Ottawa Redblacks 2021 season preview and predictions

By: Adamo Marinelli

July 28, 2021

     After the 2020 CFL season was canceled due to COVID-19, the 2021 season is set to start on August 5th. The 2021 season will be abbreviated to 14 games instead of the usual 18, however, for the players, fans, and the league, the return of the CFL is a dream come true. For fans in the nation’s capital, they cannot wait for a chance to get the poor taste of 2019 out of their mouths.

     The Redblacks finished the 2019 season with a 3-15 record, worst in the East Division. Their lackluster season was caused by several factors including a quarterback carousel, plenty of injuries, an offensive coordinator by committee, and a conflict between head coach Rick Campbell - who has been the coach since day one in 2014 - and general manager Marcel Desjardins among other things.

      Before the 2019 season, the Redblacks made three Grey Cup championships from 2015-2019 and they won one in November 2016, beating the favoured Calgary Stampeders 39-33 in an overtime thriller. 

     How will they do this season after an extended break? First, let’s take a look at notable free-agent acquisitions, recent draft picks, and players who retired, who were traded, or signed elsewhere in free agency. 

      The Redblacks did lose several veteran players like wide receiver Brad Sinopoli (retirement), defensive lineman Ettore Lattanzio (retirement), and offensive linemen Alex Mateas (retirement), Evan Johnson (traded to the Saskatchewan Roughriders), and Jason Lauzon-Séguin (retired) among others who all played key roles in the Redblacks’ Grey Cup win and their three appearances. 

     However, the Redblacks added a lot of talent in the previous offseasons and drafts. Wide receiver Jalen Saunders - who is now on the retired list after being in a car accident in May 2021 - recorded 1,170 yards and four touchdowns for the Hamilton Tiger-Cats in 2017, which was his best season in the league thus far. He will likely be able to play at some point this season, although he likely won’t be healthy for the season opener. 

     Grey Cup Champion quarterback Matt Nichols will likely start the season under center. Nichols is a great quarterback who is patient, has good pocket awareness, has a strong arm, is accurate, and doesn’t make many mistakes. 

     Finally, the Redblacks also added ex. NFLers like Brandon Hitner to strengthen their offensive line and cornerback Dominique Hatfield to add to a secondary consisting of Sherrod Baltimore and Antoine Pruneau among many other notable names.

     In addition, they also drafted pretty well in both 2020 and 2021 selecting guys like defensive backs Adam Auclair - brother of Super Bowl 55 champion Antony Auclair - and Alonzo Addae, defensive linemen Michael Hoecht and Reshann Davis, offensive linemen Jakub Szott, Connor Berglof, and Matthew Derks and linebacker DeShawn Stevens among others. 

     The Redblacks drafted pretty well and addressed some major weak spots like their defensive line, linebacker core, and their offensive line but should have probably drafted a few offensive skill players like wide receivers, slot receivers, and running backs in 2020 and 2021.

     But, the Redblacks are starting to look more dangerous on offense. They are adding more skill players onto their roster through free agency and trades. Their running back core consists of Brendan Gillanders, Anthony Coombs, and Timothy Flanders. These guys aren’t exactly household names yet but have the potential to develop their talent with time and reps.

     Their receiver core consists of R.J Harris, Nate Behar, Devonte Dedmon -who had a career year in 2019-, and Anthony Coombs. Throw in Jalen Saunders - who is a weapon when healthy - and QB Matt Nichols will have a lot of options to throw to this coming season. Saunders and Coombs, who is a deadly pass-catcher out of the backfield, will add a lot to the Redblacks’ passing game after the organization did not address the position in the last two drafts. Also, the young guys like Dedmon will only get better as time goes on.

     Not to mention, the Redblacks still boast an offensive line with a lot of talent. A lot of key players like Jon Gott, Jason Lauzon-Séguin, and Alex Mateas have all retired and Evan Johnson was traded to Saskatchewan but they still have talent and depth with guards Nolan MacMillan and Jakub Szott and tackles Mark Korte and Na’Ty Rodgers. The only glaring hole is at center after Mateas retired, but one of the guards will likely shift over to center at training camp. The Redblacks have a lot of talent and depth on the o-line, someone will fill the hole at the center position. 

     When the Redblacks’ offensive coordinator Jamie Elizondo left the team in April 2019 to pursue an opportunity in the XFL after the Redblacks prevented him from the opportunity to interview for head coach, the team was forced to go with an offensive coordinator by committee which alongside the QB carousel, caused the lackluster performance in 2019. Offensive-minded Paul LaPolice - who has shown he can run an excellent offense in his stint at OC in Winnipeg - will call the offense as well as having the head coach responsibilities. This will significantly improve the Redblacks’ offensive production, efficiency and keep drives alive.

     This is a young team, especially on offense. According to Oddsshark, the Redblacks are the worst-rated offense in the CFL. With so much youth, it will take time for this offense to develop into a threat for opposing defenses, however, this is a group with a lot of talent and potential and is very well-coached. It can exceed expectations.  

     Under new management by recently hired head coach Paul LaPolice - who has two Grey Cups on his resume as an assistant coach and after a long hiatus - the 2020 season was canceled due to COVID-19 - there will be some bug fixes and areas of struggle that need improvement throughout the season. The team will not be perfect. But they have a lot of potential to be a playoff contender and the talent to do so as well.

     The Redblacks are not new to overcoming adversity, and neither is LaPolice who has a very long and impressive resume. 

     According to Oddshark, the Redblacks are also the worst defensive team in the CFL. However, these numbers are from the 2019 season where they struggled immensely in almost every major category. They ranked last in yards against per game with 415.4 and points allowed per game with 31.3. Not only could they not stop their opponents on offense, but they also struggled to take the ball away and disrupt their opponents’ rhythm finishing last in the league with only 12 interceptions and second last in the league with 28 sacks.

     This defensive core has a lot of talent and has gone through a major overhaul since we’ve last seen them take the field. It is also well-coached and they’ve adapted their scheme to better fit the personnel they have.

     Their defensive line, secondary and linebacker core all boast a lot of talent and have developed chemistry together at training camp this summer.

     The Redblacks will now run a base 4-3 defensively and their front seven has the talent and athleticism to cause opposing offensive lines a lot of nightmares if they get going.

     Veteran Avery Ellis is back with the team at defensive end alongside Frank Beltre. They both can rush the passer, get off blocks and stop the run. Davon Coleman brings a high football IQ and a veteran presence to the defensive tackle spot and Cleyon Laing is a veteran with NFL experience, quickness, strength, and excellent burst off the line.

     The Redblacks have a lot of depth at middle linebacker and weakside linebacker with guys like Avery Williams, Adam Auclair, Jerod Fernandez among others but will have to show that their depth can be used to generate sacks and turnovers as well as limit the opposing team’s rush offense; something they were unable to do effectively and consistently in 2019. Their slot linebacker spot needs to be addressed before the season starts, either by trade, a free agent signing, or one of their faster middle or weakside linebackers could transfer to slot linebacker to cover faster slot receivers.

     Their secondary is also filled with talent and could surprise a lot of people this year. Their cornerback room is filled with experienced leaders like Randall Evans and De’Chavon Hayes on the outside and Sherrod Baltimore and Corey Tindall in the slot. Their safety group is also quite notable with longtime Redblack Antoine Pruneau and Justin Howell playing free and strong safety respectively. This group has caused a lot of havoc for many CFL offenses in years prior and can again this season.

     This defense could be a top 3 unit this season led by veteran defensive coordinator Mike Benevides who previously had success during stops in Edmonton and BC. This defense is talented on paper from top-to-bottom, the question is will they be able to produce more than they did in 2019 and get crucial stops for their team.

     Not to mention the Redblacks have one of the best special teams units in the entire league. Placekicker Lewis Ward is one of, if not the best, placekickers in the CFL. Between 2018 and 2019, Ward set a professional football (includes both CFL and NFL) record with 69 consecutive field goals made. The previous record was Adam Vinatieri with 44. He finished the 2018 season making 51/52 field goals, registering an outstanding 98.08 percent efficiency, and has the longest field goal in Ottawa football history (Redblacks, Renegades, and Roughriders) with a 56-yard boot in a 33-12 loss against the Tiger-Cats in October 2019.

     Also, Richie Leone is an incredible punter who can always help out his defense by flipping the field. In 2019, when the offense could hardly ever get going, he punted 132 times totaling 5179 yards, averaging 48.4 yards per punt.

     Finally, Devonte Dedmon is a threat on both the punt and kick returns, with his speed, agility, explosiveness, and elusiveness. In 2019, he returned 38 punts and kickoffs, collecting 881 total yards and two TDs. That's beyond impressive. In 2021, he will only improve his skill set and production.

     To conclude, after evaluating their roster, coaching staff, notable trade and free-agent additions, draft picks, and departures, let’s take a look at their schedule for the 2021 season and predict their record. 

     Their schedule is interesting as they have two of their three byes before week eight. That’s not ideal in a normal season but perhaps in a condensed 14 game season with a diminished training camp and no preseason games to scout young talent and make final roster and schematic changes, it will give LaPolice and his staff time to adapt and make any necessary adjustments to the scheme or the roster.

     Their week 15 bye will be crucial to rest up for a potential playoff run or a week 16 matchup against the Montreal Alouettes which could play a role in who wins the East Division and the East Division standings.

     The Redblacks do not play an East Division opponent until a week five clash with the Alouettes but they will finish their season playing seven of their last nine games against East Division rivals. Even if they start their season slowly, they have the chance to control their own destiny entering the playoffs.

     They will open the season in Edmonton against the Edmonton Elks and will faceoff against many familiar faces like quarterback Trevor Harris, wide receiver Greg Ellingson, and Elks' head coach Jamie Elizondo. They will be looking to start the season strong with a win to put the rest of the league on notice. 

     Their home opener will be in week three against the BC Lions. It will be the first live sporting event with fans (except the Ottawa BlackJacks) since the Ottawa Senators played the New York Islanders at the Canadian Tire Center on March 5, 2020. R-Nation will surely mark their calendars for that day.

     The Redblacks play six games against the West Division. They will play twice against the Elks, twice against the BC Lions, once against the Saskatchewan Roughriders, and once against the Calgary Stampeders.

     They play eight games against their East Division rivals. They will play the Alouettes four times, the Toronto Argonauts twice, and the Hamilton Tiger-Cats twice. 

     They will not play the defending Grey Cup Champion Winnipeg Blue Bombers unless they meet in the playoffs. 

     I believe the Redblacks will finish 8-6, for second place in the East Division behind Hamilton, and make the playoffs. They will meet the Elks in the East Semifinal game, where they lose a thriller.

     This will be a very interesting season for the Redblacks. Coming off a lackluster 2019 season, they have limited expectations to be successful but they possess the talent on both sides of the ball to be a playoff team. I am very excited to see it all unfold. 

It’s coming to Rome!

By: Adamo Marinelli

July 19, 2021

      For the second time in 53 years, Italy are European Champions. In the EURO 2020 final on July 11, they defeated England 3-2 on penalties after tying 1-1 through 120 minutes. 

      After an early goal by Luke Shaw to put England up 1-0 in the second minute - the fastest goal in European Championship history - Italy controlled the rest of the game, handily winning time of possession, controlling the pace, out-chancing England, and registering more shots and shots on target than England. Leonardo Bonucci tied the game in the 67th minute. 

     Goalkeeper Gianluigi Donnarumma - who has been excellent all tournament, registering three clean sheets - made three saves in the penalty shootout to help Italy secure the victory. He was named the Player of the Tournament.

     Roberto Mancini took over as manager in 2018 after Italy failed to qualify for the 2018 World Cup. The last time they missed the World Cup was six decades ago in 1958.

     Mancini’s brilliance - both schematically and in terms of selecting a team with lots of talent and depth at all positions - helped Italy to rebound nicely, regain momentum and return to their winning ways.

      Italy won all seven games at the EUROs - defeating both Turkey and Switzerland 3-0 and Wales 1-0 in the group stage, topping Austria 2-1 after extra time in the round of 16, knocking off number one ranked Belgium 2-1 in the quarterfinals, beating Spain 1-1 (4-2) in the semi-finals and dominating England for the final 115 minutes to win 1-1 (3-2) in the finals.  

      Italy has now won 34 consecutive matches. That streak includes all 10 of their EURO qualifier matches in which they scored 37 goals and only conceded four. Italy has never posted a perfect record in qualifying for a major competition before the EURO qualifiers. They also finished first place in their 2021 Nations League group ahead of the Netherlands and have won all three of their 2022 World Cup qualifier matches that they’ve played so far.

       Before they conceded against Austria, they hadn’t conceded a goal in over 1150 minutes or 12 matches. Before they conceded to England in the final, they hadn’t trailed in over 1750 minutes or about 18 matches.

      They are only one win away from Spain and Brazil who both hold the record of most consecutive matches going unbeaten with 35. Spain did it from 2007-2009 and Brazil did it from 1993-1996. 

      Italy has not lost since a friendly against Portugal in September of 2018.

 

      After a 1-0 aggregate loss to Sweden in the fall of 2017, which caused Italy to miss the 2018 World Cup, and after failing to adapt to a more modern play style, manager Gian Piero Ventura was fired after a 16-month tenure. 

     When Mancini took over in 2018, Giorgio Chiellini, Gigi Buffon, Andrea Barzagli and Daniele De Rossi had all announced their decision to retire. Andrea Pirlo had already retired in late 2017. Only Chiellini would decide to return to play for his country. 

      Despite Italy being at an all-time low, all the hardship they’ve faced, and losing a lot of talent, Mancini brought with him to Italy his 4-3-3 formation which focuses on playing excellent defense that limits opposing shots and shots on goal and sends multiple men to the ball carrier to stop attacks before they start. They also control play in the midfield, often win the possession time battle, and they rely on their transition attack and their speed to turn defense into offense.

      Mancini also brought with him a coaching staff consisting of Gianluca Vialli, the team coordinator; Massimo Battara, the goalkeeping coach; Guilio Nucari, the technical coach; and Fausto Salsano another technical coach. Mancini allegedly would only take the coaching job in Italy if guys like Vialli, Battara, and Nucari were hired with him. 

      Another thing Mancini did well is forming a team identity using the players around him, not forcing a new scheme on the guys. Part of this is because Mancini picked a team with a lot of depth at every position and guys who could fit effectively into his 4-3-3 formation.

      Chiellini and Andrea Bonucci are two of the best center backs in the world as shown in their shutdown performance of every elite striker at the EUROs. Giovanni DiLorenzo and Leonardo Spinazzola are both great outside defenders who prevent opposing offenses from advancing down the flank and at the same time have the speed to bring the ball up the field and start offensive attacks in transition. Spinazzola was a threat on the left side of the offense, which Mancini used a lot during the EUROs to generate scoring chances.

      The midfield consisting of Jorginho, Marco Veratti, and Nicolo Barela are all gifted players and their talents complement each other. Jorginho organizes the play and uses his creativity to set the offense up, Veratti is not afraid to shoot the ball with power and precision and Barela is always using his speed to find open spaces in the defense.

     Lorenzo Insigne and Frederico Chiesa both provide speed, creativity, excellent dribbling, a powerful shot, and play a lot on the flanks which opens up space in the middle for Ciro Immobile who is a real goal-scoring threat. Immobile did not score many goals at the EUROs but was an excellent playmaker.

     Finally, at only 22 years old, Gianluigi Donnarumma is one of the best goalkeepers in the world. His three clean sheets, his skill in penalty shootouts, and winning Player of the Tournament at the EUROs prove it.

     In addition, Italy has many talented substitute players that can fit into Mancini’s scheme very

well and can influence a match as much as any starter. Andrea Belotti is a physical striker who scores a lot and is physical, Emerson and Francesco Acerbi are physical and speedy defenders with great passing abilities, Manuel Locatelli and Matteo Pessina are both excellent midfielders who can set up teammates, generate shots and score too. They each scored multiple goals at the EUROs. Domenico Berardi is a great playmaker and is a threat in the open field.

     Their depth turned out to be extremely important. Veratti didn’t actually start the group stage matches because of an injury, but Manuel Locatelli fit in well with the other 10 starters and played well, scoring twice against Switzerland. Spinazzola who suffered an ACL tear against Belgium in the quarters was replaced by Emerson in the final two games and despite not being on Spinazzola’s talent level, he played well on defense and on the counterattack which helped Italy win both games. Without the depth, who knows if Italy would’ve won it all.

       Their talent, depth, and fantastic coaching all helped Italy win their second European Championship and their sixth major title. They have also won four World Cups (1934, 1938, 1982, and 2006). Italy is one of the most successful nations at the international football level.

      After their triumphant win at EURO 2020, Mancini and his men have their hopes set on the next big tournament. The 2022 Qatar World Cup. 

     After not having played in a World Cup as a player (he was a reserve in both the 1990 and 1994 World Cups), Mancini has the chance to finally coach in one.

Italy is 3-0-0 in World Cup qualifiers so far and their next game is September 2, 2021, against Bulgaria. Italy is favoured to win their group and earn a spot in the illustrious tournament for the first time since 2014.

Coming off their EURO title, they have plenty of talent and momentum and are one of the best teams in not only Europe but also the world. They will be a favourite to win the World Cup if everyone can stay healthy. That would be their fifth title - which would tie Brazil for the most of all time.

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EURO 2020 Final Preview - ITALY vs ENGLAND

By: Adamo Marinelli

July 10, 2020

     The EURO 2020 Finals are finally here. Two of the best teams in the world will battle it out for the right to call themselves European Champions. 

     England has made their first final of an international tournament since the 1966 World Cup after a thrilling 2-1 win over Denmark in extra time of the semifinals.

      Italy is back in the EURO Final for the first time since 2012 after beating Spain 4-2 on penalty kicks after drawing 1-1 after 120 minutes. 

      Italy has now beaten Spain in two consecutive EUROs (in 2016 and 2020) after losing to Spain in 2008 and the 2012 final.

      Italy has been fantastic under manager Roberto Mancini. They have a lot of talent all over their roster and are fantastic on both sides of the ball. 

     They have relied a lot on their excellent defense to win games. They win the possession battle most of the time, they play a physical style of defense that does not allow opponents to get a lot of chances and shots on target. It creates a lot of turnovers by sending multiple men to the ball carrier to disrupt the opposing attack before it starts and excels at starting counterattacks. Giorgio Chiellini and Leonardo Bonucci have been two of the best shut-down center-backs in the tournament. Throw in Giovanni DiLorenzo and Leonardo Spinazzola, both excellent defenders with high soccer IQ, can win battles for the ball and bring the ball up the field to generate offense with their speed and this is an elite defensive core. Francesco Acerbi, Rafael Toloi, and Emerson are all very reliable backups. Emerson played very well against Spain in Spinazzola’s absence, he will likely get the start in the final. Not to mention, at 22 years old, Gianluigi Donnarumma is already one of the best goalkeepers in Europe. Italy has had three clean sheets this tournament and have only surrendered three goals. 

     In addition, their offense has been electric. They have scored 12 goals so far in this tournament and have been able to generate plenty of quality chances with their speed, passing, and transition attack. Guys like Marco Verratti, Jorginho, Nicolo Barrella, Lorenzo Insigne, Ciro Immobile, and Frederico Chiesa make the starting midfield and forward unit a threat to any defense. But backups like Matteo Pessina, Manuel Locatelli, Andrea Belotti, and Federico Bernardeschi are still very talented and can score. Italy has a lot of depth; it is not only their starting 11 that is talented, the subs are too. And they can attack up the left side, the right side, or down the middle. That’s why this team is so dangerous. The roster was picked well by Mancini to ensure they have several talented players in all positions to fit the scheme.

     Italy beat both Turkey and Switzerland 3-0 and Wales 1-0 to finish atop their group with a 

3-0-0 record for nine points. They then beat Austria 2-1 in ET in the round of 16, Belgium 2-1 in the quarterfinal, and Spain 1-1 (4-2) in the semifinals.

      Italy has now won 33 consecutive international matches, the largest streak in club history and one of the longest streaks in international history. They have not trailed for over 1650 minutes and before conceding to Austria, had not conceded in 1150 minutes, or 11 matches. 

     Losing Leonardo Spinazzola is a concern, especially against England’s elite attack with Raheem Sterling and Harry Kane, so Italy will have to play mistake-free defense in their zone and find other ways to limit England’s chances.

     England is also a fantastic football team. They finished first in their group with two wins, one draw, and no losses for seven points. They beat Croatia and the Czech Republic 1-0 and drew 0-0 with Scotland. In the round of 16, they upset Germany 2-0. In the quarters, they dominated Ukraine 4-0 and in the semis, won a 2-1 thriller against Denmark in extra time. 

     Their offense is very smart and crafty, scoring 10 goals in the tournament. In the group stage, they scored twice and did not concede once. They played smart, mistake-free football, which is what they are known for. They did not allow their opponents to get many offensive chances and they capitalized on the offensive chances they created. In their 1-0 win over Croatia, both teams were even in shots, shots on target, and possession time. England won the possession battle against Scotland and the Czech Republic which led to a 0-0 draw and a 1-0 win.  Against Germany in the round of 16, they lost possession time and were outshot, however, they capitalized on their chances while locking down Germany’s ferocious attack to complete the upset. In the quarters against Ukraine, despite only winning possession by a slim margin, they were the better team. They out-chanced and outshot their opponents and controlled the pace the entire game, winning 4-0. In the semis, they conceded their first goal and trailed for the first time. But despite facing adversity, they remained calm, stuck to their game plan, dominated their opponent in possession time, shots, and shots on target, wearing the defense down and their talent eventually helped them prevail 2-1 over Denmark. That is how they win games. They have a lot of talent on offense and on defense but their two superstars were forward Harry Kane and striker Raheem Sterling who scored four and three goals respectively (they accounted for 70% of their team’s offense). 

     Their defense is playing on another level. They have only conceded one goal in the entire tournament and have recorded five clean sheets. That is remarkable. Like Italy, they are a physical group that often wins possession time, does not allow the opposing team to set up, does not surrender a lot of chances and shots on target, and causes turnovers which lead to transition attacks. They always send help to the primary defender who is guarding the ball carrier and it helps to slow down and stop opposing attacks before they start. They are not usually known for their defense, but it is a big reason why they are in the finals. Finally, their goaltender Jordan Pickford is one of the best in the game. Finally, like Mancini, their manager, Gareth Southgate is very creative and smart. He knows how to counter and beat his opponents and can help his team adapt to respond to any situation. His team was picked well and has depth at all positions.

     For Italy to win, they will have to prevent England from gaining momentum in the offensive zone by winning the possession battle and wearing down England’s defenders; Chiellini and Bonucci will need to prevent Harry Kane and Raheem Sterling from creating scoring chances in the middle of the offensive zone, and they will need to turn defensive stops into counter-attacks. 

     For England to win, they cannot allow Italy to control possession and the pace of the game; they cannot allow Italy to attack in transition all game long, and their young offensive talent will have to find a way to get past Italy’s fantastic defenders. They have to control possession time to try to tire out the Italian defense which will open holes up top for Sterling.

     This will be a fantastic game to watch as two of the best European teams square off in the finals of what has been an excellent tournament so far. 

     Italy leads the head-to-head with England 11-8-8 and are the favourites against England because of their stellar defense but anything can happen.

I predict a 2-1 Italy win in a thrilling game. Italy wins their second EUROs and England's drought continues.

2021 NBA Finals Prediction

Adamo Marinelli

July 5, 2021

The last time the Milwaukee Bucks made the NBA Finals was in 1974. The last time the Phoenix Suns made the NBA Finals was in 1993.  

     The last time the Bucks won the NBA championship was in 1971 with Kareem Abdul Jabbar, who was the Finals MVP. The Suns have never won an NBA title in their franchise’s 52-year history. 

     This season, one team’s long championship drought will come to an end. 

     The Bucks swept the Miami Heat in the first round of the playoffs, upset the second-seeded Brooklyn Nets in a thrilling seven-game series in the second round, and defeated Trae Young and the Hawks in six games in the ECF, despite being without their super-star Giannis Antetokounmpo in games five and six.

     The Suns cruised past the Los Angeles Lakers in six games in their first-round series, they showed their elite talent by sweeping Nikola Jokic - the 2021 NBA MVP - and the Denver Nuggets in the second round and they overcame a strong Los Angeles Clippers team, winning their WCF series in six games despite losing all-star Chris Paul to the COVID-19 protocol. 

     This series will be very close. This matchup contains two teams that are elite both on offense and defense, two teams that are very well-coached, and two teams with a lot of talent on their rosters that match up well with each other. 

      Chris Paul has never won an NBA championship and has never made the NBA Finals. Giannis Antetokounmpo is in his first NBA Finals after several years of playoff disappointment. 

     The Suns beat the Bucks in both games of their regular-season series, but it was by a combined margin of only two points. One of the two games went to overtime. 

     The key storyline of the playoffs is will Giannis Antetokounmpo be healthy enough to play in the NBA Finals? They were able to beat the Hawks in games five and six of the ECF without their superstar thanks to their depth, but the Suns are in the Finals for a reason - they have a lot of talent, depth and are very well-coached. 

     Chris Paul and Devin Booker have both been spectacular in the postseason. Booker has averaged 27 points, 6.4 rebounds and 4.8 assists per game in 16 games this postseason and Chris Paul has averaged 18.7 points, 8.7 assists and 3.9 rebounds in 14 games this postseason. The Suns also got phenomenal play on both sides of the ball from their big man center Deandre Ayton, Jae Crowder, Mikhail Bridges, and Cameron Payne - who played well in Chris Paul's short absence in the WCF. The Suns have a lot of depth - which helps them win games in various ways, whether by hitting all their shots and lighting it up offensively or by winning games with their lockdown defense.

     The Suns have been one of the best defensive teams in the regular season and in the playoffs. The Suns were the seventh-best defense in the regular season and have only improved in the playoffs. They are the second-best team defensively in the postseason with a defensive rating of 107.6 and they only allow opponents to score 102 points per game, the second-fewest in the league. They average 6.3 steals and 4.3 blocks per game and they are a fantastic rebounding team. They average 35.8 defensive rebounds per game - they record 74 percent of their defensive rebounds - which means they do not give up a lot of offensive rebounds to opponents thanks to their length and dominance in the paint. They only gave up 11.9 second-chance points per game to opponents, the second-fewest among teams in the playoffs. They play strong defense on the perimeter and in the paint, only allowing opponents 42.8 paint points per game. Ayton has played a big role in their strong paint defense. They do not turn it over a lot, but when they do, they play excellent transition defense only giving up 12.5 points to opponents off turnovers, the fewest in the league

     

     The Bucks are also a great defensive team. They have had the best defense this postseason with Mike Budenholzer behind the bench. They have the best defensive rating of 105.0 and only gave up 101.3 points per game, the fewest in the league. They average 37.2 defensive rebounds per game - they come away with 76.2 percent of their defensive rebounds. Their length and ability to read plays helps them block shots and cause turnovers. They record 7.8 steals and 4.5 blocks per game, they lead the NBA in both categories. They only give up 11.6 second-chance points per game, their domination of the paint does not allow teams to get a lot of offensive rebounds. They allow 38.3 paint points per game to opponents, the fewest in the NBA. They play a physical style of defense and do not let opponents take their time to set up offensively. They limit opponents’ good looks and they are able to play excellent defense on the perimeter with speedy, athletic guys like Jrue Holiday, Khris Middleton, and P.J Tucker - who can shut down anyone - even big forwards and centers - all while being able to guard the paint with Brook Lopez and Giannis Antetokounmpo, who can also move off screens to guard outside.

     The Bucks are also talented offensively and have a lot of depth to score in many different ways. Antetokounmpo and Lopez are both strong and love to drive the rim and shoot close-range jumpers. Khris Middleton, Jrue Holiday, P.J Tucker, and Donte DiVincenzo can shoot from mid-range and hit three-pointers with great efficiency. They get to the line often as well, but Antetokounmpo has struggled from the charity stripe this season. They are a team that moves the ball around a lot to cause a mismatch on the floor and to create an open shot. Antetokoumpo has played great in all 15 postseason games where he was healthy enough to play, averaging 28.2 points, 12.7 rebounds, and 5.2 assists while shooting 55.1 percent from the field. Middleton has been fantastic as well in all 17 playoff games for the Bucks, averaging 23.4 points, 8 rebounds, and 5.1 assists. Lopez and Holiday were crucial offensively as well, but Giannis and Middleton are the gas that fuels the Bucks’ engine.

      Chris Paul, who did not look like not himself in the first few games back after he returned from the COVID-19 Health and Safety Protocols before the WCF, played lights out in games five and six to close out the Los Angeles Clippers. The entire team played well around him.

 

     Giannis Antetokounmpo exited game four of the ECF against the Hawks with a hyperextended left knee that caused him to miss games five and six, however, he avoided any major structural damage which indicates his injury will be evaluated on a day-to-day basis and he will likely be available for game one of the NBA Finals on July 6 after a few extra days of rest. However, it is not guaranteed he will be back for game one - even if he is, he may not be exactly 100 percent - his health will be a major factor in this series. The Suns’ defensive and offensive schemes will change a lot depending on whether or not Antetokounmpo is playing. As of now, Antetokounmpo is doubtful for game one.

     In terms of both teams matching up, I see Deandre Ayton and Brook Lopez covering each other. I see Devin Booker and Jrue Holiday covering each other. I see Chris Paul and Khris Middleton guarding each other. I see Giannis Antetokounmpo and Jae Crowder. 

     The Bucks will have to rely on their stellar defense to slow down the Suns’ red-hot backcourt, consisting of Devin Booker - who is now receiving comparisons to Kobe Bryant after his amazing playoff run - and Chris Paul - who is now being considered one of the best point guards of all time. Holiday was excellent defensively the entire ECF series - except in game one where he gave up 48 points to Trae Young - he’ll have to lock down Booker and force him to take low percentage shots. Middleton will have to be good against Paul, a crafty veteran who can pass and shoot and P.J Tucker - who has proven he can guard anyone - can also help defend either of those guys one-on-one. Lopez may play zone under the basket, which will force Antetokounmpo onto Ayton and Tucker onto Crowder. 

     The Suns, in addition to trying to overpower the Bucks’ defense with their speed, ball movement, excellent shooting, and good transition game also have a lot to worry about with the Bucks being so good defensively. They will have to force either Lopez or Antetokounmpo into uncomfortable positions like getting off screens and rolling out to help defend the perimeter, which will open up shooters and space under the bucket for their offense. On defense, their bigs will have to out-rebound the Bucks’ bigs to prevent giving up second-chance points and to extend their own offensive possessions. In addition, they will have to cause turnovers and force the Bucks into late shot clocks and to take difficult, low percentage, contested shots.

     This will be a very close series as both teams have a lot of talent on their roster, are excellent on both sides of the ball (especially on defense), and are both well-coached. The Suns’ Monty Williams and the Bucks’ Mike Budenholzer are two of the best coaches in the league that can adapt on the fly to give his team an advantage.

     However, I believe Chris Paul and Devin Booker will be too much to handle for the Bucks’ defense, especially if they are without Antetokounmpo for an extended period of time. They combine for 68 points to win game seven and Chris Paul gets his illustrious first NBA championship.