By: Adamo Marinelli
July 10, 2020
The EURO 2020 Finals are finally here. Two of the best teams in the world will battle it out for the right to call themselves European Champions.
England has made their first final of an international tournament since the 1966 World Cup after a thrilling 2-1 win over Denmark in extra time of the semifinals.
Italy is back in the EURO Final for the first time since 2012 after beating Spain 4-2 on penalty kicks after drawing 1-1 after 120 minutes.
Italy has now beaten Spain in two consecutive EUROs (in 2016 and 2020) after losing to Spain in 2008 and the 2012 final.
Italy has been fantastic under manager Roberto Mancini. They have a lot of talent all over their roster and are fantastic on both sides of the ball.
They have relied a lot on their excellent defense to win games. They win the possession battle most of the time, they play a physical style of defense that does not allow opponents to get a lot of chances and shots on target. It creates a lot of turnovers by sending multiple men to the ball carrier to disrupt the opposing attack before it starts and excels at starting counterattacks. Giorgio Chiellini and Leonardo Bonucci have been two of the best shut-down center-backs in the tournament. Throw in Giovanni DiLorenzo and Leonardo Spinazzola, both excellent defenders with high soccer IQ, can win battles for the ball and bring the ball up the field to generate offense with their speed and this is an elite defensive core. Francesco Acerbi, Rafael Toloi, and Emerson are all very reliable backups. Emerson played very well against Spain in Spinazzola’s absence, he will likely get the start in the final. Not to mention, at 22 years old, Gianluigi Donnarumma is already one of the best goalkeepers in Europe. Italy has had three clean sheets this tournament and have only surrendered three goals.
In addition, their offense has been electric. They have scored 12 goals so far in this tournament and have been able to generate plenty of quality chances with their speed, passing, and transition attack. Guys like Marco Verratti, Jorginho, Nicolo Barrella, Lorenzo Insigne, Ciro Immobile, and Frederico Chiesa make the starting midfield and forward unit a threat to any defense. But backups like Matteo Pessina, Manuel Locatelli, Andrea Belotti, and Federico Bernardeschi are still very talented and can score. Italy has a lot of depth; it is not only their starting 11 that is talented, the subs are too. And they can attack up the left side, the right side, or down the middle. That’s why this team is so dangerous. The roster was picked well by Mancini to ensure they have several talented players in all positions to fit the scheme.
Italy beat both Turkey and Switzerland 3-0 and Wales 1-0 to finish atop their group with a
3-0-0 record for nine points. They then beat Austria 2-1 in ET in the round of 16, Belgium 2-1 in the quarterfinal, and Spain 1-1 (4-2) in the semifinals.
Italy has now won 33 consecutive international matches, the largest streak in club history and one of the longest streaks in international history. They have not trailed for over 1650 minutes and before conceding to Austria, had not conceded in 1150 minutes, or 11 matches.
Losing Leonardo Spinazzola is a concern, especially against England’s elite attack with Raheem Sterling and Harry Kane, so Italy will have to play mistake-free defense in their zone and find other ways to limit England’s chances.
England is also a fantastic football team. They finished first in their group with two wins, one draw, and no losses for seven points. They beat Croatia and the Czech Republic 1-0 and drew 0-0 with Scotland. In the round of 16, they upset Germany 2-0. In the quarters, they dominated Ukraine 4-0 and in the semis, won a 2-1 thriller against Denmark in extra time.
Their offense is very smart and crafty, scoring 10 goals in the tournament. In the group stage, they scored twice and did not concede once. They played smart, mistake-free football, which is what they are known for. They did not allow their opponents to get many offensive chances and they capitalized on the offensive chances they created. In their 1-0 win over Croatia, both teams were even in shots, shots on target, and possession time. England won the possession battle against Scotland and the Czech Republic which led to a 0-0 draw and a 1-0 win. Against Germany in the round of 16, they lost possession time and were outshot, however, they capitalized on their chances while locking down Germany’s ferocious attack to complete the upset. In the quarters against Ukraine, despite only winning possession by a slim margin, they were the better team. They out-chanced and outshot their opponents and controlled the pace the entire game, winning 4-0. In the semis, they conceded their first goal and trailed for the first time. But despite facing adversity, they remained calm, stuck to their game plan, dominated their opponent in possession time, shots, and shots on target, wearing the defense down and their talent eventually helped them prevail 2-1 over Denmark. That is how they win games. They have a lot of talent on offense and on defense but their two superstars were forward Harry Kane and striker Raheem Sterling who scored four and three goals respectively (they accounted for 70% of their team’s offense).
Their defense is playing on another level. They have only conceded one goal in the entire tournament and have recorded five clean sheets. That is remarkable. Like Italy, they are a physical group that often wins possession time, does not allow the opposing team to set up, does not surrender a lot of chances and shots on target, and causes turnovers which lead to transition attacks. They always send help to the primary defender who is guarding the ball carrier and it helps to slow down and stop opposing attacks before they start. They are not usually known for their defense, but it is a big reason why they are in the finals. Finally, their goaltender Jordan Pickford is one of the best in the game. Finally, like Mancini, their manager, Gareth Southgate is very creative and smart. He knows how to counter and beat his opponents and can help his team adapt to respond to any situation. His team was picked well and has depth at all positions.
For Italy to win, they will have to prevent England from gaining momentum in the offensive zone by winning the possession battle and wearing down England’s defenders; Chiellini and Bonucci will need to prevent Harry Kane and Raheem Sterling from creating scoring chances in the middle of the offensive zone, and they will need to turn defensive stops into counter-attacks.
For England to win, they cannot allow Italy to control possession and the pace of the game; they cannot allow Italy to attack in transition all game long, and their young offensive talent will have to find a way to get past Italy’s fantastic defenders. They have to control possession time to try to tire out the Italian defense which will open holes up top for Sterling.
This will be a fantastic game to watch as two of the best European teams square off in the finals of what has been an excellent tournament so far.
Italy leads the head-to-head with England 11-8-8 and are the favourites against England because of their stellar defense but anything can happen.
I predict a 2-1 Italy win in a thrilling game. Italy wins their second EUROs and England's drought continues.
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