By: Adamo Marinelli
May 29, 2021
After a very interesting first round packed full of entertaining matchups, the battle for the Stanley Cup has been reduced to 8 teams. Which teams will move on to the conference finals for a chance to compete for the Stanley Cup. In this article, I will analyze all the matchups and predict who will advance to the conference finals.
Islanders vs Bruins: The Islanders and Bruins are both very complete teams and won their first-round series in six games and five games respectively. The Islanders are talented on both sides of the puck but rely on their defense to win hockey games. They allowed only 125 goals against in the regular season, the 2nd fewest in the league. That equates to allowing 2.23 goals against per game, 2nd fewest in the league, and they only allow 28.39 shots against per game. They win games by limiting opponents’ chances and shots on goal; causing turnovers in the neutral zone and in their defensive zone; controlling possession time; and finally, being very effective in the faceoff circle. Against the Penguins, they showed their tremendous offensive skill. Like at the beginning of the regular season, they got scoring from all of their lines. They have a lot of depth and it helped them control play. They are not the best offensive team but still recorded 2.85 goals per game and averaged 29.19 shots per game, they can get lots of shots to the net. The Islanders’ penalty kill and powerplay have both been good all season. The Islanders scored on 18.75% of their power plays this season, a top-10 mark in the league. Their penalty kill was 2nd best in the league, killing a whopping 83.70% of their penalties. Their dominance on special teams continued in the playoffs. They only allowed 3 powerplay goals, killing 75% of the Penguins’ power plays against a very strong Penguins’ power play. It will need to remain top-notch to beat the Bruins in round 2. The Bruins beat the Capitals thanks to an excellent special teams unit, great play from Tukka Rask, and their depth. They needed to get scoring from not only their superstars: Patrice Bergeron, Brad Marchand, David Pasternak, but also secondary guys like Taylor Hall, Jake Debrusk, David Krejci, and Curtis Lazar among others. The Bruins struggled to get scoring from their depth guys and struggled to get scoring at even strength earlier in the season, but have since improved very much. The Bruins are another great defensive team, allowing 136 goals, the 4th fewest in the league. That equates to 2,39 goals against per game, tied for 4th best in the league. They also only allow just over 27 shots a game, they have a strong defense that limits opposing offenses’ chances and attacking zone time. They control possession time, create turnovers, and have a great transition game to turn defense into offense. Like the Islanders, the Bruins are in the middle of the pack in terms of goals scored, but they do have the talent on their roster to score goals. They score 3.02 goals per game (13th best) and average 33.43 shots per game while scoring on 22.35% of their power plays, a top 10 figure in the NHL. They are a fast and creative team in the offensive zone. Both teams are very well-coached with Barry Trotz and Bruce Cassidy, are solid in net, play very good defense, have a lot of offensive talent and goal-scoring capabilities, and have a top 10 power play (Bruins have the 5th best and the Islanders have the 8th best) and the Bruins have the 5th best penalty kill, the Islanders have the 11th best. Honestly, this series will be a close, defensive battle and will come down to who is more effective on special teams, who can play better defense, who can control possession time more effectively, and which team can win the goalie battle. I believe the Islanders will beat the Bruins in 7 games with their slight defensive edge, despite having a slightly worse special teams unit.
Canadiens vs Jets: The Montreal Canadiens have completed an epic comeback. After being down 3 games to 1, everybody figured the Toronto Maple Leafs had finally exorcised their round 1 demons. But typical Maple Leafs, their lack of killer instinct was their Achilles heel and the Leafs could not close out the series, despite being the much better team, despite being favored to win, and despite having three games to try to eliminate the Habs. Now, arguably the worst team in the playoffs - no disrespect to the Habs, they played very well - will move on to face the Jets, who exposed the Oilers’ lack of depth behind their superstars Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl and swept the Oilers 4-0. The Jets have had a lot of rest and are ready for the Canadiens. However, after the Habs dismantled the Leafs, they are looking to make headlines again, for causing another playoff upset and for the chance to play in the final four. The Jets are favoured to win this series, rightfully so, as they are the more talented team, but as we saw with the Leafs, you cannot take the Habs for granted, because they have a lot of grit and do not give up. The Jets finished the regular season with the 10th best defense in the NHL. They gave up only 2.71 goals against per game, 30.59 shots per game, they’ve given up 29 powerplay goals against on 149 opponents’ power-play attempts, killing an impressive 80.54% of their power plays, which is the 13th best PK in the league. The Montreal Canadiens are a middle of the pack defensively, ranking 18th in the league. They are giving up 2.95 goals against per game, 28.20 shots per game, and they’ve allowed 37 power-play goals against on 172 attempts, killing about 78.49% of their penalties. The Jets and Canadiens both play a physical style of defense that controls the pace, the time of possession, and limit opponents' shots against and chances. The Jets have more talent and have the better defense and penalty kill, but both teams are capable. The Jets shut down the Oilers, even McDavid, and Draisaitl, and the Habs shut down the Leafs’ stars. On offense, the Jets were the 12th best offense in the league. They had the 7th best power play in the league, converting on 23.39% of their power plays. They scored 3.07 goals per game, and recorded almost 30 shots per game. They have a talented offense that wins puck battles, generates a lot of chances, is good on the faceoff circle, and can get scoring from everyone. They have a lot of depth, and some of their depth guys like Adam Lowry, Matthew Perreault, Mason Appleton look like 1st and 2nd liners sometimes. The Habs are the 22nd best offense in the league. They convert on 18.34% of their power plays, on average, they score 2.74 goals per game, and average almost 31 shots per game. They have a lot of talent offensively and are a fast, creative team. They generate a lot of chances and turn defense into offense with their strong transition game. Both Connor Hellebuyck and Carey Price had phenomenal seasons. Hellebuyck finished 24-17-3, with a 2.58 GAA, a .912 SV%, and 4 shutouts. Price finished 25-12-7, with a 2.64 GAA, a .901 SV%, and 1 shutout. In the playoffs, both goalies have been amazing too. Price was amazing all series long and kept the Habs alive in the series. He allowed 16 goals in 7 games, had a 2.24 GAA and a .932 SV%. Hellebuyck was great too and made short work of the Oilers. He allowed 8 goals in 4 games, had a 1.60 GAA and a .950 SV%. Both teams are well-coached as well. However, the Jets have the better defense, the better offense, the better special teams unit, and the better coach. The Habs will keep it close (like they did en route to upsetting the Leafs) especially with stellar play from Carey Price, but the Jets will win the series in 6 games.
Hurricanes vs Lightning: The Hurricanes and Lightning both won their first-round series in 6 games and are both very good teams that are competing for a Stanley Cup. Both teams had a top-5 defense in the regular season and both of these teams have a top 10 defense so far in the playoffs. Both of these teams are also very strong offensively. The Hurricanes ranked 11th in the league in goals per game with 3.13 while averaging over 32 shots per game. Their real talent is on the powerplay. The Hurricanes have the 2nd best power play in the NHL this season, scoring 42 powerplay goals, and converting on 25.61% of their power play opportunities. The Tampa Bay Lightning have also been incredible on offense this year despite being without their best offensive player Nikita Kucherov all season long and Steven Stamkos for a portion of the year. The Lightning offense averaged 3.21 goals per game, which is tied with the Minnesota Wild for 7th best in the league and they also averaged 30.21 shots per game, and scored 40 powerplay goals, converting 22.35% of their powerplay chances, which is 9th best in the league. The Lightning offense only got better in the playoffs with Stamkos and Kucherov back. The Lightning have been the 2nd best playoff offense averaging 4 goals per game, 31.17 shots per game, and scoring on 40% of their power-play chances in the postseason. Both Stamkos and Kucherov had an excellent first round. Kucherov finished with 3 goals, 8 assists, and 11 points and was huge on special teams, registering 7 of his 11 points on the powerplay. Stamkos had 3 goals, 5 assists, and 8 points. Unlike most teams in the playoffs, who rely on their defense to win, these two teams rely on the plethora of offensive talent and their excellent power plays to win games. However, both their defenses are still good. The Hurricanes allowed only 2.39 goals against, tied with the Bruins for 4th best in the league, allowed 28.23 shots against, allowed 26 powerplay goals and killed an impressive 85.23% of their penalties, which ranks third-best in the NHL, which will be huge against a very talented Lightning power play that ripped the Panthers’ defense apart in round one. The Lightning allow only 2.59 goals per game, 5th best in the league, 28.27 shots against per game, allowed 29 powerplay goals against and their penalty kill is also good, killing 84.15% of their penalties. In addition, both teams have elite goaltending. Andrei Vasilesvskiy is still one of the best goalies in the league for Tampa Bay and the Hurricanes can rely on both Petr Mrazek and Alex Nedeljkovic who have both had great seasons. Nedeljkovic was solid in round one, but will need to be even better against the electric Lightning offense in round 2, which doesn’t generate a ton of chances, but can score because of their depth. Vasilesvskiy will need to be solid too, as the Hurricanes have a lot of offensive talent, depth and get scoring from their entire roster. Both teams are incredibly well-coached as well, with Rod Brind’amour behind the bench for the Hurricanes and John Cooper behind the bench for the Lightning. Both of whom can adapt to any situation their team finds themselves in and are very creative. With Stamkos and Kucherov, the Lightning are the slight favourites. However, with the Hurricanes’ excellent scoring abilities, their physical defense that does not allow a lot of chances and creates turnovers, their excellent powerplay and penalty kill units, and their goaltending - which is just as good as the Lightning’s - the Hurricanes will win a close, evenly matched series in 7 games. Game 7 will be decided in double overtime.
Golden Knights vs Avalanche: At the beginning of the season, both of these teams were Stanley Cup favourites. As the top 2 seeds in the league, this series has the potential to be the best in the entire playoffs. This series is going to be very close as these are two of the best, most well-rounded, and evenly matched teams in the NHL. Vegas has been the best defensive team this season, allowing only 2.18 goals against per game, 27.27 shots against per game and they have a fantastic penalty kill, killing a whopping 86.81% of their penalties, only allowing 19 powerplay goals to their opponents. They have also been the 3rd best defense in the playoffs. In their 7 game series in round 1, they allowed only 1.86 goals per game, the 3rd lowest among all playoff teams, 24.86 shots per game, the fewest among all playoff teams, and they've allowed 2 power-play goals against, killing almost 82% of their penalties. They play a physical type of defense that wins loose puck battles, limits opponents’ time of possession and shot opportunities, they cause a lot of turnovers ranking in the top 10 in the NHL in that category, and aren’t afraid to lay their body around. The Avalanche are also very talented defensively. They were the 3rd best team defensively during the regular season. They’ve allowed only 2.36 goals against per game, and 25.41 shots against per game, the fewest in the league. Their penalty kill is pretty efficient as well, killing just over 83% of their penalties and allowing only 30 powerplay goals to opponents on 177 chances. In the playoffs, their defense is just as sharp, allowing 1.75 goals against per game, 27.50 shots against per game, and allowing 2 power-play goals against on 9 attempts, killing 77.78% of their penalties. They also play a gritty style of defense, controlling the time of possession, the pace of the game, the neutral zone, limiting opponents’ offensive zone time and shot attempts, causing turnovers, winning loose puck battles, and turning defense into offense with their strong transition game. On offense, the roles are reversed. The Avalanche have the best offense in the regular season, scoring a whopping 3.62 goals per game, averaging 34.70 shots per game, and scoring on 24.20% of their power plays, 4th best in the league behind Edmonton, Carolina, and Tampa Bay. They have so much talent on their roster, including Nathan MacKinnon - who had an amazing season with 20 goals, 45 assists, and a great first round of the playoffs, with 6 goals and 3 assists - Gabriel Landeskog, Mikko Rantanen, Alex Newhook, Brandon Saad. They have a lot of talent offensively, guys who can score, set up plays and they get scoring from their all-stars and their reserve guys as well. The Golden Knights have the 3rd best offense in the league, averaging 3.35 goals per game, 32.60 shots per game, and they have a good powerplay, scoring on 17.46% of their power plays. They are an elite offensive team with many superstars like Marc Stone, Max Pacioretty, Alex Tuck, Jonathan Marchessault, William Karlsson, and many capable depth guys like Ryan Reaves, Mattias Janmark, Keegan Kolesar, and Cody Glass, among others. They can get scoring from all four lines, not just their first line which shows their immense depth. They are a fast, smart, and skilled team that can set up plays with their creativity, get a lot of chances, and score frequently. Finally, both teams are evenly matched in the net. Vegas has Marc Andrei Fleury and Robin Lehner, two goaltenders with lots of playoff success and the Avalanche have Philip Grubauer and Devan Dubnyk, both are very talented and good under pressure. This series will be close, as both of these teams are very talented on offense and defense, well-coached but I will take the President’s trophy-winning Avalanche to win in 7 games.
Like I said at the end of my last article, my Stanley Cup champion is still the Avalanche, who will defeat the Carolina Hurricanes in a close, tough 7 game series. My conference finals predictions article will be up before the series start.
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