Why the Toronto Maple Leafs will sign John Tavares:

By: Adamo Marinelli

June 26th, 2018

    John Tavares, 27 years of age, is coming off a season with 37 goals, 47 assists and 84 points in
82 games. This is his eighth consecutive season posting a points per game of 0.85 or higher and
went above one point per game for the third time in his career. Very few experts have Tavares’ annual
average value at under $10 million. Makes sense for an arguably top 10 centre in the NHL. Imagine
the effect of Matthews and Tavares together. That smells like a few Stanley Cups in the near future,
at least one.

    The 2018-19 NHL salary cap is $79.5 million, the league announced June 21st. Typically teams
overpay in free agency just to assure they are making the highest bid for the player to guarantee to
sign him. Tavares likely won’t be any different, however, whatever is paid to Tavares you’re not only
trusting him to be great but to also elevate players around him. And who else better to elevate than
all the youngsters in Toronto. This past season, goaltending in Brooklyn was terrible, but the team
knew how to score.

    This is a lot of money to spend on a ‘maybe’ but Tavares is no ‘maybe’. He’s an all-star.

    Here’s one way the Leafs can sign Tavares, an advantage they have over every other team in
the hunt:

• The 2018-19 cap space is $79.5 million, higher than last year’s $75 million
• James Van Riemsdyk, Tyler Bozak or Leo Komarov have all not been re-signed. They will be traded if Tavares signs with the Leafs.
• Tavares’ cap hit is $12.5 million for the next seven seasons. That’s Connor McDavid’s cap hit. That’s his maxed out contract.
• William Nylander was re-signed to David Pastrnak’s contract, which is six years with a $6.67 million cap hit.
• Andreas Johnsson was re-signed to $2 million for the next four seasons.
• Connor Carrick was re-signed to $925,000 for one year.
• Matt Martin is the fourth-line centre, which is inaccurate.
• Trevor Moore makes the team as a spare forward. Don’t get too caught up in the name, he’s a rookie with roughly a rookie cap hit if anything.

Obviously, Martin won’t be their fourth-line centre. He might not even be a Leaf next season at all.
Ignoring the name, the Leafs could, in theory, pay their fourth-line centre $2.5 million and still have
about $3.5 million in cap space if the salary cap is $79.5 million.

If Tavares is signed to the aforementioned deal, which is expensive and probably higher than it will
end up being, the Leafs will have roughly $25 million to re-sign RFAs Matthews, Mitch Marner, and
Kasperi Kapanen, just to name a few, for the 2019-20 season (as those players become RFA’s after
the 2018-19 season) and onward. And Nylander, Matthews and Kapanen, who all have to be
resigned in the next few years won’t mind being paid not the maximum amount to allow their organization to
build up other assets in hopes of winning a championship. No player is that selfish, especially when
they have their whole career ahead of them. Also, these players are RFA’s which include certain
mobility restrictions as their rights are still owned by the team even if they are not currently under
contract which they will all be after the 2018-19 season.

    The Leafs’ strength is in their youth and that strength is primarily on the wing. Will they have to
move some of their young wingers at some point to make room if Tavares is signed? Likely, Tavares’
Leafs contract and Matthews’ new contract add up to about $20 million. Add in Nazem Kadri and
whoever the Leafs’ fourth centre is, the Leafs would be spending roughly $26 million on four centres.
For reference, the Pittsburgh Penguins pay just over $23 million against the cap for the foursome of
Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, Derick Brassard, and Riley Sheahan. That’s only $3 million higher
than the Penguins who are top three spenders in centres. And it’s not uncommon for teams to go
over their salary cap also.

    Then the issue is how you spend money on anything else. Andersen is locked up until 2021 earning
only $5 million a year, which is in the bottom half of the starting goalies in the NHL, so goaltending is
fine. But, the talented young winger core will need raises. How about addressing the defence? How’s
everything going to happen with acquiring Tavares?

    Centres like Tavares can make decent wingers good and good wingers great. Ideally, the star power
of Matthews, especially as he gets older, will do the same. This should allow the Leafs to save money
with several low-cost or entry-level contract wingers. Besides, the wing should be the easiest position
to draft. Many players drafted as centres end up being great wingers anyway. Saving money on the
wings could allow the Leafs to sign Tavares and maybe even address the blue line, as well.

    At the end of the day, regardless of who will be captain if the Leaf’s acquire Tavares and regardless
if GM’s think it’s more important to have a whole team of players or to just have a few key assets, the
thing that makes a team the happiest is winning. And Tavares has the best chance to win with the Leafs.

    Here’s the breakdown of all his possible destinations: The Islanders have huge goaltending struggles
and you can’t win if your goaltending is struggling. Also, the Isles will play in Brooklyn until 2019 then
with the likely approval of the Isles building a new arena in Belmont Park, they’ll need a layover home
until 2021. The arena struggles are a pain and a push factor for Tavares. Although, Tavares does bleed
orange and blue and did promise Stanley Cup glory for the Isles. The Tampa Bay Lightning also
signed forward J.T. Miller to a huge 5 year, $26.25 million and are likely out of the mix for Tavares.
Tavares shot down Montreal; in an interview with GM Marc Bergevin for a potential contract and
Montreal is another high-scrutiny market that just doesn't suit Tavares and his personality. In addition,
if he signs for market value, the Canadiens could have more than $29 million of cap space committed
to three players for at least the next seven years -- and two of them, as mentioned, are over 30. The
Red Wings are a no as it would be a downgrade for Tavares, Stanley Cup wise, which is the goal of
every player, John Tavares included. The Redwings have some young talent in place like Dylan Larkin,
Anthony Mantha but need some time before they develop into Cup contenders. The Sharks have a
talented roster no doubt but are financially incapable of signing Tavares. If Tavares gets $11-12 million
against the cap, then San Jose would have to account for that plus what is owed to defensemen
Brent Burns ($8 million) and Marc-Edouard Vlasic ($7 million). Plus, Joe Pavelski and Logan Couture,
who make $6 million each, will need new contracts in 2019. From a market and lineup perspective,
Tavares is an ideal fit in San Jose. Monetarily? Not so much. The Rangers have enough cap space to
sign two John Tavares next summer. With Mika Zibanejad coming into his own and blue-chip prospect
Filip Chytil on the way, New York would be stacked at center, which is currently a position of need.
But it’s hard to understand why a player who’s so loyal to one New York team, just goes to another.
Don’t be like KD, John Tavares. And finally, in Vancouver, the Canucks have space and the desire to
max out Tavares. Henrik Sedin is 37 years old. Not coincidentally, so is Daniel Sedin. They're both
unrestricted free agents after this season, which should mean the end of an era. Meanwhile, a slew
of talented young players -- Bo Horvat and Brock Boeser among them -- are starting to make an
impact. However, the Canucks cannot say that if Tavares does sign there that they will be confident
that they're on their way to a Stanley Cup… which is the result when a franchise wastes a couple of
seasons by stubbornly refusing to acknowledge that it's time to rebuild.

    Thus, the most likely team is Tavares will sign with is Toronto. Because: “Toronto has a ‘Scrooge
McDuck Money Bin’ of finances from which to pay Tavares [a huge max deal], a cap hit of approx
$54.8 million, so no worries there -- especially since it could sign Tavares long-term for a lot of money,
satisfying him and then fit the Connor McDavid-level payday due to Auston Matthews in 2019 onward
around that contract. Toronto really wants to win a championship and they’ll do anything to do that even
if it means letting go of JVR, Komarov, and Bozak to sign Tavares. There has also been speculation that
Tavares would take a high-yield, short-term contract to win in Toronto like he's Marian Hossa circa 2009”
(NHL - ESPN). That is a scenario in which Toronto can do perfectly and would prefer.   

    At the end of the day, the team’s general managers know more about the lineup and financial
team’s needs than me, but this is the most accurate reflection of where Tavares will go.