. The Nuggets win in 6 games, and are a threat to go to the Western conference finals. The Blazers will steal 2 games with incredible performances from Lillard, C.J McCollum and Norman Powell.

Mavericks vs Clippers: Both of these teams have a lot of talent on their roster and a lot to prove. Last season everyone was hyping up a Lakers vs Clippers Western Conference Finals matchup and many thought the Clippers would be the only team that would be able to upset the Lakers. Unfortunately, the Clippers blew a 3-1 series lead to the Denver Nuggets in the semis and people haven’t taken them seriously in the playoffs since. They have a lot to prove and will need to make a deep run to remove the criticism. The Mavericks lost a close, evenly matched 4-2 series to the Clippers last season, despite missing Kristaps Porzingis for 3 of those games and they will have the chance to exact their revenge. Both of these teams are top 10 in the league offensively and this matchup has the potential to be one of the highest scoring series in the first round and in the entire postseason. These two teams are both so talented offensively and are so well matched, this will be a great series. After having the 3rd seed in the West for the majority of the season, there is speculation that the Clippers purposely lost games to avoid the Lakers who were 6th seed at the time. But who knows, maybe they were just resting guys for the playoffs? The Mavericks have been electric recently winning 11 of 15 entering the playoffs which helped them guarantee a top 6 seed to avoid the play-in tournament. The Mavericks have only gotten better and more consistent as the season went on and Luca Doncic, Kristaps Porzingis, and Tim Hardaway Jr., all had fantastic seasons. However, the Clippers are one of the best offensive teams in the NBA this year, only the Nets and Blazers had a better offensive rating. The Clippers led the league in three point percentage, and free-throw percentage and they hit the most amount of catch-and-shoot threes from the corner. Nine Clippers players shot at above 40% from both the field and from the arc, eight of which even shot at over 45% from the field. It’s not only Kawhi Leonard, Paul George, Patrick Beverly and Demarcus Cousins, but the Clippers have a really deep team and their bench ranked fourth for most points per game, top for 3-point percentage and fifth in assists. If the Mavericks want to win, Luka Doncic needs to play the best basketball of his young career. He continues to dazzle with his passing and shooting abilities and his defensive skill. He averaged 27.7 points, 8.6 assists, 8 rebounds this season, which is slightly lower than last season, however, he shot at a higher clip from the floor (47.9%) and from three (35%). He has the ability to win games on his own, however, if the Mavericks can play good defense, double team shooters, get good production from their bench as well as their starters and play small to have more mobility on defense to prevent threes, the Mavs can win this series. In addition, both teams have top 10 defenses both in terms of points allowed, opponents’ field goals allowed and they both can rebound well with their size and have quick guards to run the floor in transition for easy looks. However, the Clippers’ defense is the 4th best in the league, the Mavs have the 9th best defense. Both teams are evenly matched offensively, are well coached and have a lot of talent, however, the Clippers’ superior defense will get stops when it needs to and allow their offense to outpace the Mavs’ offense. This series will be close, I got Clippers in 7.

       Regardless of what happens, this is going to be an exciting first round with tons of interesting matchups. I can’t wait to watch. 

     An article with conference semifinals, conference finals and NBA finals predictions will be up after the previous round ends and before the new rounds commence. Stay tuned.