Offensive turnovers, especially on their own side of the field, and the lack of impact plays on defence by Broncos among many other things are big factors in their ugly 0-3 start. This is the first time since 1999, the year after their back-to-back Super Bowl wins, that the Broncos have started 0-3.
Denver boasts a defensive-minded bench boss in Vic Fangio, two dominant edge rushers in Von Miller and Bradley Chubb, a good inside pass rush and a mid-tier secondary; yet has still found themselves playing from behind in all three games so far this season. This in turn has prevented the pass rush from getting going, which is why the Broncos have zero sacks and zero interceptions through three games, dead last in the league. Playing from behind has also caused the Broncos to move away from the run and rely more on the pass game, which explains Flacco’s many touches. But Lindsay and Freeman still had a great game in week 3.
It can be argued that all three the Broncos’ games were very winnable. They were one drive short in Oakland but multiple penalties, holding in particular, took them out of field goal range several times and red-zone struggles kept them out of the endzone on multiple occasions. They were outplayed on special teams as well, getting a better average field position to start each drive and they two good kick returns on special teams that led to points. The Raiders’ defence also caused more quarterback pressure than the Broncos’ defence.
In Chicago, Denver again struggled to really move the ball effectively until the last few minutes of the game when they took the lead 14-13. Penalties continued to taunt the Broncos, a lack of pass protection from the injured offensive line disrupted Flacco’s rhythm and led to several key sacks that took points off the board for Denver. Playing from behind again, the Broncos moved away from the run game to try to get big pass plays downfield. Good coverage by the Bears secondary allowed their pass rushers to unleash fury on Flacco. Flacco has not been the problem for the Broncos but has not been excellent either, throwing only two touchdowns and two interceptions this season, being sacked 11 times. Of course, after the Broncos took the lead, there was a controversial ‘roughing the passer’ call on Bradley Chubb that gave Chicago a first down close to midfield. On fourth down with seconds left, they got a completion downfield and were able to call a timeout with 1 second left despite the clock clearly hitting 0:00. However, the Broncos shouldn’t have left the receiver wide open.
The Broncos played their best defensive game against Green Bay at Lambeau. However, turnovers killed the Broncos. Turnovers, especially on your own side of the field goes against Vic Fangio’s ‘death by inches’ mantra. The Broncos had a fumble inside their own 5 yard line and inside their own 40 yard line, both lead to Green Bay touchdowns. Both of these fumbles happened on consecutive drives, right before and after half time. This would give the Packers a two score lead early in the third quarter. Another terrible holding call against Denver, this time on Emmanuel Sanders, prevented a touchdown and quite possibly a 14-10 halftime lead for Denver. Instead it was 24-10 for Green Bay midway through the third quarter. The Broncos’ offence moved the ball very well up and down the field all game long, unlike in their first two games; and their defence did a great job containing the run and limiting Aaron Rodgers to only one TD and 235 passing yards but the two fumbles, Green Bay’s six sacks and an interception from Flacco on a poorly thrown ball when Denver was driving late in the third quarter with a chance to tie the game 24-24 sealed Green Bay’s victory. You can’t expect a defence to stop a good offence when they start at your own 5 yard line. The Broncos shot themselves in the foot again and again and the refs made some questionable calls (holding on Sanders) which resulted in them falling to 0-3 and the Packers improving to 3-0.
Since 1980, a team that has started 0-3 has only a 3.4 percent chance to make the postseason. Only 6 of 176 teams since 1980 have rallied to make the playoffs after starting 0-3, including the 2018 Houston Texans who started 0-3 and won 9 straight games to finish 11-5. So the Broncos’ playoff chances seem dull but it is not impossible.
To start their comeback, they will have to beat the Jacksonville Jaguars and their star rookie quarterback Gardner Minshew, the leader of ‘mustache mania’. This is a daunting task because Minshew has posted a 73.8% completion percentage and a QBR of 110.6 the best performance of any rookie’s first three games in the Super Bowl era. He has 5 TDs, 1 INT and nearly 700 pass yards but he doesn’t make mistakes or cause turnovers. He puts his offence in a position to score and lets his defence take care of everything else. They had nine sacks in their week three win over the Titans and won the line of scrimmage which is a bit intimidating for a Denver offensive line that has been much better at run than pass protection and that is short a few starters in particular, right tackle Ja’Wuan James. The Broncos will have to hold off the Jaguars’ edge rushers and strong inside rush from players like Calais Campbell, an ex Bronco. Hopefully, the Broncos generate some pressure on Minshew and force him to make a mistake as that could be the difference between a 1-3 vs a 0-4 season. As well as generating pressure on Minshew (which might be a little difficult on the inside with Jewell and Wolfe questionable), the secondary needs to keep playing well even with injuries to safety Kareem Jackson who his questionable and Bryce Callahan who is listed as out for this game. As they say, ‘next man up’. Hopefully Bausby and Yiadom can be the next men up. Not to mention Denver needs to have a balanced attack between the run and the pass and Flacco needs to get the ball out quickly so the offensive line doesn’t have to block all day. It will be a tough task, but Denver can get the job done if they make no mistakes. Essentially it is a must win game for the Broncos.
