NHL 2020 Playoff Predictions - Round 2

By: Adamo Marinelli

May 29, 2021

     After a very interesting first round packed full of entertaining matchups, the battle for the Stanley Cup has been reduced to 8 teams. Which teams will move on to the conference finals for a chance to compete for the Stanley Cup. In this article, I will analyze all the matchups and predict who will advance to the conference finals.

Islanders vs Bruins: The Islanders and Bruins are both very complete teams and won their first-round series in six games and five games respectively. The Islanders are talented on both sides of the puck but rely on their defense to win hockey games. They allowed only 125 goals against in the regular season, the 2nd fewest in the league. That equates to allowing 2.23 goals against per game, 2nd fewest in the league, and they only allow 28.39 shots against per game. They win games by limiting opponents’ chances and shots on goal; causing turnovers in the neutral zone and in their defensive zone; controlling possession time; and finally, being very effective in the faceoff circle. Against the Penguins, they showed their tremendous offensive skill. Like at the beginning of the regular season, they got scoring from all of their lines. They have a lot of depth and it helped them control play. They are not the best offensive team but still recorded 2.85 goals per game and averaged 29.19 shots per game, they can get lots of shots to the net. The Islanders’ penalty kill and powerplay have both been good all season. The Islanders scored on 18.75% of their power plays this season, a top-10 mark in the league. Their penalty kill was 2nd best in the league, killing a whopping 83.70% of their penalties. Their dominance on special teams continued in the playoffs. They only allowed 3 powerplay goals, killing 75% of the Penguins’ power plays against a very strong Penguins’ power play. It will need to remain top-notch to beat the Bruins in round 2. The Bruins beat the Capitals thanks to an excellent special teams unit, great play from Tukka Rask, and their depth. They needed to get scoring from not only their superstars: Patrice Bergeron, Brad Marchand, David Pasternak, but also secondary guys like Taylor Hall, Jake Debrusk, David Krejci, and Curtis Lazar among others. The Bruins struggled to get scoring from their depth guys and struggled to get scoring at even strength earlier in the season, but have since improved very much. The Bruins are another great defensive team, allowing 136 goals, the 4th fewest in the league. That equates to 2,39 goals against per game, tied for 4th best in the league. They also only allow just over 27 shots a game, they have a strong defense that limits opposing offenses’ chances and attacking zone time. They control possession time, create turnovers, and have a great transition game to turn defense into offense. Like the Islanders, the Bruins are in the middle of the pack in terms of goals scored, but they do have the talent on their roster to score goals. They score 3.02 goals per game (13th best) and average 33.43 shots per game while scoring on 22.35% of their power plays, a top 10 figure in the NHL. They are a fast and creative team in the offensive zone. Both teams are very well-coached with Barry Trotz and Bruce Cassidy, are solid in net, play very good defense, have a lot of offensive talent and goal-scoring capabilities, and have a top 10 power play (Bruins have the 5th best and the Islanders have the 8th best) and the Bruins have the 5th best penalty kill, the Islanders have the 11th best. Honestly, this series will be a close, defensive battle and will come down to who is more effective on special teams, who can play better defense, who can control possession time more effectively, and which team can win the goalie battle. I believe the Islanders will beat the Bruins in 7 games with their slight defensive edge, despite having a slightly worse special teams unit.

Canadiens vs Jets: The Montreal Canadiens have completed an epic comeback. After being down 3 games to 1, everybody figured the Toronto Maple Leafs had finally exorcised their round 1 demons. But typical Maple Leafs, their lack of killer instinct was their Achilles heel and the Leafs could not close out the series, despite being the much better team, despite being favored to win, and despite having three games to try to eliminate the Habs. Now, arguably the worst team in the playoffs - no disrespect to the Habs, they played very well - will move on to face the Jets, who exposed the Oilers’ lack of depth behind their superstars Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl and swept the Oilers 4-0. The Jets have had a lot of rest and are ready for the Canadiens. However, after the Habs dismantled the Leafs, they are looking to make headlines again, for causing another playoff upset and for the chance to play in the final four. The Jets are favoured to win this series, rightfully so, as they are the more talented team, but as we saw with the Leafs, you cannot take the Habs for granted, because they have a lot of grit and do not give up. The Jets finished the regular season with the 10th best defense in the NHL. They gave up only 2.71 goals against per game, 30.59 shots per game, they’ve given up 29 powerplay goals against on 149 opponents’ power-play attempts, killing an impressive 80.54% of their power plays, which is the 13th best PK in the league. The Montreal Canadiens are a middle of the pack defensively, ranking 18th in the league. They are giving up 2.95 goals against per game, 28.20 shots per game, and they’ve allowed 37 power-play goals against on 172 attempts, killing about 78.49% of their penalties. The Jets and Canadiens both play a physical style of defense that controls the pace, the time of possession, and limit opponents' shots against and chances. The Jets have more talent and have the better defense and penalty kill, but both teams are capable. The Jets shut down the Oilers, even McDavid, and Draisaitl, and the Habs shut down the Leafs’ stars. On offense, the Jets were the 12th best offense in the league. They had the 7th best power play in the league, converting on 23.39% of their power plays. They scored 3.07 goals per game, and recorded almost 30 shots per game. They have a talented offense that wins puck battles, generates a lot of chances, is good on the faceoff circle, and can get scoring from everyone. They have a lot of depth, and some of their depth guys like Adam Lowry, Matthew Perreault, Mason Appleton look like 1st and 2nd liners sometimes. The Habs are the 22nd best offense in the league. They convert on 18.34% of their power plays, on average, they score 2.74 goals per game, and average almost 31 shots per game. They have a lot of talent offensively and are a fast, creative team. They generate a lot of chances and turn defense into offense with their strong transition game. Both Connor Hellebuyck and Carey Price had phenomenal seasons. Hellebuyck finished 24-17-3, with a 2.58 GAA, a .912 SV%, and 4 shutouts. Price finished 25-12-7, with a 2.64 GAA, a .901 SV%, and 1 shutout. In the playoffs, both goalies have been amazing too. Price was amazing all series long and kept the Habs alive in the series. He allowed 16 goals in 7 games, had a 2.24 GAA and a .932 SV%. Hellebuyck was great too and made short work of the Oilers. He allowed 8 goals in 4 games, had a 1.60 GAA and a .950 SV%. Both teams are well-coached as well. However, the Jets have the better defense, the better offense, the better special teams unit, and the better coach. The Habs will keep it close (like they did en route to upsetting the Leafs) especially with stellar play from Carey Price, but the Jets will win the series in 6 games.  

Hurricanes vs Lightning: The Hurricanes and Lightning both won their first-round series in 6 games and are both very good teams that are competing for a Stanley Cup. Both teams had a top-5 defense in the regular season and both of these teams have a top 10 defense so far in the playoffs. Both of these teams are also very strong offensively. The Hurricanes ranked 11th in the league in goals per game with 3.13 while averaging over 32 shots per game. Their real talent is on the powerplay. The Hurricanes have the 2nd best power play in the NHL this season, scoring 42 powerplay goals, and converting on 25.61% of their power play opportunities. The Tampa Bay Lightning have also been incredible on offense this year despite being without their best offensive player Nikita Kucherov all season long and Steven Stamkos for a portion of the year. The Lightning offense averaged 3.21 goals per game, which is tied with the Minnesota Wild for 7th best in the league and they also averaged 30.21 shots per game, and scored 40 powerplay goals, converting 22.35% of their powerplay chances, which is 9th best in the league. The Lightning offense only got better in the playoffs with Stamkos and Kucherov back. The Lightning have been the 2nd best playoff offense averaging 4 goals per game, 31.17 shots per game, and scoring on 40% of their power-play chances in the postseason. Both Stamkos and Kucherov had an excellent first round. Kucherov finished with 3 goals, 8 assists, and 11 points and was huge on special teams, registering 7 of his 11 points on the powerplay. Stamkos had 3 goals, 5 assists, and 8 points. Unlike most teams in the playoffs, who rely on their defense to win, these two teams rely on the plethora of offensive talent and their excellent power plays to win games. However, both their defenses are still good. The Hurricanes allowed only 2.39 goals against, tied with the Bruins for 4th best in the league, allowed 28.23 shots against, allowed 26 powerplay goals and killed an impressive 85.23% of their penalties, which ranks third-best in the NHL, which will be huge against a very talented Lightning power play that ripped the Panthers’ defense apart in round one. The Lightning allow only 2.59 goals per game, 5th best in the league, 28.27 shots against per game, allowed 29 powerplay goals against and their penalty kill is also good, killing 84.15% of their penalties. In addition, both teams have elite goaltending. Andrei Vasilesvskiy is still one of the best goalies in the league for Tampa Bay and the Hurricanes can rely on both Petr Mrazek and Alex Nedeljkovic who have both had great seasons. Nedeljkovic was solid in round one, but will need to be even better against the electric Lightning offense in round 2, which doesn’t generate a ton of chances, but can score because of their depth. Vasilesvskiy will need to be solid too, as the Hurricanes have a lot of offensive talent, depth and get scoring from their entire roster. Both teams are incredibly well-coached as well, with Rod Brind’amour behind the bench for the Hurricanes and John Cooper behind the bench for the Lightning. Both of whom can adapt to any situation their team finds themselves in and are very creative. With Stamkos and Kucherov, the Lightning are the slight favourites. However, with the Hurricanes’ excellent scoring abilities, their physical defense that does not allow a lot of chances and creates turnovers, their excellent powerplay and penalty kill units, and their goaltending - which is just as good as the Lightning’s - the Hurricanes will win a close, evenly matched series in 7 games. Game 7 will be decided in double overtime.

Golden Knights vs Avalanche: At the beginning of the season, both of these teams were Stanley Cup favourites. As the top 2 seeds in the league, this series has the potential to be the best in the entire playoffs. This series is going to be very close as these are two of the best, most well-rounded, and evenly matched teams in the NHL. Vegas has been the best defensive team this season, allowing only 2.18 goals against per game, 27.27 shots against per game and they have a fantastic penalty kill, killing a whopping 86.81% of their penalties, only allowing 19 powerplay goals to their opponents. They have also been the 3rd best defense in the playoffs. In their 7 game series in round 1, they allowed only 1.86 goals per game, the 3rd lowest among all playoff teams, 24.86 shots per game, the fewest among all playoff teams, and they've allowed 2 power-play goals against, killing almost 82% of their penalties. They play a physical type of defense that wins loose puck battles, limits opponents’ time of possession and shot opportunities, they cause a lot of turnovers ranking in the top 10 in the NHL in that category, and aren’t afraid to lay their body around. The Avalanche are also very talented defensively. They were the 3rd best team defensively during the regular season. They’ve allowed only 2.36 goals against per game, and 25.41 shots against per game, the fewest in the league. Their penalty kill is pretty efficient as well, killing just over 83% of their penalties and allowing only 30 powerplay goals to opponents on 177 chances. In the playoffs, their defense is just as sharp, allowing 1.75 goals against per game, 27.50 shots against per game, and allowing 2 power-play goals against on 9 attempts, killing 77.78% of their penalties. They also play a gritty style of defense, controlling the time of possession, the pace of the game, the neutral zone, limiting opponents’ offensive zone time and shot attempts, causing turnovers, winning loose puck battles, and turning defense into offense with their strong transition game. On offense, the roles are reversed. The Avalanche have the best offense in the regular season, scoring a whopping 3.62 goals per game, averaging 34.70 shots per game, and scoring on 24.20% of their power plays, 4th best in the league behind Edmonton, Carolina, and Tampa Bay. They have so much talent on their roster, including Nathan MacKinnon - who had an amazing season with 20 goals, 45 assists, and a great first round of the playoffs, with 6 goals and 3 assists - Gabriel Landeskog, Mikko Rantanen, Alex Newhook, Brandon Saad. They have a lot of talent offensively, guys who can score, set up plays and they get scoring from their all-stars and their reserve guys as well. The Golden Knights have the 3rd best offense in the league, averaging 3.35 goals per game, 32.60 shots per game, and they have a good powerplay, scoring on 17.46% of their power plays. They are an elite offensive team with many superstars like Marc Stone, Max Pacioretty, Alex Tuck, Jonathan Marchessault, William Karlsson, and many capable depth guys like Ryan Reaves, Mattias Janmark, Keegan Kolesar, and Cody Glass, among others. They can get scoring from all four lines, not just their first line which shows their immense depth. They are a fast, smart, and skilled team that can set up plays with their creativity, get a lot of chances, and score frequently. Finally, both teams are evenly matched in the net. Vegas has Marc Andrei Fleury and Robin Lehner, two goaltenders with lots of playoff success and the Avalanche have Philip Grubauer and Devan Dubnyk, both are very talented and good under pressure. This series will be close, as both of these teams are very talented on offense and defense, well-coached but I will take the President’s trophy-winning Avalanche to win in 7 games.

     Like I said at the end of my last article, my Stanley Cup champion is still the Avalanche, who will defeat the Carolina Hurricanes in a close, tough 7 game series. My conference finals predictions article will be up before the series start.

UEFA EURO 2021 - Italy’s Roster and Outlook

By: Adamo Marinelli

May 25, 2021

     Italy went a perfect 10-0-0 in their EURO qualifiers and looked like a very well-rounded team. Of course, the competition in their group was not elite, but it was nothing to scoff at. They look very good and are a serious contender to win the EUROs for the first time since 1968.

     For the last few decades, Italy’s international squad has relied on a strong defense - which limits opponents’ chances and causes turnovers - and a strong transition game to generate plenty of quality offensive chances. Their 4-3-3 scheme focuses on defense which leads to turnovers, a plethora of shots, and controlling the time of possession.  

     They do not necessarily always start fast but they are a team that feels out their opponents in the first half and then has a strong second half, taking advantage of their opponents’ weaknesses. Antonio Conte relied on this strategy and now Roberto Mancini does the same thing. It has proven successful for many years, in friendly matches, qualifying matches, and on the international stage.

     The Italian team has undergone a rebuild in the past few years, getting younger at every position. Only 7 of the 33 players on the roster are 30 years old or above. The youth on the team provides speed, versatility, skill, and playmaking. The veterans on the team have a high soccer IQ, can defend well, can shoot well, and pass well. They play the role of on-field coaches, who help the younger guys develop their skills and play well day-in and day-out. 

     Notable players include Gianluigi Donnarumma, who has been phenomenal in net throughout his entire young career; Leonardo Bonucci, Giovanni Di Lorenzo, Alessandro Florenzi, and veteran Giorgio Chiellini on defense; and Andrea Belotti, Lorenzo Insigne, Nicolo Barella, and Federico Chiesa among others in the midfield and upfront.  

     Italy’s coaching staff is also one of the best in football. Roberto Mancini, the current manager, and Antonio Conte, the previous manager, play a similar style that focuses on defense first. Conte used to run a 5-3-2 with wing-backs and speedy players along the sides; Mancini runs a 4-3-3, which relies on defense to shut down opponents, to control time of possession, and to get offensive opportunities in transition. 

     Their group for the EURO 2021 tournament has many favorable opponents. They are in Group A and will play against Turkey, Wales, and Switzerland in the group stage. Realistically speaking, Italy is the best team in their group and should be able to go 3-0-0 in the group stage with their only real competition coming against Switzerland. How will they win those three games? Let’s turn to their recent World Cup qualifier matches.

     So far, Italy has played three World Cup qualifier matches against Northern Ireland, Bulgaria, and Lithuania winning all three of them 2-0. In all of those games, like in their EURO qualifier matches in 2019, they started slow, but their strong defensive play limited their opponents’ shots, shots on target, and possession time. Italy dominated possession time, recording 67%, 68%, and 66% respectively. Their dominance in time of possession helped them control the pace of the game, dominate their opponents in shots, shots on target and pass accuracy. Their defense also causes turnovers which helps their offense and they capitalize on their opponents’ weaknesses and normally adjust their scheme depending on their opponents’ personnel. 

     However, starting slow will not necessarily work against opponents of a higher caliber. Offensive-oriented teams like France, Portugal, Spain, Germany, and Croatia attack early and often. If Italy wants to be successful against those teams, their defense will have to be at its best, and they cannot afford to make any mistakes, especially early in games when they are feeling out their opponents. 

     To recap, Italy is a young team with talent all over their roster, who has a great coaching staff and a great defense that limits opponents’ offensive chances and possession time. However, against stronger opponents’ they cannot make any mistakes. They have the potential to win, but will they get it done? I think they can get to the semifinals, maybe even the Finals. Forza Azzurri.

NBA Playoff Predictions 2021 - Round 1

By: Adamo Marinelli

May 22, 2021

With the 2021 NBA Play-in tournament officially over, that means the round 1 playoff matchups have been set. There are a lot of very talented teams in the playoffs this year which will make for some very entertaining and interesting series. In this article, I will analyze each matchup and provide a prediction on which team moves on to the next round. Let's get started.  

Wizards vs 76ers: This is a big mismatch. At 49-23, the 76ers have the 3rd best record in the league and even with all the talent on the Wizards’ roster like Russell Westbrook and Bradley Beal, it will be hard for the Wizards to best the 76ers in a 7 game series, despite their impressive offense and good transition game. Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons both had unbelievable seasons. Embiid leads the team in points per game with 28.5, in rebounds per game with 10.6 and Simmons plays a huge role on offense with his playmaking ability, leading the team with 6.9 assists per game. His long-distance shooting is also improving. The 76ers have the 6th best defense in the NBA, ranking 6th in fewest points allowed, 2nd in steals, 2nd in blocks, and they have the 4th lowest opponents’ field goal percentage. Even with the speed, talent and the creativity on the Wizards’ roster offensively, it will be hard to score. In addition, the 76ers have the 4th best offense in the NBA. They have the 9th best field goal percentage and the 10th best 3 point percentage in the NBA. They have the 10th most rebounds in the NBA and are very efficient on the offensive glass, but they are bottom 10 in the NBA for both assists and turnovers lost. Coupled with the fact that the Wizards are among the worst defensive teams in the league, it will be extremely difficult for the Wizards to win this series. Against a strong 76ers team with guys who can drive the rim, spread the ball around and shoot from long-range, their poor defense will be the difference in the series. Not to mention, Doc Rivers is one of the best coaches in the NBA and will take advantage of the Wizards’ lackluster defense. However, If the Wizards can take advantage of the 76ers’ turnovers, have a strong transition game, move the ball effectively to create open shots - as the 76ers have several talented but slower big men who aren’t the best at pick and rolls and screen action - and get production from both their starters and bench players, they may win a game or two. But I see the 76ers winning in 5 games.

Celtics vs Nets: If this isn’t a star-studded series I don’t know what is. The Brooklyn Nets have been one of the most hyped up teams in the league and have been championship favourites all season long. The Celtics have a lot of young talent and despite Jaylen Brown’s injury, Jayson Tatum and Kemba Walker are still two dominant forces leading a team with lots of talent and depth from guys like Marcus Smart, Evan Fournier, Tristan Thompson, Robert Williams, etc. The Celtics are a very talented team on offense, they can shoot very well - they are in the top half of the NBA in field goals and three pointers made, they move the ball well and they rebound very well, especially on the offensive glass. On defense, they allow the 6th fewest rebounds, 7th fewest offensive rebounds, 7th fewest defensive rebounds, 9th fewest assists, and 6 fewest field goals allowed. They are a top 10 defense in the league, aside from allowing the 17th most three pointers in the NBA, the only major weakness that can be exploited. They are also well coached with Brad Stevens at the helm. However, despite all this talent, if the Brooklyn Nets are healthy and KD, Harden, Irving and Griffin are all playing, they will be a difficult team to defend, no matter how much talent any team has on their roster. The Nets are the best offense in the league, finishing 2nd in points, 6th in field goals made, 7th in 3 pointers made, 1st in field goal percentage, 3rd in 3 point percentage, 7th in assists and they don’t turn the ball over often. However, statistically speaking, the Nets are middle of the pack in most of the major defensive categories, but they are the 3rd best defensive rebounding team, top 10 in blocks, and they are tough to shoot against, allowing the 6th best field goal percentage. They also have a very knowledgeable coach in Steve Nash, who knows how to win and how to adapt. I have the Nets winning in 6 games, but the Celtics won’t go down without a fight and will constantly adapt to better match up with the Nets. The Nets have to be ready to make adjustments too.

Heat vs Bucks: As a rematch of the 2020 Eastern Conference Finals, this series is guaranteed to not disappoint. Giannis Antetokounmpo and the Bucks have had a phenomenal season finishing 3rd in the East at 46-26, and Antetokounmpo averaged 28.1 points, 11 rebounds and 5.9 assists this year, which is nothing short of spectacular. The Heat have had a really good season with a 40-32 record and are looking to make another deep playoff run after making the NBA Finals in the 2020 bubble. For the past two seasons, the Bucks finished with the best record in the NBA but lost in the conference finals; this season, they have their sights set on the a championship. The Bucks upgraded their point guard position by adding Jrue Holiday, who’s incredible passing ability spreads out the floor and creates space for him and his teammates to shoot. They also acquired center P.J Tucker at the trade deadline for more versatility and switchability on defense and for his rebounding and passing on offense. This move was a steal for the value they got him for. The Bucks have changed their offense, spacing the floor more with frequent ball movement to create open shots and they still attack the glass aggressively. On defense, they fell down the board in a lot of the statistical categories and so they added more speed and versatility in the front court to be more effective defending screen actions, pick and rolls and sending help to shooters. They are also playing a lot more zone. However, the Bucks have to be prepared to adapt their defense in the playoffs for whatever offensive lineup they are facing. For the Heat, despite being the 6th seed, they still have many pieces left from their trip to the NBA Finals last season. They still have Jimmy Butler, who is a game changer on both sides of the ball with his shooting, play making and rim protection. He did not play in any of the regular season games vs the Bucks, that will be a massive boost for the Heat. Bam Adebayo, Tyler Herro and Goran Dragic are only getting better and Andre Iguodala is a huge help on defense. The Heat are still a top 10 defense, which is top 5 in fewest points allowed, good on the glass, great at causing turnovers (they are 5th best) and have the 8th best defensive rating. Their only real weakness is allowing a lot of threes, which the Bucks aren’t really known for. One big question is how the Heat use Adebayo defensively. He is a great switcher on ball screens and he is one of the best big men to defend guards, even one-on-one. However, when he switches onto guards, one of the Heat guards will be put into a tough position guarding a big man. Antetokounmpo can cause a lot of problems if he is defended by a guard - so HC Erik Spolestra will have to be wary of where Adebayo is defensively. So, there is a possibility of an upset, especially if the Bucks lack mobility from their big men and give up open looks to a strong Heat offense, but I’ll give the slight advantage to the Bucks. They aren’t as great defensively as last year, but the Heat aren’t as good offensively as last year. The Bucks are still very strong offensively after their trade deadline acquisitions and the Heat will have some mismatches on defense if Adebayo switches frequently. The Bucks will win in 7 games.

Hawks vs Knicks: What a season for the New York Knicks. This is the first time the Knicks have had a winning record since 2012-13, the first time they made the playoffs since 2012-13 and they did so with an impressive 41-31 record, good enough for 4th in the East which gives the Knicks a home court advantage vs the Hawks. This was all thanks to the talent they have on their roster with guys like Julius Randle, who has had a career year, R.J Barrett, Immanuel Quickley, Obi Toppin, and Nerlens Noel, among others. The Hawks have quietly had a solid year thanks to guys like Trae Young, Clint Capela, Bogdan Bogdanovic, Danilo Gallinari and Tony Snell, who is the first 50/50/100 player in NBA (51% FG, 57% 3pt FG and 100% FT). This will be an entertaining series as the both teams are snapping long playoff droughts (New York 2013 and Atlanta 2017) and are looking to advance past the first round for the first time since 2013 (Knicks) and 2016 (Hawks). The Knicks swept the season series vs the Hawks 3-0 and dominated all of those games. But don’t write off the Hawks just yet as they are more than capable of adapting both their offensive and defensive schemes to better match the Knicks in the playoffs. The Knicks have been the best defense in the league and it’s been that way all season long. They allowed the fewest points per game in the NBA with 104.7, the fewest number of opponents’ field goals, the lowest opponents’ field goal percentage and the lowest opponents’ three point percentage. At 107.8, they have the 3rd best defensive rating in the NBA and they can cause turnovers and prevent other teams from moving the ball around and getting assists. Against a pretty talented Hawks’ offense, who is top-10 in the league in scoring, averaging 114.3 points per 100 possessions/per game and that can rebound well, move the ball well, shoot well from the field and from 3, get to the free throw line frequently and who doesn’t turn the ball over, the Knicks will have to be at the top of their game defensively to limit the production from the stars of the Hawks, like Young, Capela, and Galinari. Expect head coach Tom Thibodeau to switch between man and zone coverage and even switch to small-ball to add more mobility on defense. The Hawks also have a lot of talent on defense, but they are in the middle of the pack in most of the statistical categories, including finishing in the bottom half in the league (18th) in defensive rating 112.1 and points allowed per game. While the Knicks certainly have the talent to win close, defensive games, if they can match their offensive output against the Hawks - they averaged 124.3 points per game vs the Hawks, compared to averaging 107 points per game in general - they will be a threat. The Knicks win in 6 games.

Grizzlies vs Jazz: The Utah Jazz are coming off one of their best seasons since the Karl Malone and John Stockton era after finishing 52-20, which is the best record not only in the Western Conference, but also the entire NBA. In addition, they are one of the most complete teams in the NBA, with a lot of talent in every position on their roster, and they finished the season with the 3rd best offense and the 3rd best defense in the NBA. They are one of the favourites to come out of the Western Conference and to win the NBA title. The Memphis Grizzlies, despite having considerably less playoff experience than the Golden State Warriors, played excellent, disciplined defense all night long constantly doubling Steph Curry and causing 21 turnovers in an exhilarating game where their young superstars like Ja Morant, Dillon Brooks, Kyle Anderson and Xavier Tillman all had monster games. Steph Curry still had a whopping 39 point night, but it would have likely been 60+ if it weren’t for the Grizzlies’ tremendous defensive play. However, despite their excellent performance last night, the Grizzlies are in the middle of the pack offensively and defensively with the 15th best offense and 16th best defense in the NBA. Couple the huge advantage the Jazz have on both the offensive and defensive side of the ball with the Jazz roster, that is arguably more talented than the Grizzlies’ roster (even though the Grizzlies have a lot of talent and a bright future) with guys like Donovan Mitchell, Rudy Gobert, Joe Ingles, Mike Conley and Bojan Bogdanovic, among others and the fact that the players on the Jazz have a lot more playoff experience than the young players on the Grizzlies, it makes me believe the Jazz will win this series. Undoubtedly, both of these teams are very talented and if the Grizzlies play like they did tonight, anything can happen, but with all the talent on the Jazz roster - on both sides of the ball - and with the tremendous playoff experience gap between both teams, it’s hard to see the Grizzlies win this series. I have the Jazz winning the series in 5 games.

Lakers vs Suns: After a thrilling 103-100 win over the Warriors in the play-in tournament, the Lakers have clinched the 7th seed in the West. The Lakers did not look very good without LeBron James and Anthony Davis but still played great defense and their bench players stepped up and played well offensively to win some games even without James and Davis. With James and Davis this team has only gotten better. The dynamic duo on average adds another 50 points per game to the Lakers and only boosts their defensive efficiency. The Lakers have the 2nd best defense in the league. They allow the 2nd fewest points per game, they are top 5 in fewest rebounds and defensive rebounds allowed. They allow the 5th fewest field goals, 3rd fewest three point field goals, are top 5 in blocks and turnovers and are top 10 in both opponents’ field goal percentage and opponents’ field goal percentage. They also have the best defensive rating in the league. However, the Suns are a very well-rounded and talented team on offense with great players like Devin Booker, Chris Paul, and Deandre Ayton, among others. They move the ball around a lot and very effectively, they have the 3rd most assists in the league and have the 4th fewest turnovers in the league. Great passing leads to lots of open looks. As a result, they shoot well from everywhere, they are 2nd best from field goal percentage and 7th best 3 point field goal percentage. They are also top 10 in points in the league and have the 5th best offensive rating. They cause turnovers on defense and have a strong transition game to generate offense. The Suns have the 7th best defense in the league. They allow the 7th fewest points per game, are top 10 in defensive rebounds and allow the 9th fewest rebounds and 6th fewest offensive rebounds. Not allowing opponents to get many 2nd chance points helps their transition game flourish. They are top 5 in fewest assists allowed and they can read plays and limit opponents’ chances on defense. They are middle of the pack in opponents’ field goal percentage and top 5 in opponents’ 3 point field goals. Despite all the talent on the Lakers’ roster, they are statistically the 12th best offense in the league. They can shoot well, rebound well and they move the ball well to generate open looks. Despite all the talent on the Lakers’ roster, especially with James and Davis, the Suns have had an excellent season at 51-21 and despite having less playoff experience than the Lakers, their offense matches up well with the Lakers’ defense and I’ll give the edge to the Suns’ defense over the Lakers’ offense, (especially if they contain Lebron and AD like the Warriors did in the first half of the play-in game). I have the Suns winning in 7, despite LA being favoured to win the series.

Blazers vs Nuggets: The Nuggets have had an extremely good season, finishing 47-25, good enough for third place in the West. Despite losing their star point guard Jamal Murray to an injury, the Nuggets still finished the season strong, thanks to an MVP caliber season from Nikola Jokic and guys like Michael Porter Jr. and Aaron Gordon have been a strong supporting cast for this team aiding on offense and defense. However, the Blazers are red-hot finishing the season with an incredible 10-2 record to finish the season 42-30. They are a team that no-one wants to play in the playoffs as a result of their excellent shooting and playmaking ability on offense and their great defensive play. Both of these teams have a lot of talent and the winner of this series can surprise a lot of teams later in the playoffs. Both of these teams are top 10 offensively in the NBA. Portland is one of the best offensive teams in the league who finished 5th in points for, the fewest turnovers and had the 2nd best offensive rating. The Nuggets are top 10 in almost all the major offensive statistics. Furthermore, both of these teams have strong transition games, shoot the ball well, move the ball around well and do not turn the ball over very much either. However, where the real statistical difference is on the defensive side of the ball - the Blazers finished in the bottom half of the league in the majority of the major defensive categories, meanwhile, the Nuggets, are a top 10 defensive team when it comes to the majority of the defensive categories. This is where the Nuggets have a considerable advantage. The Nuggets are a very good rebounding team, allowing the fewest rebounds, the 4th fewest offensive rebounds and they got the 2nd highest amount of defensive rebounds. They are also top 10 in turnovers caused and steals and they have a strong transition game to get easy looks on offense. They allow the 7th fewest field goals, but they allow a lot of three pointers, which is a big strength for the Blazers. The Blazers are middle of the pack in rebounding, both offensive and defensive, 23rd and 20th for opponents’ field goal and 3 point percentage respectively and have the 2nd worst defensive rating. Despite the season Damian Lillard and the Trail Blazers have had, despite their offensive prowess, and despite all the talent on their roster, I do believe a very talented Nuggets’ offense will use their skill and depth to take advantage of a lackluster Blazers’ defense despite the injury to Jamal Murray. The Nuggets win in 6 games, and are a threat to go to the Western conference finals. The Blazers will steal 2 games with incredible performances from Lillard, C.J McCollum and Norman Powell.

Mavericks vs Clippers: Both of these teams have a lot of talent on their roster and a lot to prove. Last season everyone was hyping up a Lakers vs Clippers Western Conference Finals matchup and many thought the Clippers would be the only team that would be able to upset the Lakers. Unfortunately, the Clippers blew a 3-1 series lead to the Denver Nuggets in the semis and people haven’t taken them seriously in the playoffs since. They have a lot to prove and will need to make a deep run to remove the criticism. The Mavericks lost a close, evenly matched 4-2 series to the Clippers last season, despite missing Kristaps Porzingis for 3 of those games and they will have the chance to exact their revenge. Both of these teams are top 10 in the league offensively and this matchup has the potential to be one of the highest scoring series in the first round and in the entire postseason. These two teams are both so talented offensively and are so well matched, this will be a great series. After having the 3rd seed in the West for the majority of the season, there is speculation that the Clippers purposely lost games to avoid the Lakers who were 6th seed at the time. But who knows, maybe they were just resting guys for the playoffs? The Mavericks have been electric recently winning 11 of 15 entering the playoffs which helped them guarantee a top 6 seed to avoid the play-in tournament. The Mavericks have only gotten better and more consistent as the season went on and Luca Doncic, Kristaps Porzingis, and Tim Hardaway Jr., all had fantastic seasons. However, the Clippers are one of the best offensive teams in the NBA this year, only the Nets and Blazers had a better offensive rating. The Clippers led the league in three point percentage, and free-throw percentage and they hit the most amount of catch-and-shoot threes from the corner. Nine Clippers players shot at above 40% from both the field and from the arc, eight of which even shot at over 45% from the field. It’s not only Kawhi Leonard, Paul George, Patrick Beverly and Demarcus Cousins, but the Clippers have a really deep team and their bench ranked fourth for most points per game, top for 3-point percentage and fifth in assists. If the Mavericks want to win, Luka Doncic needs to play the best basketball of his young career. He continues to dazzle with his passing and shooting abilities and his defensive skill. He averaged 27.7 points, 8.6 assists, 8 rebounds this season, which is slightly lower than last season, however, he shot at a higher clip from the floor (47.9%) and from three (35%). He has the ability to win games on his own, however, if the Mavericks can play good defense, double team shooters, get good production from their bench as well as their starters and play small to have more mobility on defense to prevent threes, the Mavs can win this series. In addition, both teams have top 10 defenses both in terms of points allowed, opponents’ field goals allowed and they both can rebound well with their size and have quick guards to run the floor in transition for easy looks. However, the Clippers’ defense is the 4th best in the league, the Mavs have the 9th best defense. Both teams are evenly matched offensively, are well coached and have a lot of talent, however, the Clippers’ superior defense will get stops when it needs to and allow their offense to outpace the Mavs’ offense. This series will be close, I got Clippers in 7.

       Regardless of what happens, this is going to be an exciting first round with tons of interesting matchups. I can’t wait to watch. 

     An article with conference semifinals, conference finals and NBA finals predictions will be up after the previous round ends and before the new rounds commence. Stay tuned.

NBA 2021 Play-in Tournament Analysis and Predictions

Adamo Marinelli

May 18, 2021

     With the NBA regular season coming to a close, that means it’s time for playoffs. This year, with the shortened season, comes an extended playoff bracket, giving more teams a shot to fight for the Larry O’Brien trophy. There are a lot of interesting games in this year’s play-in tournament, which should make for an exciting few days of basketball. I will briefly analyze each article and make predictions on which teams will get the 7th and 8th seeds in each conference.

Eastern conference

7. Celtics vs 8. Wizards

The Wizards, who have arguably been the best team in the NBA recently thanks to several excellent performances from Russell Westbrook - who has the most triple-doubles in NBA history - and Bradley Beal will upset the Celtics who have not been themselves this season. Jaylen Brown’s injury also doesn’t help. Without him, Beal and Westbrook will be too much to handle. Wizards take the 7th seed.

9. Pacers vs 10. Hornets

The Pacers have been sneaky good this year and are a team that flies under a lot of people’s radar. They can make some noise with guys like Caris Levert, Malcolm Brogdon, and Domantas Sabonis. The Hornets have lost 7 of their last 9 entering their play-in game and have not looked as good as their early season form. I believe the Pacers win a close game. 

7. Celtics vs 9. Pacers

The Celtics get another shot to get into the playoffs against a hungry Pacers team. The Celtics have a lot of talent on their roster, but without Jaylen Brown, they are not complete. With their depth, they will make the game against the Pacers close, but the Pacers will win a close game in overtime to secure the 8th seed after huge performances from Levert and Sabonis.

Western conference

7. Lakers vs 8. Warriors

The Warriors have been on a tear recently and Steph Curry has been responsible for a lot of it. Fresh off his 2nd career NBA scoring title, Steph Curry has been lights out from everywhere on the floor which will propel them to victory over the Lakers who have been iffy and inconsistent at best since the return of Lebron James and Anthony Davis. The Warriors will take the 7th seed.

9. Grizzlies vs. 10. Spurs

This matchup is going to be interesting. For the Grizzlies, with Jaren Jackson out with an injury, guys like Kyle Anderson have stepped up their production to help Ja Morant and Jonas Valencunas lead the way. The Spurs are looking to get back into the playoffs after their 22-year streak was ended in 2020. They have a lot of young talent on their roster including Dejounte Murray, Derrick White, Lonnie Walker to pair with veteran guard Demar Derozan. With an undersized frontcourt, I doubt they’ll get very far in the playoffs, but they will beat the Grizzlies in a close, physical, defensive, low-scoring game.

7. Lakers vs. 10. Spurs: The Spurs are a well-coached team with Gregg Popovich, however, with all the youth they have on their roster, and with such an undersized front-court after the departure of LaMarcus Aldrige, defending Lebron James and Anthony Davis will prove to be too much, even if they are not 100% healthy. The Spurs have a good future, but there is too much talent on the Lakers’ roster - filled with guys who can shoot, pass and defend well. The Lakers win by 20, they take the 8th seed. 

     So, after the play-in tournament, here is what I see the 16 team bracket looking like. This is going to be an interesting playoffs, for sure.

Playoffs: 

Eastern conference

1. 76ers vs. 8. Pacers

2. Nets vs. 7. Wizards

3. Bucks vs 6. Heat

4. Knicks vs 5. Hawks

Western conference

1. Jazz vs. 8. Lakers

2. Suns vs. 7. Warriors

3. Nuggets vs 6. Trail Blazers

4. Clippers vs 5. Mavericks

     An article predicting the round 1 matchups seen above will be out shortly. Stay tuned.

NHL 2021 Playoff Predictions - Round 1

By: Adamo Marinelli

May 16, 2021 

     With the NHL playoffs fast approaching, I will take a brief look at each series in each round and eventually predict who will be crowned the Stanley Cup Champion. Let’s begin with round 1.

     With the way the divisions and playoff bracket are laid out, there will be one Canadian team that is guaranteed to be playing in the conference final and will have a good shot at the Stanley Cup. Let's start with the North division.

     Montreal Canadiens vs Toronto Maple Leafs: The Maple Leafs are by far the better team on paper after winning their division for the first time in 21 years. Also, the Habs kind of sleep-walked to the playoffs, finishing the season 3-5-3, but the magic about the playoffs is that anything can happen. Auston Matthews has had an incredible season and with 41 goals is the favourite to win the Rocket Richard trophy. The Leafs have no problems scoring effectively on offense, they are 6th in the NHL with 186 goals. All four of their lines can contribute, but their first line is the deadliest with Matthews, Marner, and Thorton. Where the Leafs have struggled with in years past is defense in the playoffs. If Freddie Andersen makes a full recovery before the playoffs, the Leafs will get consistent goaltending. They’ll just need to play well in front of Andersen by limiting shots against, chances against, opponents’ offensive zone time, and by controlling possession. For the Habs, Carey Price who’s excellent performance in net often carries the Canadiens to relevance, has been injured this season and while still playing well, has not had his best season registering a 2.64 GAA and .901 SV%. They are not the most talented team but have a lot of talent offensively and defensively. If they can score a few goals and play solid defense in front of Price, they can be a tough-out. Another strategy for the Habs is special teams. The Leafs struggle a lot on the penalty kill, they are the 8th worst in the league. The Habs have a power play that is ranked in the middle of the league and can do some damage. The Leafs also have a power-play that is ranked middle of the league but they give up a lot of short-handed goals, which the Habs can take advantage of. The Habs’ special teams have improved since acquiring Dominic Ducharme as the head coach. I say the Habs keep it close, but the Leafs win in 6 games. 

     Winnipeg Jets vs Edmonton Oilers: This is going to be an entertaining series. The Oilers have had an incredible season, and so has their best player Connor McDavid who has 104 points in 56 games played, an incredible feat that is likely to earn him the Art Ross and Hart Trophy. Sure, when most people look at the Oilers, they picture a two-man roster consisting of McDavid and Leon Draisatl, however, the Oilers have depth all over their roster which has helped them finish atop the North Division. Both the Oilers and Jets have excellent goaltenders, Mike Smith and Connor Hellebuyck have both had excellent seasons. Great goaltending by both of these guys will help out both teams’ defense and may alter the series in favor of one team. The Oilers are known for their ability to score with any of their lines, especially their first line. If the Jets are unable to contain McDavid, Draisaitl, Jesse Puljujarvi, and Kailer Yamamoto among others, the Jets will get themselves into some deficits, even if Hellebuyck stands on his head. Another question is if the Jets will be able to maximize the production of their top guys. Patrick Laine was traded after an okay season, and Pierre Luc Dubois has been underwhelming with only 20 points in 40 games. Blake Wheeler, Kyle Connor, and Mark Scheifele also need to have a good series. Both teams have very efficient power-plays, the Oilers have a 28.1% efficiency, the best in the league, and the Jets have a pretty good 23.1% efficiency. Both teams’ penalty kill units - who haven’t been elite, but have been solid this year - will need to play well to keep their team alive in the series. This will not be a blowout by any means. Good goaltending and solid defense keep the Jets in the series, but the Oilers win in 6. 

Islanders vs Penguins: The last time these two teams met in the playoffs, the Islanders swept the Penguins in the first round of the 2019 playoffs. The Islanders are a great team and started the season really well, but have cooled down a bit since. The Islanders still have a great team on both sides of the puck, are well-coached, and play great defensive hockey. They control the puck well, win the puck battles, and are good at limiting shots and opponents’ offensive zone time. On offense, they have a lot of talent but after losing captain Anders Lee to an injury, they acquired Kyle Palmieri and Travis Zajac in a trade with the New Jersey Devils to increase offensive depth. Both Zajac and Palmieri weren’t as productive as New York would have liked and the Islanders scored only 35 goals in the final 16 games, going 6-7-3. The Islanders can score but are 20th in goals scored with 152. They win games with their defense, only allowing 125, 2nd fewest in the league. However, the Islanders have struggled this season against the Penguins, recording a 2-4-2 record against the Penguins. The Penguins are a deep, fast, and talented team. It’s not like if you shut down one guy, you’ll win the series. They have a lot of guys that can score and make plays and they do not make a lot of mistakes on offense. In fact, they have 193 goals, which is good for 2nd in the NHL. The Penguins play pretty decent defense as well but two concerns would be their inconsistent goaltending and their bottom-5 penalty kill which could be tested if the Islanders’ power-play heats up. Also, the Penguins have a top 5 powerplay in the league, but thanks to their defense and good goaltending, the Islanders have a top 5 penalty kill. So the Penguins can score, the Islanders can defend, this series will come down to special teams and goaltending. I believe the Islanders win in 7.

Bruins vs Capitals: Even though the Capitals have the home-ice advantage, the Bruins are regarded by many as the favourites in this series. The Bruins are entering the playoffs strong with a healthy roster and added depth on offense and defense after acquiring Taylor Hall, Curtis Lazar, and Mike Reilly at the deadline. After the trade deadline, the Bruins’ 5-5 scoring has drastically improved. It is currently ranked second in the league after being one of the worst in the league before the start of the season. This helped the Bruins finish the season 12-4-1 and should help them excel in the playoffs. The Capitals are a good team and do have explosive offensive talent especially with Alex Ovechkin but are without several players including Evgeni Kuznetzov F (Doubtful), Ilya Samsonov G (Questionable), T.J. Oshie F (Questionable), John Carlson D (Probable), Michal Kempny D (Questionable). Boston is a very fast, skilled, and deep team so if the Capitals’ injury problems persist, it could be a steep hill to climb. This will be a physical series, with many goals by both teams. Tukka Rask remains to be one of the best goalies in the NHL. He has a lot of playoff experience - 93 games - and has been excellent in those games registering a 2.2 GAA and a .926 SV%. The Capitals’ back-ups will need to match his play if they want to remain competitive in this series. The Bruins made the Cup Final a few years ago thanks to secondary scoring, they will need that again if they want to make another deep playoff run. The question is will Hall and their other trade deadline acquisitions provide that secondary scoring? So far, Hall’s production has been good and he’s helped improve the play of his lineman Krejci. But will it continue? I believe the Capitals upset the Bruins in an exciting 7 game series.

Predators vs Hurricanes: The Hurricanes were a good team during their conference finals run in 2019. They’ve only gotten better since. They are built from the goalie out, and the trio of Alex Nedeljkovic, Petr Mrazek, and even James Reimer has provided stellar goaltending all season long. Their young core has only gotten better with speedy, savvy, and talented forwards in Sebastian Aho, Jordan Staal, and Teuvo Teravainen. In addition, drafting Andrei Svechnikov in 2018, trading Victor Rask for Nino Niederreiter, and trading for Vincent Trocheck gives them a big three at the center position. They are 11th in the league with 175 goals scored and can score both at even strength and on the powerplay. On defense, after acquiring Dougie Hamilton and Brady Skjei in recent seasons, the Hurricanes have a great defensive core that not only limits’ opponents’ scoring chances but can also generate offense in the transition attack by creating turnovers. The Hurricanes are a very good team, well-coached, and have a pretty good shot to win the Cup. The Predators have a good team, but it will be a challenge to match up with all of their talent and depth at the forward position, even with the talented group of defensemen the Predators have. Their defense is what got them to the Stanley Cup Finals in 2017 and despite only having 3 members left of that impressive defensive core: Roman Josi, Ryan Ellis, and Mattias Ekholm, they have surrounded those veterans with some promising young talent that have played very well this season. This blue line can block shots, cause turnovers, win puck battles, and is dangerous in the transition game. They are also physical with guys like Mark Borowiecki and Erik Gudbranson. However, a big weakness for the Predators is their penalty kill. The Hurricanes have one of the best power plays in the league and Rod Brind'amour being an excellent coach will find many ways to outsmart this defense. Their defense and Pekka Rinne’s great play will keep the series close, but the Hurricanes will close it out in 6 games.

Lightning vs Panthers: The battle of Florida. This will be quite an interesting series between two talented teams with lots of promise and who are both looking to go on a deep playoff run. This will also be the first-ever playoff series between these two squads which will make it even more interesting. The Lightning have been a dangerous team offensively, even without Nikita Kucherov and Steven Stamkos both out with injury. They are both projected to return to the lineup before game one. Now, it is not certain if they will both be at 100% but regardless, they add a ton of talent to this already talented roster and I’m sure the Lightning would rather have them in the lineup than out. Sure, the Lightning are defending champions, who have a lot of playoff experience, great scoring ability, good defense, and great goaltending with Andrei Vasilevsky and Anders Nilsson, the Panthers are by no means a team to scoff at. They have a home-ice advantage in this series after finishing with an incredible 37-14-5 record, 4 points above the Lightning in the Central division. The Panthers do not have nearly as much playoff experience in the playoffs, but still, have the talent and depth to make a big run. The Panthers are well-coached under Joel Quenneville, who’s won multiple Stanley Cups. They are a great defensive team, allowing only 153 goals against, the 9th fewest in the NBA, and have a lot of talent on offense, with guys like Alexander Barkov, Sam Bennett, Anthony Duclair, Jonathan Huberdeau, and Patrick Hornqvist among others. They’ve also scored 189 goals, the 5th most in the league. They are a dual-threat team with talent on both sides of the puck and have a solid goalie in Sergei Bobrovsky who has lots of playoff experience. The only question for the Lightning is whether Stamkos and Kucherov will be 100% effective, for the Panthers it is who will back up Bobrovsky between the pipes and who will replace the injured Ekblad on defense. This will be a close series. I have the Panthers upsetting the Lightning in 7.

Blues vs Avalanche: The Colorado Avalanche are fresh off their franchise’s 3rd President’s Trophy win after finishing the season with 82 points, an outstanding feat. However, they could be tested early by a Blues’ team that still has a lot of pieces left from their Stanley Cup-winning team a few seasons ago. The Avalanche are heavy favourites in this series, finishing 19 points above the Blues in the West Division, but the Blues are no joke considering their amount of playoff experience. They also have 17 players on their roster that have won the Stanley Cup. Both teams have a lot of talent, especially on offense and they each have at least one game-breaker. Nathan McKinnon is having another great year, scoring over 20 goals for the 4th straight season. He has the potential to change any series for the Avalanche. He has a lot of playoff experience too, with 20 goals and 34 assists in 40 postseason games. The Blues have a Conn-Smythe trophy winner as their game-breaker, in Ryan O’Reilly. He was the most valuable player in the 2019 playoffs helping the Blues to a Stanley Cup and leads the team in goals scored this season with 24. He can hurt any team’s defense. Both teams have really good defensive cores as well, which will be very important considering the offensive ability of both teams. The Avalanche are averaging 3.33 goals per game in the playoffs since 2018, only the Oilers have more with 3.75 goals per game. The Blues have had one of the best playoff power plays in recent years, scoring on 23.2% of their power plays. David Perron has 21 points on the powerplay, with 6 goals, 15 assists. Jaden Schwartz is another great player on the Blues with 54 playoff points, an all-time record on the Blues. X-factors would be Nazem Kadri on the Avalanche, who plays better when the stakes are higher, and Torey Krug who is an excellent defenseman who isn’t afraid to get involved offensively with 11 goals, 41 assists in 75 playoff games. If the Avalanche continue to get production not only from their starters but also their depth guys, get excellent goaltending from Grubauer and play good defense they will win. I think the Blues will give the Avalanche a scare, with their excellent scoring ability and powerplay and Binnington will play well, but the Avalanche will win in 7. 

Wild vs Golden Knights: This will be another interesting playoff series, and it will be closer than many people think despite the Golden Knights being highly favored. After all, Vegas did have a losing record to the Wild last season, going 3-4-1 against them. In a head-to-head matchup with the Avalanche last week, the Golden Knights did have a chance to win the President’s Trophy but due to injuries were only able to play 15 skaters and they lost a close 2-1 game. All the pressure is on the Golden Knights, the Wild have nothing to lose as a first-round underdog, they are just hoping to go on a run. Both teams have underwhelming powerplay units, but both teams have a top-10 penalty kill unit. The Wild are 81%, 9th best in the league, the Golden Knights have 87% the best in the league. So, the powerplay for both teams will likely not play a big role. The Wild have by far exceeded their pre-season expectations. Their goaltending has been above average with Cam Talbot and Kappo Kahkonen, their team defense is good, they limit high-quality shots and chances, cause turnovers, disrupt opponents’ passes in the neutral zone and they are very good at controlling possession time. However, Vegas was a point away from winning the President’s Trophy for a reason. They are an elite group on offense and defense, with talent all over their roster including two excellent goalies in Marc Andre Fleury and Robin Lehner, both veterans who have a lot of playoff experience. The Golden Knights in their brief history have had a lot of playoff experience and success making a Stanley Cup finals in 2018 and a Western Conference finals in 2020. They are top 10 in goals scored and are top 10 in fewest goals allowed. Despite the losing record against the Wild and the .500 record against the Avs, the Golden Knights have a ton of talent all over their roster, are well-coached and they play a fast-paced game, and can match up with almost any opponent. They may not make the Western Conference Finals, but they will win this series in 6 games.

     This will be an interesting and very exciting first round, and I’m excited to watch. 

     As soon as the first round of the playoffs is over, I will publish an article making my predictions for the round 2 matchups. 

     Regardless of what happens in the first round, my Stanley Cup Champion pick is the Colorado Avalanche. I believe they beat the Hurricanes in 7 games. So unless they are shockingly upset in round 1, I will have them winning every series. 

Ottawa Senators' future outlook & expectations

By: Adamo Marinelli

May 9, 2021

     Despite being mathematically eliminated from the playoffs, the Ottawa Senators are by no means a pushover. With their dominant 4-2 win against the Winnipeg Jets on May 8, the Senators are now 8-1-1 in their last 10 games and are in sole possession of 5th place in the North Division.

      If the Senators’ did not start the season 2-12-1, they would for sure be in contention for a playoff spot in the North. They are a good team and will definitely be in the playoffs next year.

      The Senators have a lot of talent and youth on their roster and a lot of young players like Tim Stutzle, Alex Formenton, Drake Batherson, Connor Brown, Erik Branstrom, Jacob Bernard-Docker, and Shane Pinto among others.

     Sure, goaltender Matt Murray hasn’t had a great year, but the Sens have had several goalies who have had a good year and are making a name for themselves. For example, Marcus Hogberg, Joey Daccord, Filip Gustavsson, Anton Forsberg, etc.

     The current Senators roster looks like this: 

Forwards

Tkachuk - Norris - Batherson

Formenton - White - Paul

Stutzle - Pinto - C. Brown

Dzingel - Tierney - Dadonov

                Amadio - Haley

Defense

Mete - Zaitsev

Brannstrom - Zub

Allsing - Bernard-Docker

*Chabot is injured

Goalies

Forsberg

Gustafvsson

*Murray and Daccord are injured

    At the beginning of the season, it looked like this: 

Forwards

Tkachuk - White - Batherson

Tierney - Norris - Paul

Stuztle - Galchenyuk - Dadonov

Watson - Stephan - Anisimov 

Defense

Chabot - J. Brown

Gudbranson - Coburn

Reilly - Zaitsev

Wolanin 

Goalies

Murray

Hogberg

     The Senators traded Erik Gudbranson, Mike Reilly and Braydon Coburn for multiple draft picks in 2022 and 2023. In addition, they added Victor Mete after acquiring him off waivers from the Canadiens. The Senators also waived Cedric Paquette and traded Alex Galchenyuk. 

     Many rookies like Drake Batherson, Josh Norris, Shane Pinto, and Tim Stutzle had great campaigns and proved themselves in the NHL, establishing their spot in the lineup. In addition, young guys like Colin White, Chris Tierney, and Nick Paul had productive seasons. This team has the offensive firepower to be competitive in the near future. Connor Brown started the season for Bellville after not cracking the main roster but has had an incredible season offensively, recording 19 goals and 31 points. He even scored 8 goals in 8 games, a franchise record.

     Moving on from those defensemen at the trade deadline gave opportunities to rookies like Erik Brannstrom and Artyom Zub who have all played increasingly well as the season has gone on. Jacob Bernard-Docker has only played in 3 games but has looked good in both. Nikita Zaitsev has been reliable all season long and Victor Mete has been good since joining the Senators. 

     In addition, the Senators have a large list of prospects both on offense and on defense, none of which have played in the NHL yet but do look good enough to go to play in the NHL. Most of these guys are in the NCAA or are playing in the AHL with Bellville.

Forwards:

• Ridley Grieg

• Egor Sokolov

• Angus Crookshank

• Vitaly Abramov

• Jack Kopacka

Defensemen: 

• Jake Sanderson

• Lassi Thompson

• Jonathan Aspirot

• Tyler Kleven

• Mikael Wikstrand

Goalies:

• Mads Sogaard

• Kevin Mandolese

• Levi Merilainen

     Guys like Sanderson and Thompson, even Grieg, Sokolov, and Crookshank can be on the roster next season. All of these guys will get at least a chance on the team, in the next few seasons. 

     Having a plethora of talent in the minors and on your taxi squad gives the team plenty of opportunities to put together the best lines with the most chemistry and gives an already young team even more young talent to work with - this team can contend for a decade or even more.  

     In addition, the Senators have a lot of talent on their taxi squad. Guys like Shane Pinto, Jacob Bernard-Docker, Erik Brannstrom, Alex Formenton, Logan Brown, and Artyom Zub among others have all played for the Senators this season, but have found themselves on the taxi squad at some point this season.

     Jonathan Aspirot, Filip Chlapik, and Vitaly Abramov are 3 promising prospects on the taxi squad currently. Olle Alsing was on the taxi squad before getting called up to help fill the hole left by Chabot’s injury. Those four prospects aren't the only talented prospects on the taxi squad, however.

     With Matt Murray and Joey Daccord injured, the Senators currently have Anton Forsberg, Filip Gustavsson, and Marcus Hogberg as the 3 goalies on the active roster. Expect the Senators to trade 1-2 of their goalies to acquire more draft capital and/or depth on the right side of the defense and a playmaker and shot creator at the center position.

     As of May 9, the Senators sit 22nd in the league and are projected to get the 9th pick in the 2021 NHL draft. They have 40% odds of a top 4 pick, a 9.3% chance to get a top 2 pick and they have a 4.5% chance to get the #1 overall pick.

     The Senators are a pretty talented team with lots of youth, but two of their biggest needs are a right-sided defenseman and a centerman who can create plays and shots with his speed and hockey IQ. 

     They would have needed a goalie, but with the emergence of Filip Gustavsson and Anton Forsberg, in addition to Marcus Hogberg, Matt Murray, and Joey Daccord in addition to their prospects in Bellville, the Sens do not need a goalie. 

     Lucky for the Senators, two of the best, most NHL-ready forwards can fall to the Senators when they draft. Both Matthew Beniers and William Eklund both have the potential to be franchise centermen.

     Matthew Bernier can cause turnovers defensively and use his speed to generate transition offense which creates chances in the attacking zone and helps his team control possession time. He’s responsible with the puck, plays with speed, and is a prime playmaker for his teammates given his ability to quickly read the ice, anticipate where his teammates will be, and his ability to make the correct decisions. He’d be good on a line with Stutzle and Tkachuk. 

     William Eklund is great in the faceoff dot and he’s a high-pace, deceptive dual-threat scorer with advanced puck-protection mechanics and strong habits in all three zones. He has a high hockey IQ, great hands, and can make almost any pass. A lack of ankle flexion limits his straight-line explosiveness but that can be improved upon. He is a superb talent.

     In terms of right-shot defenseman, both Brandt Clarke and Corson Cuelemans are both great fits for the Senators' already youth-filled defensive core. 

     Brandt Clarke is a two-way defenseman with great speed and agility and good acceleration and endurance. He is a well-disciplined defenseman who can block shots, can read the offense, and predict passing and shooting lanes. He can throw his body around and has the strength to hit very hard. He’s very aggressive and wins puck battles in open ice. He has good hands and can make accurate passes but his offensive awareness can improve which will help his playmaking ability. He’d fit well with Sanderson, Chabot, or Mete.

     Corson Cuelemans is also a physical defenseman who can create turnovers, can win puck battles, set up his teammates with crisp accurate passes. However, like Cole Makar, Cuelemans plays a fast-offensive oriented style of hockey that emphasizes good puck handling, out-thinking, and out-speeding his opponents. He also has a decent shot and will be good on the power-play with his passing skills. Although, he plays in the AJHL which isn’t the best league in terms of developing their players, and though his vision is good, his decision-making is not the best which leads to turnovers. He can also be too aggressive on offense which leads to turnovers.

     If the Senators land one or even more of these prospects with their one first-round pick and two second-round picks, they’d be a better team. They also have $8.7 million still left in cap space and roster space on their taxi squad to sign and develop all rookies from this class.

Finally, I will predict the Ottawa Senators’ 2021-22 and 2022-23 starting lineups. 

Here is my projected 2021-22 starting lineup: 

Forwards: 

Tkachuk - Norris - Batherson

Stutzle - White - Paul

Formenton - Pinto - Brown

Dzingle - Tierney - Dadonov 

Grieg - Bernier - Haley

Defense: 

Chabot - Mete

Sanderson - Brannstrom 

Bernard-Docker - Clarke

Zub - Alsing

Goalies: 

Murray 

Gustavsson

Daccord

Forsberg

Here is my projected 2022-23 starting lineup: 

Tkachuk - Norris - Batherson

Stutzle - White - Paul

Formenton - Pinto - Brown

Grieg - Bernier - Sokolov 

Crookshank - Tierney - Dadonov

Defense: 

Chabot - Sanderson

Bernard-Docker - Brannstrom 

Thompson - Clarke

Aspirot - Kleven

Goalies: 

Murray

Gustavsson

Daccord

Forsberg

     To conclude, the Senators will miss the playoffs this season, but in the next few years they will not only be contending for playoff spots but they also have the potential to be contending for Stanley Cups. 

     With their talented roster, on both offense and defense, they are a complete team that can compete with anyone in the league. They are a hard-out for a lot of teams in the North Division this year, so in the next few years, they will be even better. 

     For a team built from the goaltender out, adding a young defensive and forward core to a veteran goalie in Matt Murray is the recipe for success both in the short term (next 2-3 years) and in the long term (for the next 10 years).

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