By: Adamo Marinelli
May 16, 2021
With the NHL playoffs fast approaching, I will take a brief look at each series in each round and eventually predict who will be crowned the Stanley Cup Champion. Let’s begin with round 1.
With the way the divisions and playoff bracket are laid out, there will be one Canadian team that is guaranteed to be playing in the conference final and will have a good shot at the Stanley Cup. Let's start with the North division.
Montreal Canadiens vs Toronto Maple Leafs: The Maple Leafs are by far the better team on paper after winning their division for the first time in 21 years. Also, the Habs kind of sleep-walked to the playoffs, finishing the season 3-5-3, but the magic about the playoffs is that anything can happen. Auston Matthews has had an incredible season and with 41 goals is the favourite to win the Rocket Richard trophy. The Leafs have no problems scoring effectively on offense, they are 6th in the NHL with 186 goals. All four of their lines can contribute, but their first line is the deadliest with Matthews, Marner, and Thorton. Where the Leafs have struggled with in years past is defense in the playoffs. If Freddie Andersen makes a full recovery before the playoffs, the Leafs will get consistent goaltending. They’ll just need to play well in front of Andersen by limiting shots against, chances against, opponents’ offensive zone time, and by controlling possession. For the Habs, Carey Price who’s excellent performance in net often carries the Canadiens to relevance, has been injured this season and while still playing well, has not had his best season registering a 2.64 GAA and .901 SV%. They are not the most talented team but have a lot of talent offensively and defensively. If they can score a few goals and play solid defense in front of Price, they can be a tough-out. Another strategy for the Habs is special teams. The Leafs struggle a lot on the penalty kill, they are the 8th worst in the league. The Habs have a power play that is ranked in the middle of the league and can do some damage. The Leafs also have a power-play that is ranked middle of the league but they give up a lot of short-handed goals, which the Habs can take advantage of. The Habs’ special teams have improved since acquiring Dominic Ducharme as the head coach. I say the Habs keep it close, but the Leafs win in 6 games.
Winnipeg Jets vs Edmonton Oilers: This is going to be an entertaining series. The Oilers have had an incredible season, and so has their best player Connor McDavid who has 104 points in 56 games played, an incredible feat that is likely to earn him the Art Ross and Hart Trophy. Sure, when most people look at the Oilers, they picture a two-man roster consisting of McDavid and Leon Draisatl, however, the Oilers have depth all over their roster which has helped them finish atop the North Division. Both the Oilers and Jets have excellent goaltenders, Mike Smith and Connor Hellebuyck have both had excellent seasons. Great goaltending by both of these guys will help out both teams’ defense and may alter the series in favor of one team. The Oilers are known for their ability to score with any of their lines, especially their first line. If the Jets are unable to contain McDavid, Draisaitl, Jesse Puljujarvi, and Kailer Yamamoto among others, the Jets will get themselves into some deficits, even if Hellebuyck stands on his head. Another question is if the Jets will be able to maximize the production of their top guys. Patrick Laine was traded after an okay season, and Pierre Luc Dubois has been underwhelming with only 20 points in 40 games. Blake Wheeler, Kyle Connor, and Mark Scheifele also need to have a good series. Both teams have very efficient power-plays, the Oilers have a 28.1% efficiency, the best in the league, and the Jets have a pretty good 23.1% efficiency. Both teams’ penalty kill units - who haven’t been elite, but have been solid this year - will need to play well to keep their team alive in the series. This will not be a blowout by any means. Good goaltending and solid defense keep the Jets in the series, but the Oilers win in 6.
Islanders vs Penguins: The last time these two teams met in the playoffs, the Islanders swept the Penguins in the first round of the 2019 playoffs. The Islanders are a great team and started the season really well, but have cooled down a bit since. The Islanders still have a great team on both sides of the puck, are well-coached, and play great defensive hockey. They control the puck well, win the puck battles, and are good at limiting shots and opponents’ offensive zone time. On offense, they have a lot of talent but after losing captain Anders Lee to an injury, they acquired Kyle Palmieri and Travis Zajac in a trade with the New Jersey Devils to increase offensive depth. Both Zajac and Palmieri weren’t as productive as New York would have liked and the Islanders scored only 35 goals in the final 16 games, going 6-7-3. The Islanders can score but are 20th in goals scored with 152. They win games with their defense, only allowing 125, 2nd fewest in the league. However, the Islanders have struggled this season against the Penguins, recording a 2-4-2 record against the Penguins. The Penguins are a deep, fast, and talented team. It’s not like if you shut down one guy, you’ll win the series. They have a lot of guys that can score and make plays and they do not make a lot of mistakes on offense. In fact, they have 193 goals, which is good for 2nd in the NHL. The Penguins play pretty decent defense as well but two concerns would be their inconsistent goaltending and their bottom-5 penalty kill which could be tested if the Islanders’ power-play heats up. Also, the Penguins have a top 5 powerplay in the league, but thanks to their defense and good goaltending, the Islanders have a top 5 penalty kill. So the Penguins can score, the Islanders can defend, this series will come down to special teams and goaltending. I believe the Islanders win in 7.
Bruins vs Capitals: Even though the Capitals have the home-ice advantage, the Bruins are regarded by many as the favourites in this series. The Bruins are entering the playoffs strong with a healthy roster and added depth on offense and defense after acquiring Taylor Hall, Curtis Lazar, and Mike Reilly at the deadline. After the trade deadline, the Bruins’ 5-5 scoring has drastically improved. It is currently ranked second in the league after being one of the worst in the league before the start of the season. This helped the Bruins finish the season 12-4-1 and should help them excel in the playoffs. The Capitals are a good team and do have explosive offensive talent especially with Alex Ovechkin but are without several players including Evgeni Kuznetzov F (Doubtful), Ilya Samsonov G (Questionable), T.J. Oshie F (Questionable), John Carlson D (Probable), Michal Kempny D (Questionable). Boston is a very fast, skilled, and deep team so if the Capitals’ injury problems persist, it could be a steep hill to climb. This will be a physical series, with many goals by both teams. Tukka Rask remains to be one of the best goalies in the NHL. He has a lot of playoff experience - 93 games - and has been excellent in those games registering a 2.2 GAA and a .926 SV%. The Capitals’ back-ups will need to match his play if they want to remain competitive in this series. The Bruins made the Cup Final a few years ago thanks to secondary scoring, they will need that again if they want to make another deep playoff run. The question is will Hall and their other trade deadline acquisitions provide that secondary scoring? So far, Hall’s production has been good and he’s helped improve the play of his lineman Krejci. But will it continue? I believe the Capitals upset the Bruins in an exciting 7 game series.
Predators vs Hurricanes: The Hurricanes were a good team during their conference finals run in 2019. They’ve only gotten better since. They are built from the goalie out, and the trio of Alex Nedeljkovic, Petr Mrazek, and even James Reimer has provided stellar goaltending all season long. Their young core has only gotten better with speedy, savvy, and talented forwards in Sebastian Aho, Jordan Staal, and Teuvo Teravainen. In addition, drafting Andrei Svechnikov in 2018, trading Victor Rask for Nino Niederreiter, and trading for Vincent Trocheck gives them a big three at the center position. They are 11th in the league with 175 goals scored and can score both at even strength and on the powerplay. On defense, after acquiring Dougie Hamilton and Brady Skjei in recent seasons, the Hurricanes have a great defensive core that not only limits’ opponents’ scoring chances but can also generate offense in the transition attack by creating turnovers. The Hurricanes are a very good team, well-coached, and have a pretty good shot to win the Cup. The Predators have a good team, but it will be a challenge to match up with all of their talent and depth at the forward position, even with the talented group of defensemen the Predators have. Their defense is what got them to the Stanley Cup Finals in 2017 and despite only having 3 members left of that impressive defensive core: Roman Josi, Ryan Ellis, and Mattias Ekholm, they have surrounded those veterans with some promising young talent that have played very well this season. This blue line can block shots, cause turnovers, win puck battles, and is dangerous in the transition game. They are also physical with guys like Mark Borowiecki and Erik Gudbranson. However, a big weakness for the Predators is their penalty kill. The Hurricanes have one of the best power plays in the league and Rod Brind'amour being an excellent coach will find many ways to outsmart this defense. Their defense and Pekka Rinne’s great play will keep the series close, but the Hurricanes will close it out in 6 games.
Lightning vs Panthers: The battle of Florida. This will be quite an interesting series between two talented teams with lots of promise and who are both looking to go on a deep playoff run. This will also be the first-ever playoff series between these two squads which will make it even more interesting. The Lightning have been a dangerous team offensively, even without Nikita Kucherov and Steven Stamkos both out with injury. They are both projected to return to the lineup before game one. Now, it is not certain if they will both be at 100% but regardless, they add a ton of talent to this already talented roster and I’m sure the Lightning would rather have them in the lineup than out. Sure, the Lightning are defending champions, who have a lot of playoff experience, great scoring ability, good defense, and great goaltending with Andrei Vasilevsky and Anders Nilsson, the Panthers are by no means a team to scoff at. They have a home-ice advantage in this series after finishing with an incredible 37-14-5 record, 4 points above the Lightning in the Central division. The Panthers do not have nearly as much playoff experience in the playoffs, but still, have the talent and depth to make a big run. The Panthers are well-coached under Joel Quenneville, who’s won multiple Stanley Cups. They are a great defensive team, allowing only 153 goals against, the 9th fewest in the NBA, and have a lot of talent on offense, with guys like Alexander Barkov, Sam Bennett, Anthony Duclair, Jonathan Huberdeau, and Patrick Hornqvist among others. They’ve also scored 189 goals, the 5th most in the league. They are a dual-threat team with talent on both sides of the puck and have a solid goalie in Sergei Bobrovsky who has lots of playoff experience. The only question for the Lightning is whether Stamkos and Kucherov will be 100% effective, for the Panthers it is who will back up Bobrovsky between the pipes and who will replace the injured Ekblad on defense. This will be a close series. I have the Panthers upsetting the Lightning in 7.
Blues vs Avalanche: The Colorado Avalanche are fresh off their franchise’s 3rd President’s Trophy win after finishing the season with 82 points, an outstanding feat. However, they could be tested early by a Blues’ team that still has a lot of pieces left from their Stanley Cup-winning team a few seasons ago. The Avalanche are heavy favourites in this series, finishing 19 points above the Blues in the West Division, but the Blues are no joke considering their amount of playoff experience. They also have 17 players on their roster that have won the Stanley Cup. Both teams have a lot of talent, especially on offense and they each have at least one game-breaker. Nathan McKinnon is having another great year, scoring over 20 goals for the 4th straight season. He has the potential to change any series for the Avalanche. He has a lot of playoff experience too, with 20 goals and 34 assists in 40 postseason games. The Blues have a Conn-Smythe trophy winner as their game-breaker, in Ryan O’Reilly. He was the most valuable player in the 2019 playoffs helping the Blues to a Stanley Cup and leads the team in goals scored this season with 24. He can hurt any team’s defense. Both teams have really good defensive cores as well, which will be very important considering the offensive ability of both teams. The Avalanche are averaging 3.33 goals per game in the playoffs since 2018, only the Oilers have more with 3.75 goals per game. The Blues have had one of the best playoff power plays in recent years, scoring on 23.2% of their power plays. David Perron has 21 points on the powerplay, with 6 goals, 15 assists. Jaden Schwartz is another great player on the Blues with 54 playoff points, an all-time record on the Blues. X-factors would be Nazem Kadri on the Avalanche, who plays better when the stakes are higher, and Torey Krug who is an excellent defenseman who isn’t afraid to get involved offensively with 11 goals, 41 assists in 75 playoff games. If the Avalanche continue to get production not only from their starters but also their depth guys, get excellent goaltending from Grubauer and play good defense they will win. I think the Blues will give the Avalanche a scare, with their excellent scoring ability and powerplay and Binnington will play well, but the Avalanche will win in 7.
Wild vs Golden Knights: This will be another interesting playoff series, and it will be closer than many people think despite the Golden Knights being highly favored. After all, Vegas did have a losing record to the Wild last season, going 3-4-1 against them. In a head-to-head matchup with the Avalanche last week, the Golden Knights did have a chance to win the President’s Trophy but due to injuries were only able to play 15 skaters and they lost a close 2-1 game. All the pressure is on the Golden Knights, the Wild have nothing to lose as a first-round underdog, they are just hoping to go on a run. Both teams have underwhelming powerplay units, but both teams have a top-10 penalty kill unit. The Wild are 81%, 9th best in the league, the Golden Knights have 87% the best in the league. So, the powerplay for both teams will likely not play a big role. The Wild have by far exceeded their pre-season expectations. Their goaltending has been above average with Cam Talbot and Kappo Kahkonen, their team defense is good, they limit high-quality shots and chances, cause turnovers, disrupt opponents’ passes in the neutral zone and they are very good at controlling possession time. However, Vegas was a point away from winning the President’s Trophy for a reason. They are an elite group on offense and defense, with talent all over their roster including two excellent goalies in Marc Andre Fleury and Robin Lehner, both veterans who have a lot of playoff experience. The Golden Knights in their brief history have had a lot of playoff experience and success making a Stanley Cup finals in 2018 and a Western Conference finals in 2020. They are top 10 in goals scored and are top 10 in fewest goals allowed. Despite the losing record against the Wild and the .500 record against the Avs, the Golden Knights have a ton of talent all over their roster, are well-coached and they play a fast-paced game, and can match up with almost any opponent. They may not make the Western Conference Finals, but they will win this series in 6 games.
This will be an interesting and very exciting first round, and I’m excited to watch.
As soon as the first round of the playoffs is over, I will publish an article making my predictions for the round 2 matchups.
Regardless of what happens in the first round, my Stanley Cup Champion pick is the Colorado Avalanche. I believe they beat the Hurricanes in 7 games. So unless they are shockingly upset in round 1, I will have them winning every series.
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