2022 Stanley Cup Finals Preview -- Tampa Bay Lightning vs Colorado Avalanche

Adamo Marinelli

June 15, 2022

At last, the Stanley Cup Finals are here. The Tampa Bay Lightning are in the Stanley Cup Finals for the third season in a row after their 11th consecutive playoff series win dating back to 2020. They won four consecutive games in the Eastern Conference Finals against a super talented Rangers team after falling down 2-0 in the series. 

Meanwhile, the Colorado Avalanche dominated the Edmonton Oilers in the Western Conference Finals, winning the series handily in a four-game sweep thanks to excellent performances from Nathan MacKinnon, Cale Makar, and Gabriel Landeskog among others. 

The only thing standing in the Lightning’s way of becoming the first team to win three consecutive Stanley Cups since the New York Islanders won four in a row from 1980-84 is the Colorado Avalanche, who are in the Finals for a reason. They are a young, speedy, skilled, and resilient team that is built to win. The Lightning have the perfectly constructed team to cement their team in NHL dynasty conversations, but they still have a long way to go to reach the Islanders’ record of 19 consecutive series wins spanning five seasons from 1980-85 or the Montreal Canadiens’ record of five consecutive Stanley Cups from 1956-60. Regardless, if they win three straight championships, they will have cemented themselves as arguably the best team in the 2000s. 

This series will see two heavyweight Stanley Cup contenders who have extremely talented rosters, are well-coached, and have depth at every position. The Lightning arguably have the better goaltender and the better head coach but both teams have a ton of speed and talent and have outstanding depth, talent, and creativity on offense and defense. The Avalanche are the best team the Lightning has played so far this postseason and the Lightning are the best team the Avalanche has played so far this postseason. 

One storyline that has the potential to be a major factor in deciding who wins the series is that the Lightning have way more experience in the playoffs than the current Avalanche team, and if they get Brayden Point back - which is extremely likely in game one according to head coach Jon Cooper, they will be even more dangerous offensively, even if the Avalanche get starting goalie Darcy Kuemper back for game one, which appears to be the case. 

However, the Avalanche have overcome their fair share of challenges this postseason, know how to win in the playoffs, and have been dominant for most of the postseason. They’ve only lost two games en route to the Finals, tied for the fewest in NHL history. The Avalanche have also won both their Stanley Cup Finals appearances in 1996 and 2001; they are the only team to have a 100 percent win rate in the Finals.

The regular-season series between two teams almost never carries significant weight in the postseason, especially in the Stanley Cup Finals. However, the Avalanche beat the Lightning both times in the regular season and both teams were pretty much at full strength for both matchups. Landeskog had three points in those two games, and MacKinnon had three points in one of the games. Goalie Darcy Kuemper won both games with a 2.40 goals-against average and a .929 save percentage. So the Avalanche have proved they can hold their own against the reigning back-to-back Stanley Cup Champions. 

The Avalanche swept the Nashville Predators in the first round, got past the St. Louis Blues in the second round in six games, and swept the Oilers in the WCF without starting goalie Darcy Kuemper and Nazem Kadri for a significant portion of the series. They’ve played 14 games heading into the Finals. 

The Lightning rallied to get past an explosive Toronto Maple Leafs’ offense in seven games, dominated their state rival Florida Panthers in a four-game sweep in round two before winning four straight to defeat a gritty Rangers’ team in six games in the ECF. They’ve played 17 games heading into the Finals. 

The additional rest could prove helpful to the Avalanche, but they are going up against the Lightning, who’ve arguably been the best playoff team in the last decade.

The Avalanche will have had eight full days of rest from game four against the Oilers to the start of the Stanley Cup Finals. The Lightning had seven full days of rest from the end of round two to the start of round three. They lost the first two games to the Rangers but rallied to win the next four because of their depth, skill, resiliency, and their extensive playoff experience. 

The Avalanche have depth, loads of talent, and are without a doubt a resilient group. But if they fall down 0-2 against the Lighting, it’ll be difficult to see them coming back to win four of the next 5 games, especially when playing against Andrei Vasilevskiy, one of the best goalies in the NHL and an unbeatable force in the playoffs, especially after a loss. 

The Lightning and Avalanche have both been excellent defensively during the postseason. The Lightning allowed only 2.41 goals per game, the second-fewest and the Avalanche allowed 2.86 goals per game, the third-fewest. The Avalanche were the best team in the playoffs at creating turnovers in the neutral zone, forcing opposing offenses to the outside, and limiting dangerous scoring chances - they allowed the fewest shots against per game at 28.21. The Lightning was not quite as good in that category, allowing 31.94 shots per game, but made up for it with their stellar goaltending, offensive capability, and special teams' play.

The Lightning killed 47 of 57 penalties in the postseason, their penalty kill operated at an 82.46 percent efficiency, mainly because of their phenomenal defense led by Victor Hedman but also because of goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy, who is great in the regular season and then even better in the playoffs. The Avalanche surrendered only nine powerplay goals but killed only 28 of 37 penalties, meaning their penalty kill operated at a 75.68 percent efficiency. 

Even though the Lightning have a better penalty kill, it’s the Avalanche’s powerplay unit that ranks superior. The Avalanche have scored 14 powerplay goals on 45 attempts, their unit is clicking at a 31.11 percent efficiency, 2nd best in the playoffs only to the Rangers, who converted on 32.14 percent of their powerplays. The Lightning has scored 14 times on 62 powerplay attempts, their unit operated at a 22.58 efficiency. 

On offense, the Avalanche were the best of any team all throughout the postseason. They scored 4.64 goals per game, 0.5 goals per game better than the next best team, the Penguins, who scored 4.14 goals per game. They also recorded 40.71 shots per game, second-best only behind the Penguins who recorded a whopping 44.3 shots per game. 

The Avalanche also had a goals-for percentage of 60.81 percent, the best in the NHL playoffs (which is taking a team’s goals for and dividing it by their goals for + their goals against), the second best-expected goals-for percentage at 57.73 percent, and had the second-best Corsi-for percentage at 57.72 percent. The Avalanche top the playoffs in basic and advanced NHL statistics. 

The Lightning had the third-best goals-for percentage at 53.85 percent, the ninth-best Corsi-for percentage at 50.33 percent, and the fifth best-expected goals-for percentage at 54.01 percent. They had the eighth-most goals per game with 3.06 and the seventh-most shots per game at 32.47 percent.

Andrei Vasilevskiy has once again been phenomenal in the postseason and is the backbone of his team’s trip to the finals. He is 12-5 in these playoffs, only allowing 39 goals and recording a save percentage of .928 percent and a goals-against-average of 2.27 in 17 playoff games. He is also 17-1 after a loss in the playoffs dating back to 2020.

Darcy Kuemper has been good during the playoffs, but not as good as Andrei Vasilevskiy has been. He also hasn’t played as many games as Vasilevskiy. Kuemper has a 6-2 record in the playoffs after playing 10 games and he has a save percentage of .897 and a goals-against-average of 2.65. Backup goalie Pavel Francouz started four games in the playoffs, played in six, and has a record of 6-0. He has a save percentage of .906 and a goals-against-average of 2.86. Francouz has been great in Kuemper’s absence but Kuemper has been good too and he will start in game one of the Stanley Cup Finals. 

Avalanche coach Jared Bednar has done extremely well to take the Avalanche on a glorious rebuild. He joined the team after their worst season in franchise history in 2016/17 when the team recorded just 48 points in 82 games (22-56-4). He was partially responsible for building their current core along with general manager Joe Sakic including drafting all-star offensive defenseman Cale Makar and trading away Matt Duchene to acquire Sam Girard and a draft pick that turned into defencemen Bowen Byram. 

Over the next few years, Devon Toews - who blossomed into a skilled team Canada defenseman - was acquired for a 2021 and 2022 second-round pick, and Kadri - who has had the best season and playoffs of his career this year - was brought in exchange for Alex Kerfoot and Tyson Barrie. Add that to their current core of MacKinnon and Landeskog among others, this team quickly turned into a contender and has done better and better each season. Thus season, under Bednar, they finally made it to the Western Conference Finals and are now in the Stanley Cup Finals. 

Despite Bednar’s excellent coaching tenure with the Avalanche, bringing them from an irrelevant, struggling team to a Stanley Cup contender after constructing a phenomenal roster, Lightning bench-boss Jon Cooper is a better coach, has won more in the regular season and playoffs with his team, is a bit better schematically and has more playoff experience than Bednar - including coaching in three Stanley Cup Finals before this one, his fourth appearance as a head coach. 

Both teams have a lot on the line. For the Lightning, they have the chance to cement themselves as the best team since 2000 and to win three consecutive Stanley Cups for the first time since the 1980s. If the Lightning win this title, they will likely be regarded as a better team than the Chicago Blackhawks and Detroit Redwings who both won three Stanley Cups in a six-year period over the last two and a half decades and will be held in the same conversation as Gretzky’s Oilers, the 1980-84 Islanders and the 1956-60 Canadiens. 

The only other team (excluding the 2020 and 2021 Lightning) to win back-to-back championships was the 2016 and 2017 Pittsburgh Penguins. They would be considered a dynasty not just in hockey, but in all North American Sports considering the last team to win three trophies in a row is the NBA’s Los Angeles Lakers from 2001 to 2003. In an age of a salary cap and a flat cap, a three-peat is sensational. The players have been great and Jon Cooper and GM Julien Brisebois have done a fantastic job constructing this roster.

For the Avalanche, despite their extremely young and talented roster, they are in a win-now mode. After this season, Nathan MacKinnon will only have one more year left on his contract before he becomes a free agent and demands max money, and rightfully so. Kuemper and Kadri are unrestricted free agents this summer. It might not be their last chance at a Cup, because even without MacKinnon, Kuemper, and Kadri, they still have a loaded roster with guys like Landeskog, Makar, Mikko Rantanen among others, a great coach, and a fantastic general manager who is excellent at building teams and managing assets, but they should do all in their power to win now. If they do, there’s a lot less pressure going forward.

Let’s take a look at x-factors for both teams. Obviously, the team that gets the better goaltending and special teams will have a huge advantage.

But for the Avalanche, MacKinnon is the x-factor because a stellar series from him will be extremely helpful for their chances to win. He has 18 points in the playoffs and leads the team with 11 goals in 23 games. Five of those goals came on the powerplay, which will need to be excellent to beat the Lightning. His speed, strength, shot and playmaking make him a threat and his ability to score in bunches (he has two hattricks this postseason) is also a huge benefit.

For the Lightning, how well Point can play after missing over two full series is a key question. If he is 100 percent, that is a huge advantage, if he is not, will he become a liability? Also, Nikita Kucherov and if he can remain a force for the Lightning is an x-factor. He leads the Lightning with 23 points (6 goals, 17 assists) in 23 playoff games and is a force on both sides of the puck. He is 11 points away from his record of 34 in the 2020 playoffs. 

Now, who will win the Cup? The Avalanche and Lightning are both incredible teams, with a lot of talent, depth, and great coaching. As much as I want the Avalanche to win, I believe the Lightning will win their third consecutive Stanley Cup. Both teams are phenomenal on offense and defense, but the Lightning have the better coach, the better goalie, and more playoff experience than the Avalanche. The Avalanche are also facing injuries to Kadri and Andrew Cogliano, both players are out day-to-day and may not return for any of the series. Samuel Girard is also out with an injury, but he is for sure out for the remainder of the playoffs after breaking his sternum after he took a nasty hit from St. Louis Blues' forward Ivan Barbashev in round two. All three of those guys are important depth players who’ve been good all postseason and critical to the Avs' success, so to be without potentially all three of them for the entire series is difficult. MacKinnon, Landeskog, Makar, and Kuemper will make it close, but a shutout on the road in game seven from Vasilevskiy secures Tampa the win. I hope I’m wrong, but this is what I see right now. Watch game one of the Finals tonight to find out what happens.

Despite the close opening loss, competitive football is finally back in Ottawa

Adamo Marinelli

The Ottawa Redblacks lost a thrilling, defensive battle against the two-time defending Grey Cup champion Winnipeg Blue Bombers by a score of 19-17 after Bombers’ kicker Marc Liegghio’s game-winning field goal with six seconds left in the game. 

One thing is for certain. Competitive football is back in Ottawa with Jeremiah Masoli at the helm. Masoli finished the night completing 24/34 passes for 380 yards, one touchdown, and one interception. Masoli spread the ball out and was slinging it deep down the field all game long. Five Redblacks’ receivers (Jaelon Acklin, Darvin Adams, Marco Dubois, Nate Behar, and Llevi Noel) recorded over 50 yards. Shaq Johnson had 43 yards but caught Masoli’s only passing TD.

The Redblacks outgained the Blue Bombers on the ground and through the air. The Redblacks had 380 passing yards compared to the Blue Bombers’ 239. Zach Collaros was 18/26 for 188 yards and one TD, and Dru Brown finished 3/3 for 51 yards. The Redblacks also had 61 rushing yards compared to 50 from the Blue Bombers. The Redblacks used their run game to open up space downfield for their receivers to get open and the Redblacks controlled the game for the majority of the time. 

After getting a stop on their first defensive drive, the Redblacks came close to getting on the board first on their first offensive possession. Masoli delivered a perfect strike to Acklin on 2nd down and Acklin couldn’t hang on to a pass that fell right into his hands. He was wide open on the play and if he made the catch, he would’ve scored a touchdown and the Redblacks would have a 7-0 lead. However, the Redblacks were forced to punt.

The Bombers responded nicely on their next possession. Zach Collaros showed why he was the CFL’s Most Outstanding Player in 2021 leading his team on a long and efficient 66-yard drive down the field. He gave the raucous crowd something to cheer about by avoiding pressure from the Redblacks’ defense before throwing a beautifully executed 24-yard shovel pass to running back Brady Oliveira who juked around a few Redblacks’ defenders before getting to the Redblacks’ three-yard line. Despite taking a loss on a first-down run, the Bombers recovered well and Collaros found who else but Greg Ellingson for a TD to give the Bombers a 7-0 lead.

The Redblacks’ offense showed they are just as electric as the two-time defending champs. Following a huge kickoff return, it only took Masoli and the offense three plays to find the endzone. Masoli connected with a wide-open Nate Behar in stride for 38 yards to get to the Bombers’ 25-yard line. After a five-yard rush from Devonte Williams, Masoli calmly fired a dime to Shaq Johnson in the endzone for a 20-yard touchdown which tied the game 7-7. 

After scoring the touchdown, the Redblacks’ defense stiffened up, got a stop, and forced the Bombers to punt. Unfortunately, the Redblacks were unable to do anything on their next 

offensive drive and gave the ball back to the Bombers. 

Collaros drove the Bombers drove down the field and at the start of the second quarter, the Redblacks appeared to get a stop on defense and hold the Bombers to a field goal. The Bombers had a 3rd and 2 at the Redblacks’ 40 and looked to be lining up for a 48-yard field goal. However, the holder (backup quarterback Dakota Prukop) bobbled the snap but some quick thinking from Prukopp allowed him to scoop the ball up and maneuver around the defense to pick up the first down with his legs. The Redblacks’ defense bent but didn’t break in the red zone and held the Bombers to a 20-yard field goal to take a 10-7 lead. 

On the first play of the Redblacks’ ensuing drive, Masoli showed everyone once again that he has a powerful arm after launching an accurate 54-yard pass down the field to a wide-open Marco Dubois to set up the Redblacks’ with a first down inside the Bombers’ 20-yard line. The Redblacks were unable to punch it in but the efficient Lewis Ward hit a 17-yard field goal with ease to tie the game 10-10. 

After getting a stop on defense, the Redblacks drove down the field before stalling at midfield. Richie Leone’s 67-yard punt was not returned out of the endzone and the Redblacks took their first lead of the game with a rouge. They led 11-10.

The Blue Bombers drove down the field in very limited time with a few fantastic throws from Collaros. The Redblacks almost capitalized on their outstanding defensive play to that point with a huge turnover but defensive back Monshadrik Hunter couldn’t secure the ball which landed right in his hands after teammate Randall Evans came in unblocked on a blitz which forced Collaros to underthrow the ball. If he made the play, it likely would’ve been a pick-six, instead, the Bombers punted it away.

The Redblacks would start at their own 15 after the punt and drove down the field in no apparent hurry with 2:30 left in the half. A defensive pass interference penalty against the Bombers kept the Redblacks’ drive alive, and the Redblacks efficiently but slowly drove all the way down to the Bombers’ 10-yard line, however, they weren’t able to capitalize on their long drive with a touchdown or a field goal because the clock ran out on them after LaPolice elected not to call a timeout. The Redblacks lead 11-10 at the half, but it should’ve been a lot more. Getting no points on that drive was ultimately quite critical in a two-point loss. 

The Redblacks’ kicking game remained perfect after Lewis Ward hit a 39-yard field goal on the Redblacks’ first drive of the second half to remain perfect on the night to give the Redblacks a 14-10 lead. The connection between the two former Tiger-Cats teammates Masoli and Acklin was the critical force on this drive leading up to the field goal.

On the Bombers’ next possession, the Redblacks’ defense appeared to get another stop on second down but a very questionable defensive pass interference penalty against defensive back Justin Howell gave the Bombers another first drive and kept their drive alive. A few plays later, Howell got his redemption, forcing the first turnover of the night. Bombers’ receiver Dalton Schoen coughed up the ball after being hit hard by Howell and Sherrod Baltimore pounced on the loose ball to give the Redblacks a possession on their own 32-yard line.

Masoli’s ability to air the ball out can pay great dividends but can also cause some problems. Masoli launched deep passes on both plays of the Redblacks’ drive following the fumble recovery and Bombers’ defensive back Nick Taylor made Masoli pay with an interception to set up the Bombers’ near midfield. Neither turnover led to points, and the Redblacks sustained their four-point lead heading into the fourth quarter.

Ottawa’s defense had played very well to that point. After allowing a touchdown on Winnipeg’s opening drive, they only allowed a field goal for the next two quarters. The Bombers had four offensive drives from the beginning of quarter number three until midway through quarter number four and the Redblacks held them to three two and outs and one turnover

Early in the fourth quarter, the Bombers’ got the momentum swing they needed. Short yardage quarterback Caleb Evans appeared to have more than enough for the first down, initially and after he pushed the pile forwards, but a questionable call by the referee led to the Redblacks’ second turnover. The Bombers’ got the ball back on their 47-yard line.

With the clock beginning to become a factor, Collaros’ clutch gene started to take over and the Bombers’ offense started rolling. Collaros engineered a 10-play, 63-yard drive that saw several passes to Nic Demski and Dalton Schoen, and a nice run from Collaros and Prucott capped off the drive with a one-yard TD run to put the Bombers up 16-14 after Liegghio missed the extra point attempt.

The Redblacks still had a chance to win the game and their offense played like it. 

After a long kick return from Terry Williams was called back, the Redblacks started at their own 15-yard line with 6 minutes left, only down 2 points. The Redblacks’ offense did not panic, however. Masoli threw a perfect pass to connect with Acklin on a 52-yard pass to set up shop at the Bombers’ 43-yard line. The Redblacks would advance the ball only 10 yards further before Ward hit his third field goal of the night, this one from 42 yards out to give the Redblacks a 17-16 lead with 3 minutes left.

The Redblacks’ defense got a stop defensively but only drained 1:15 off the clock. The Bombers’ got the ball back at its own 33 with 1:45 left. After safety Antoine Pruneau almost got an interception vs Collaros on the Bombers’ first play of the drive, Collaros ran for a first down on second down but had to come out of the game after taking a hit to the head. 

Dru Brown, the Bombers’ 3rd string QB, came in with relatively no experience, but as calm as ever, he lead the team down the field completing all three of his passes for 51 yards, finding Ellingson, Schoen, and Demski), before a huge run from Oliveria set them up at Ottawa’s 17-yard line with under a minute left. After two plays to inch closer, Liegghio hit a 25-yard field goal to put the Bombers’ up 19-17 with six seconds left. The Redblacks had one more chance with one second left but a miracle lateral play from the Redblacks fell short and the Bombers held on to win and defend their home field on the night they rose another championship banner.

Despite the loss, we saw a lot of positive things from the Redblacks. Their defense looks great and their offense has significantly improved from last year with a talented group of receivers and Masoli at the helm. If the Redblacks are able to fix the little mistakes they make here and there (i.e. manage the clock better before halftime, catch wide-open passes, and secure interceptions), they’ll be able to win a lot of games this season. However, against the best team in the CFL, the Redblacks proved they will be able to compete for a playoff spot – and potentially more – this season.

Things are looking up this season in the Nation’s Capital.

Preseason Week 2 - Redblacks vs Alouettes recap

Adamo Marinelli

June 4, 2022

In a thrilling, defensive battle to close out the CFL preseason, the Montreal Alouettes scored the game-winning TD with less than a minute to go to win 27-26 and complete the comeback over the visiting Ottawa Redblacks. 

The Redblacks started out the game playing extremely well on defense. Their young, aggressive and talented secondary forced four interceptions, three of them came off the arm of Alouettes’ starting QB Vernon Adams, including two from young cornerback Hakeem Bailey. 

The Alouettes rolled out the majority of their starters, especially on offense but the Redblacks gave the majority of their starters the night off and instead played many of their second or third stringers and rookies to continue evaluating them. Alonso Addae had a great preseason debut and several wide receivers had great games like R.J Harris (4 receptions, 59 yards), Brandon Arconado (1 reception, 47 yards), and former Carleton Raven Keaton Bruggeling (2 receptions, 20 yards). 

Quarterback Jeremiah Masoli, running back William Powell, receivers Jaelon Acklin, Darvin Adams, and Nate Behar did not play tonight against the Alouettes. A handful of defensive starters also got the night to rest. 

The Alouettes got on the board first midway through the first quarter and wasted no time in doing so. Adams Jr. played in his first game since an injury in October 2021 and looked great. He used his arms and his legs to lead his offense downfield, including converting on a few third downs to keep the drive alive. He completed four of his six passes on the opening drive including an 18-yard pass to Kaion Julien-Grant, who made a fantastic grab on the play to set up a first and goal. Adams capped the drive using his feet, taking it in himself for a rushing TD, showing the world he is one of the best dual-threat QBs in the league. 

Then, both teams exchanged field goals after their opponents made nice defensive plays. Redblacks’ defensive tackle Davon Coleman’s sack set up a 45-yard field goal for Alouettes’ kicker David Cote and Alouettes’ defensive back Adarius Pickett’s pass breakup forced the Redblacks to settle for a 38-yard field goal which rookie Jose Maltos hit.

Following the two field goals to make it 10-3 for the Alouettes, rookie defensive back Daniel Valente made his presence felt with a crucial interception to stop an Alouettes’ offense that was picking up momentum after a long drive. His interception gave the Redblacks the ball in scoring position at the Alouettes’ 25-yard line after the return, however, on the very next play Caleb Evans’ pass to the endzone intended for B.J. Cunningham was intercepted by Wesley Sutton - who made a phenomenal play on the ball in mid-air - and the score remained 10-3 after the first quarter.

After the first quarter, the Redblacks had only one first down compared to nine from the Alouettes and they only recorded 25 net yards of offense compared to 113 from the Alouettes, which explains why they only had the ball for four of the 15 minutes. The Redbacks played most of their backups which explains the stat discrepancy, but they didn’t give up, especially their young defense, where many guys are fighting for roster spots.

The Redblacks’ defense really started heating up early in the second quarter. On the first play of the second quarter, defensive back Hakeem Bailey made a beautiful read on the ball and jumped a route perfectly for his first interception, which set up the Redblacks’ offense on their own 40. The Redblacks would drive down the field thanks to a nice 20-yard catch by Shaq Johnson and a few smart passes and runs by Caleb Evans which led to a 32- yard field goal. The Redblacks would cut the lead to 10-6 and were gaining some momentum back quickly.

On the very first play of the next Alouettes’ drive, Vernon Adams’ pass deflected off an Alouettes’ receiver and fell right into the hands of 2021 second-round draft pick, versatile free safety Alonso Addae. After his return, the Redblacks had the ball at the Alouettes’ 35-yard line with the chance to take the lead. 

The Redblacks were unable to gain a first down and as a result, they did not capitalize on their defense’s effort with a touchdown. Jose Maltos hit his third field goal of the night, from 37 yards out to cit the Alouettes’ lead to 10-9 with under eight minutes to go in the first half. All three of his field goals were from over 30 yards out. 

After his third interception, Adams Jr. would be replaced by Trevor Harris at quarterback. Adams Jr. ended his night by completing 6/12 passes for 69 yards, three INTs, and a scoring a rushing TD. Like Adams Jr., Trevor Harris wasn’t able to solve the red-hot Redblacks’ defense as his first pass that was nowhere near his intended receiver was intercepted by Hakeem Bailey. Bailey’s second interception of the night gave the Redblacks the ball at Montreal’s 24-yard line. The Redblacks’ defense forced three interceptions in one quarter and four in a quarter and a half which is something you don’t see every day and even more incredible when it’s done by a defense consisting of mostly second-team players and rookies trying to prove themselves.

The Redblacks drove inside the Alouettes’ 15-yard line to the 11 but a nice defensive stand by the Alouettes forced the Redblacks to kick another field goal. Maltos drilled his fourth of the evening from 18 yards out and stayed perfect. The Redblacks took their first lead of the game with Maltos’ fourth field goal and led 12-10 with 4:45 left in the first half.

Twelve points off four turnovers is not ideal, but acceptable in the preseason, especially with your second-string offense. However, in the regular season, with Masoli under center, the Redblacks’ offense needs to capitalize on turnovers with touchdowns, not field goals. Of the Redblacks’ four interceptions, three gave the Redblacks’ offense the ball inside enemy territory, more specifically inside the 35-yard line, however, the Redblacks still could not find the endzone from any of those turnovers.  

Trevor Harris would lead the Alouettes on a long drive down the field before Addae delivered a huge hit on second down to force an incompletion and a punt. The Alouettes’ defense would get a quick three and out and Harris would lead a drive starting from the Redblacks’ 52-yard line thanks to a 32 yard gain from Cole Spieker which set up a 27-yard field goal by Als’ rookie kicker Matt Mengal to give the Als a 13-12 lead at the half. 

Caleb Evans, who played every offensive snap in the first half would be done for the night. He finished 5/13 for 65 yards, one interception, and 19 rush yards on three carries.

Tyrie Adams would start the second half under center for the Redblacks and would engineer a long drive all the way to the Alouettes’ 20-yard line, before linebacker Tyrell Richards, the first overall pick in the 2022 draft who flew by the Redblacks’ young offensive line on his way to force a strip-sack to cause a fumble and give the Alouettes the ball back. Despite the turnover, the Redblacks' defense stayed stout, forcing Mengal to hit his second field goal of the night to regain a four-point lead. 

Adams rebounded nicely on his next drive and he kept his composure in the pocket, scanning the field effectively and making the correct decisions with his arms and his legs. A defensive breakdown by the Alouettes’ defense left Redblacks’ wide receiver Brandon Arcanado wide open. Adams placed a perfect ball, hitting Arcanado in stride for a clutch 47-yard reception which set the Redblacks up inside the Als’ 10-yard line. The Redblacks were unable to punch it in, but Maltos would hit an 18-yard field goal, his fifth of the night, to cut the Als’ lead to 16-15.

A punt single would give the Alouettes a 17-15 lead heading into the fourth quarter. After a well-played third quarter, Adams was determined to win the game for the Redblacks and his play mirrored his determination. After leading the Redblacks on a long, methodical drive down the field, completing some key passes to receivers while utilizing the running game effectively, Adams capped off the drive with an incredible 36-yard touchdown run on a QB draw, showing off his speed, athleticism, and agility. The offensive line got up the field phenomenally to block defenders and open up a running lane for Adams on the run. The Redblacks made the extra point and led 22-17 with 11:45 left in Q4, their first lead since the second quarter.

The Redblacks continued to play great defense and held their five-point lead until midway through the fourth quarter when Ottawa scored a rouge off Gabriel Ballinas’ punt to take a six-point lead. With under five minutes to go, third-string QB David Moore connected on a deep ball to veteran receiver R.J. Harris on a 46-yard pass which set up a phenomenal TD run from runningback Brandon Marshall. However, Marshall’s knee was ruled to be down at the five-yard line and the Redblacks could not finish another drive in the endzone and settled for a field goal. 

The Alouettes responded with a field goal of their own to cut the Redblacks’ lead to 26-20 with 1:50 left. Alouettes’ linebacker/edge rusher Brock Gowanlock recorded two sacks on his team’s last two defensive drives to help secure the win. He also strip-sacked Tyrie Adams in the third quarter and returned the fumble 52 yards. He played very well all night and was an integral part of the Als' victory.  

After the Redblacks’ defense had played so well for most of the night, it was a defensive miscommunication that allowed Alouettes’ fourth-string QB, Davis Alexander, to complete a 53-yard pass to a wide-open Fabian Guerra to put the Als on Ottawa’s two-yard line. On the very next play, running back Ryth-Jean Giraud scampered in for a two-yard TD to leave his mark on the game. The Als’ had a 27-26 lead with 0:28 left and the Redblacks couldn’t respond.

Despite the loss, there is a lot to be excited about heading into the season, including the talented defense, the depth in the secondary, and an offense with so depth and talent at all the skill positions. The Redblacks begin their season on the road against the defending back-to-back Grey Cup-winning Winnipeg Blue Bombers and the Alouettes are on the road against the Calgary Stampeders. It should be a great season of football in the nation's capital.

NBA Finals Preview - Boston Celtics vs Golden State Warriors

Adamo Marinelli

June 2, 2022

The Golden State Warriors are back in the NBA Finals for the sixth time in eight years and are looking to win their fourth championship in that time, which would reassert their dominance from the past decade and continue their elite dynasty. 

The Warriors, after finishing dead last in the NBA in 2019-20 with a record of 15-50, are back in the Finals only two years later, after finishing third in the Western Conference this season with a record of 53-29, thanks to the best three-point shooter in the NBA Steph Curry having a tremendous season, a breakout year from Jordan Poole, Klay Thompson excelling in his return from injury and excellent two-way play from Draymond Green and Andrew Wiggins. In addition, Steve Kerr is one of the best coaches in the NBA and knows how to win in the playoffs. 

They will play a Boston Celtics team who is relatively inexperienced in the playoffs compared to the opponents, but who has the talent, depth, schemes, and high-level coaching to give the Warriors a run for their money in their first finals appearance since 2010.

The Boston Celtics are led by an extremely talented duo of elite two-way all-stars in Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown who are tenacious defensively, can move the ball extremely well and are excellent shooters. In addition, the Celtics were rated as the best defensive team in the NBA this season and they have an incredible first-year head coach in Ime Udoka who has proved a lot this year and has the opportunity to win a title in his first year in charge like Nick Nurse in 2019. 

The Warriors and Celtics tied their season series 1-1. Both wins came on the road. The Warriors won a close game 111-107 against the Celtics thanks to Curry’s 30 points and five three-pointers. Later in the season, the Celtics blew out the Warriors 110-88 after Tatum and Brown both scored 26 points and Curry exited with an injury.

The Warriors are the more rested team after round three. They defeated the Dallas Mavericks led by Luka Doncic and Jalen Brunson in five games to advance to the Finals while the Boston Celtics defeated the Miami Heat number - the one team in the East - in a hard-fought seven-game series to advance to the Finals. The team that has more depth and the team that gets more bench production will have a huge advantage in the series.

Both teams have star-studded starting lineups. The Warriors starting five consists of Steph Curry, Klay Thompson, Andrew Wiggins, Draymond Green, and Kevon Looney. Their bench includes names like Jordan Poole and Jonathan Kuminga, both are very promising prospects who have played well this year, Otto Porter and Andre Iguodala.

The Celtics starting five consists of defensive player of the year Marcus Smart, Jaylen Brown, Jason Tatum, Robert Williams (a fantastic perimeter defender), and Al Horford who is finally making his first Finals appearance. They have a lot of talent on their bench too, with guys like Grant Williams, Daniel Theis, and Derrick White. 

Currently, the Warriors roster is better because they have more playoff experience than the Celtics. The Warriors roster also has players who’ve won a combined 14 rings vs the Celtics who don’t have a single player with a ring. 

However, despite winning their last title 10 years before the Warriors won their last title and despite having less playoff experience on the roster, the Celtics are the better defensive team, and as the adage goes "defense wins championships", which should help them out against Golden State as it did against the Heat.

It’s been a difficult journey for the Warriors since losing to the Raptors in the 2019 finals. Klay Thompson missed over two full seasons with injury, Kevin Durant left to join the Brooklyn Nets and even Steph Curry missed a season as the Warriors failed to make the playoffs for the next two years and critics were saying their dynasty was over. They proved the critics wrong and showed the world their dynasty is not ending anytime soon, even without Durant.

They finished the regular season well and cruised past the Denver Nuggets in five games in round one. Despite not playing their best in round two, they still managed to defeat an up-and-coming Memphis Grizzlies team in six games in round two. Round three is when they really started heating up and they played their best basketball of the postseason against a very good Dallas Mavericks team led by Luka Doncic who can score at will.

Curry averaged 23.8 points, 6.6 rebounds, and 7.4 assists, shooting an incredible .439% from three. Klay Thompson only got better as the series went on and was red-hot once again in a closeout game, scoring 32 points in game five. Green continued to be a physical force defensively that can limit high percentage shots and force turnovers. At the same time, he was a facilitator on offense with his playmaking. Wiggins played tremendous defense all series and was a good depth scorer and Looney recorded 19 offensive boards in five games, helping his team get more possessions. 

Off the bench, Jordan Poole has also been a threat offensively, averaging 16.4 points per game, while shooting a whopping .636% from the field and .400 from three. The Warriors will need to move the ball well against an elite Celtics’ defense to generate open shots and they will need all their shooters to consistently play lights out if they hope to win. The Warriors also have the home-court advantage which is huge considering they have not lost at home this postseason.

The Warriors are a fantastic shooting team, especially from three and they have several players (Curry, Thompson, Poole) that can consistently knock down shots from three or anywhere else on the floor. They are extremely versatile, they can move the ball very well to create open shots for each other, they are fantastic in transition and the Warriors also have a ton of players who can create their own shots, which is important against such a talented Celtics defense. They are not only good from the field, but they can also play physically in the paint too with Draymond Green, Jonathan Kuminga, and Andrew Wiggins. 

Despite their playoff experience and excellent shooting ability, the Warriors have historically had hard times playing against two types of teams in the playoffs in the Steve Kerr era. Teams with LeBron James on them and teams that have multiple athletic, agile, switchable, and long defenders that can guard any player in any position on the floor, just like the Celtics can.

The Celtics have the best defensive rating in the NBA with a rating of 106.2 this season. They have been just as good in the playoffs. As a team, they excel at getting into passing lanes, forcing turnovers, and limiting teams’ high percentage scoring opportunities by closing out shooting lanes, forcing the opposing offensive players to the outside, and by sending help to shooters. The Celtics also switch on almost half of their opponents' screens, which will make life a little tougher for Curry and the rest of the Warriors to get open looks. Their zone defense allows Robert Williams to protect the rim while also enabling other players to guard the middle and the three. 

Finally, Marcus Smart matched up very well against Steph Curry in the regular season, if he can do it again in the playoffs, that’s a huge advantage for the Celtics. If Curry hits his shots at will, that will help the Warriors’offense get going. Steph Curry is one of the - if not the - best shooters in the NBA, but he is a very unselfish player. If the Celtics send two guys at him, he will almost certainly pass it to the open man instead of taking the shot. His willingness to make the right play and how good he is with and without the ball in his hands is one of the reasons the Warriors have been good for so long. If Smart plays him one on one, both players will have their moments. Curry will hit his shots and Smart will get his steals and blocks. If they double Curry, he will exploit the Celtics with his excellent playmaking. 

If they want to win, the Celtics must continue playing excellent defense against an elite offensive Warriors team. The Warriors are one of the most efficient offenses in the league this season and are one of the best shooting teams in the league. They hit the third-most three-pointers in the league and had the sixth-best three-point shooting percentage and the eighth-best field goal percentage in the league. Not to mention Klay Thompson and Steph Curry are among the best shooters (two and three-point FGs) in the NBA.

But they also need all of their super-stars and depth players to consistently play at the top of their game offensively against a Warriors’ defense that is nearly as good as the Celtics’ defense. The Warriors have the second-best defensive rating in the NBA at 106.6 on the season. Their defense isn’t as good as the Celtics’ but they have big men that can guard the paint, agile big men that can close out shooting lanes and roll off screens, and fast, athletic and agile guards who can defend any position. The Warriors are also great at forcing turnovers, however. the Celtics don’t turn the ball over a lot, so whoever wins the turnover battle will have an advantage. 

Even though the Warriors have more playoff experience, the team with the most depth will be the one to win the series. Not just depth off the bench, but also depth in the sense that you have numerous players on the floor that can score, defend, pass and shoot. The Celtics have a lot of depth. When it’s not Jayson Tatum, it’s Jaylen Brown. When it’s not Brown, it’s Marcus Smart, and when it’s not Smart, it’s Robert or Grant Williams or Derrick White.

Tatum is averaging 27 points per game during the playoffs and Brown is averaging 23 points per game, however, Tatum has been held to under 10 points on more than one occasion and Brown has been held to just 12 points on two occasions too. But when Tatum and Brown have off games, other players on their roster have great games.

The Celtics’ ability to have many high-scoring players in each game helps them win many playoff games, even tight, back and forth games. In game seven of the Eastern Conference Finals against the Heat, Tatum had 26 points and Brown and Smart each had 24.

In addition to getting well-balanced scoring from their starters and bench players, the Celtics have numerous guys on their roster that are incredibly talented defensively including Robert Williams, who is one of the best rim protectors in the league and made Bam Adebayo’s life tough during the Eastern Conference Finals and 2022 defensive player of the year Marcus Smart. However, Tatum and Brown are also skilled defensively and cannot be taken lightly.

With multiple players on the floor able to pass, shoot, rebound, defend and play physically, Boston is one of the most well-rounded teams in the league, which is why they were able to beat great teams like Brooklyn, Milwaukee, and Miami en route to the finals. The Warriors do get great defense from everyone and can get high-scoring performances from multiple guys on their roster, but most of the time the Warriors win, it’s because of Curry, Thompson, or Green.

There is a lot at stake for both teams in these Finals. Whether the Warriors win or lose, they appear to have found long-term success without Kevin Durant as Kevon Looney is the only free agent this summer. After this playoff run, they will have a ton of chemistry. Poole, Kuminga, and Wiseman will only get better. Curry, Thompson, and Green are still playing at a high level. This will not be their last chance at a title, they could be even stronger next season.

If they do win the title, however, it proves they can win championships without Kevin Durant - as they did in 2015 - and if they win their fourth title, they will likely open next season as a favourite to win the championship. Winning four titles, with an opportunity to go for a fifth or a sixth in an era with LeBron James just explains how good of a team they are. The Warriors are already one of the greatest dynasties in the NBA, another title would continue to add to that resume.

If the Celtics win the title, they can finally leapfrog rival Los Angeles Lakers with their 18th championship, the most in NBA history and they can prove that their team-building strategy consisting of drafting and developing players works. Tatum, Smart, Brown, Grant, and Robert Williams were all draft picks from the last 10 years that the Celtics’ coaching staff have developed. The Celtics kept most of their young talent despite many early playoff exits in the last few years, which has ultimately given them a chance to win a title. 

Finally, Udoka has the chance to win the title in his first year in charge of the team like Nurse did in 2019, which is an incredible achievement that takes talent, resiliency, and making several adaptions to your game plans, rotations, and strategies. Also, if the Celtics win, they will be a contender in the Eastern Conference and a threat to the rest of the NBA for years to come. 

This will be an interesting series and very entertaining regardless of who wins. Despite the Celtics’ great defense, I believe the Warriors’ shooting and playoff experience will be too much to take. The Warriors are the better-coached team and will make the necessary adjustments to open up the Celtics’ defense and they will win in a hard-fought seven-game series.

2022 NHL Playoffs - Conference Finals Predictions

Adamo Marinelli

May 31, 2022

Just like that, there were four. The Edmonton Oilers dominated their provincial rival Calgary Flames in five games to advance to the Western Conference Finals and the Colorado Avalanche scored the series winner with five seconds left in game six to defeat a very tough St. Louis Blues team.

In the East, the Tampa Bay Lightning made quick work of their state rivals, the Florida Panthers, winning their semifinal series in a sweep (the big momentum swing was when the Lightning scored with under five seconds left in game two to take a 2-0 series lead.). Meanwhile, the New York Rangers came back from down 2-1 and 3-2 in the series with great goaltending and production from all four lines to beat a talented and well-rounded Carolina Hurricanes team. 

Let’s analyze both conference finals series and predict who’ll advance to the Stanley Cup Finals.

WEST - Colorado Avalanche vs Edmonton Oilers

The Colorado Avalanche are Stanley Cup contenders with their ability to score at will, great defense, and excellent goaltending. They are a great regular-season team but have struggled to advance far in the playoffs. Despite having a lot of success in the regular season from 2018-to 2021, they lost in the first round once and the second round three times. They have struggled mightily in the postseason for multiple years, the last time they made it to the conference finals was in 2002. For a Stanley Cup contender, a round-two exit is not good enough. This season, they have the core, the talent, and the depth to win a Stanley Cup, especially with Nathan MacKinnon, Gabriel Landeskog, Cale Makar, Mikko Rantanen, Nazem Kadri, and Darcy Kuemper among others. Now, only the Oilers can prevent them from getting to the Cup Finals.

Speaking of the Oilers, very few people expected them to make it this far. They squeaked past the Kings in a tight seven-game series and after being down 3-2 in that series, several analysts thought the Kings would win the series. But after they made quick work of the Flames thanks to incredible team defense and stellar performances from Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, they also look like Stanley Cup contenders. Goaltender Mike Smith didn’t even have a great series against the Flames, but the Oilers still won the series with relative ease. If he plays better, McDavid and Draisaitl keep playing like all-stars (they both lead the playoffs in points with 26 each) and the Oilers continue playing well defensively, they can challenge for the Cup. The Oilers have had their struggles in recent playoff years despite the brilliance of their dynamic duo, but an increase in depth scoring this year, especially in the playoffs, has helped them reach the conference finals.

This series will see two incredibly talented offensive teams, both with a duo of superstars that are able to carry the load but also have incredible depth and possess the ability to get offensive production from anyone. The Oilers’ duo of McDavid and Draisaitl each have 26 points in the playoffs, 10 points above the next highest scorer, and an astounding 2.17 points per game.

McDavid does deserve a lot of the credit, especially because of his ability to take over games on the regular and his impact on both sides of the puck, but Leon Draisaitl has been a force in the playoffs, especially in round two with 17 points against the Flames; he recorded at least three points in all five games. The Oilers also got scoring from players outside their dynamic duo. Evander Kane, deemed a risky signing at the deadline has 12 goals in 12 playoff games, including a few hattricks. He has a chance to break Edmonton’s goal-scoring record of 19 in a single postseason. Zach Hyman led the Oilers in scoring with six goals and is on a five-game goal-scoring streak entering the WCF.  Ryan-Nugent Hopkins has also provided some nice depth scoring with six points vs Calgary.

The main worry for the Oilers, however, will be goaltending and whether or not Mike Smith can be the guy to get them to the Stanley Cup Finals. It’s been over 10 years since Mike Smith helped bring the Arizona Coyotes to the WCF. Even though he wasn’t the reason why the Oilers beat the Flames, he has still been very good overall this postseason, with a .927 save percentage, better than Avalanche goaltender Darcy Kuemper. He has had a few blunders in the playoffs but has also made a few critical saves to help the Oilers win games.

The Oilers have a huge advantage over many teams with their duo of McDavid and Draisaitl. The Avalanche’s counter to that dynamic duo is Nathan MacKinnon who is in the mix for the top five players in the world today with his excellent hockey IQ, his fantastic shot, play-making, his ability to find his teammates anywhere on the ice at any time and deliver crisp passes to them, and his solid defense too. The Avalanche’s offense goes through him and he will be the biggest threat the Oilers’ defense has had to deal with all season. Also, their captain Gabriel Landeskog is a phenomenal two-way player that can hurt defenses in a lot of ways and will be an asset in the series.

Even though the Oilers have improved their depth scoring, their main threats are atop the depth chart from guys like McDavid, Draisaitl, Kane, and Hyman. The Avalanche can beat teams from anywhere. MacKinnon is only the start of their scoring abilities. Nazem Kadri has carried his best career regular season into the playoffs recording a point per game, is solid on both sides of the puck, and does not appear to be close to a suspension either. In addition, Cale Makar is one of the best offensive defensemen in the NHL. He plays with great physicality, has fantastic playmaking ability, can find his teammates all over the ice, has a great shot, a nose for the net and he averages 1.30 points per game, the same as MacKinnon, which is incredible for a defenseman. Devon Toews should also not be disregarded too, recording a point in seven of the Avalanche’s 10 playoff games.

The Avalanche are unsurprisingly the best team in the playoffs allowing the fewest amount of shots per game (27) and allowing the fewest amount of scoring chances per game (20.03 per 60) but Darcy Kuemper has underperformed slightly this postseason. He hasn’t allowed a ton of goals but has a goals-against average of .244 and a save percentage of .904% and this is with a lighter workload than many of the other postseason goalies. Kuemper has a minus-2.18 goals saved above expected, which is the lowest mark of any remaining netminder in the playoffs. If Edmonton’s goal-scorers can do a better job of getting high-quality scoring chances than the Avalanche’s other opponents (Nashville and St. Louis), there may be a problem for the Avalanche. Both the Predators and Blues are talented offenses, but it’s not far-fetched to say Edmonton’s goal scorers are better than the Predators and Blues’ goal scorers. And so it’s not unlikely McDavid and Draisaitl will do that, which could be trouble, despite the Avalanche’s excellent defense.

Another thing to look at in this series is the Oilers and Avalanche rank one and two in the playoffs in goals for per game with 4.33 and 4.30 respectively. The Avalanche’s defense is better than the Oilers’ however. The Avalanche have allowed the fourth-fewest goals against per game 2.70 compared to the Oilers’ allowing 3.08 goals against per game, sixth-best. A really interesting statistic to keep an eye on is that Avalanche have the best playoff powerplay, operating at a 34.5% efficiency. The Oilers’ powerplay is operating at a 28.2% efficiency, fifth-best in the playoffs. However, the Oilers have a far superior penalty kill than the Avalanche (85.4% to 73.11%). Despite the Avalanche’s strong powerplay, the Oilers’ strong penalty kill has the potential to shut down the Avalanche. Meanwhile, the Oilers have a weaker powerplay, but it can exceed expectations against a weaker Avalanche penalty kill.

X-factors for the Oilers are how well Mike Smith will play and if their powerplay can outclass the Avalanche penalty kill. For the Avalanche, it is all about if Darcy Kuemper plays well enough to support his talented defense and how if their special teams unit can play better than the Oilers. Nathan MacKinnon will also have to have another stellar series to match McDavid’s production.

This series will be a tight, back and forth series between two talented offensive teams who have defenses better than their goaltending. I predict this series will go to seven games and despite great defense from both teams, there will be a lot of goals scored in every game. Despite McDavid’s and Draisaitl’s immaculate talent and players around them playing very well in support, I believe the Avs will win this series in seven games. The home-ice advantage for the Avalanche really helps and the Avalanche did beat the Oilers 2-1 in their season series which also helps things.

EAST - Tampa Bay Lightning vs New York Rangers

The back-to-back defending Stanley Cup Champions Tampa Bay Lightning are well-rested heading into the Eastern Conference Finals and have a lot of momentum. They are looking like they will become the first team since the New York Islanders in the 1980s to three-peat. The New York Rangers decimated the Carolina Hurricanes 6-2 in game seven to advance to their first Eastern Conference Finals since 2014-15 when they also lost to the Tampa Bay Lightning in seven games.

Tampa Bay is the heavy favourite in this series, which is extremely understandable considering the ridiculously large amount of talent at every position on their roster, especially goaltending, and their immense amount of playoff experience, having won 10 consecutive playoff series and counting in the last three years. Despite the Lightning being the favourite, the Rangers will be no easy task. They closed out a talented, well-balanced Hurricanes team on the road in game seven. The Hurricanes were previously 7-0 at home in the playoffs. That tells us a lot about how dynamic the Rangers are, how talented they are and how well they play on both sides of the puck.

This series will be the battle of two goalies and whichever team’s goalie does better will likely win 

the series. Andrei Vasilesvkiy and Igor Shesterkin have been playing lights out throughout the 

entire regular season and during the playoffs too. Vasilevskiy is especially incredible after suffering a loss, with a record of 15-0 and a goals-against-average of 1.31, a save percentage of .948, and five shutouts. Shesterkin was excellent against the Penguins and the Hurricanes and was one of the Rangers' keys to advancing to the ECF.

The Rangers have a home-ice advantage in the series because even though both teams finished with 110 points, the Rangers had 52 wins and the Lightning had 51. The Rangers also finished second in their division, and the Lightning finished third. Interestingly, the Rangers swept the season series against the Lightning winning all three games by an aggregate score of 10-4. However, the regular season is seldom used as a marker for how a playoff series will go.

Offensively, the Lightning were the better team in the regular season scoring 3.48 goals per game and the Rangers had 3.05 goals per game. Both numbers are impressive, but the star-power in Tampa Bay is slightly better than that in New York which explains the goal difference. In the playoffs, the Rangers scored 3.43 goals per game compared to the Lightning who scored 3.27 goals per game. The Rangers played 14 games while the Lightning only played 11. 

In the regular season, Mika Zibanejad was the star player for the Rangers scoring four goals and three assists in the season series vs the Lightning. Meanwhile, the Lightning struggled to score goals against a skilled Rangers’ defense that gave up only 2.33 goals per game in the regular season. The Lightning’s big three of Steven Stamkos, Brayden Point, and Victor Hedman had only two points in three games. Nikita Kucherov was a different story, however.

In the playoffs, the Rangers' leading scorers are Zibanejad with 19 points, Adam Fox with 18 points, and Andrew Copp with 12 points. For the Lightning, the leading scorers are Nikita Kucherov with 15 points, Victor Hedman with 10, and Ross Colton with eight. Steven Stamkos and Brayden Point have been quieter than expected, although to be fair, Point has been out with an injury for most of the playoffs. 

Another thing to note is that the Rangers’ powerplay has been superior to the Lightning’s powerplay in the postseason. The Rangers have scored more powerplay goals on fewer chances making their unit more efficient. The Rangers scored 13 goals on 40 powerplay attempts, a powerplay percentage of 32.50. Meanwhile, the Lightning scored 11 goals on 48 powerplay attempts, converting at a percentage of 22.92. 

All things considered, both teams are extremely talented offensively, can get scoring from all four of their lines, and have a long list of all-stars and skilled players. Brayden Point is still injured and even though he may come back at some point during the series, it is still up in the air on if and when he comes back. That is an advantage to the Rangers, as it is one less dominant goal scorer and playmaker to worry about.

Defensively, both teams are very solid. During the season, the Rangers gave up only 2.33 goals per game, the second-fewest in the NHL. The Rangers were pretty good defensively all season, but were one of the best defensive teams from the beginning of March until the end of the season, an excellent time to heat up defensively. The Lightning allowed 2.45 goals per game, the fifth-best in the league.

The Rangers struggled defensively in round one against the Penguins, allowing the Penguins to spend a lot of time in their offensive zone, allowing a lot of shots against which translated into goals against. They allowed 4.14 goals per game against the Penguins, including allowing seven goals twice. After trailing 3-1 in the series, they tightened up defensively and only allowed nine goals in the final three games. Still a lot but less than the 20 conceded in the first four games. They fared much better against the Hurricanes, allowing only 13 goals the entire series. The Rangers still gave up plenty of shots but did a good job to keep the Hurricanes to the outside and limit their high-quality scoring chances. The Rangers brought their playoff goals against average to 3.00 after round two after it was 4.14 after round one as a result of allowing only 1.86 goals per game against the Hurricanes.

The Lightning also struggled defensively in the first round against a great offensive team, allowing 24 goals against the Toronto Maple Leafs in round one, giving up 3.42 goals per game. They even conceded five goals on two occasions and four goals once. Believe it or not, the Lightning were actually outscored 24-23 in the first round despite winning the series in seven games. But they tightened it up, holding the Leafs to eight goals in the final three games, thanks to a fantastic penalty kill and incredible play from Andrei Vasilevskiy. In the second round, they played like the best defense in the league. They only allowed three goals against the Florida Panthers in four games. The Lightning shut down the Panthers’ offense and their powerplay, again because of their entire team playing fantastic defense and Vasilevskiy playing up to his incredibly high potential too. This is the same Panthers team that was the best offensive team in the regular season scoring 4.11 goals per game and who were a top-five powerplay unit, operating at an efficiency of 24.43 percent. That just shows how talented the Lightning defense is and how good Vasilevskiy is. In round two, the Lightning gave up 0.75 goals per game and they have given up an average of 2.45 goals per game. In the playoffs, the Rangers scored two short-handed goals and gave up three. The Lightning scored one and gave up two.

Like I mentioned before, goaltending will likely decide this series as both teams have a ton of talent, many star players, and are excellent on offense and defense. Both Shesterkin and Vasilevskiy are favourites to win the Vezina Trophy and also strong Hart Trophy candidates too. Shesterkin has been fantastic all year with a 36-13-4 record, where he posted a .935 save percentage and a 2.07 goals-against average, both marks are the best among goalies in the NHL. Against the Lightning, he dominated going 3-0 with a 1.30 GAA and a .958 save percentage. Those numbers make him the heavy favourite for the Vezina. 

Vasilevskiy comes into the playoffs as the reigning Conn Smythe Trophy winner after leading the Lightning to back-to-back Stanley Cups. This season, he recorded a 39-18-5 record this year with a .916 save percentage and 2.46 goals-against average. In the playoffs, he’s 8-3 with a .932 save percentage and a 2.22 GAA. He also has a record of 15-0 and a goals-against-average of 1.31, a save percentage of .948, and five shutouts after a loss in the postseason. This undefeated run will be tested against New York. Vasilevskiy struggled against the Rangers in the regular season (0-2, 3.03 GAA, and a .875 SV%) but he is a different monster in the playoffs and will not struggle as he did in the regular season. The goalies are x-factors in the playoffs, whichever goalie is better, that team will win the series. Also, the team that can cause the most traffic in front and screen the opposing goalie will win this series, the better goalie will not be affected by this as much.

I believe the Lightning will win in six games. Igor Shesterkin is a phenomenal goalie and had a fantastic season, but Andrei Vasilevskiy is arguably better, especially in the playoffs where he has played so well for so many years. 

The Rangers are an extremely resilient team. After winning 27 games in comeback fashion during the regular season, they’ve won 5 straight elimination games in these playoffs. They can play from behind and never give up. Despite this, the Lightning overall are the better team on both sides of the puck, can win in many ways (they can win high scoring games, low scoring defensive games, can hold onto leads, and can come back from leads) and have more playoff experience with their current core compared to the Rangers. The Lightning are also the better-coached team; Jon Cooper is more experienced than Gerrard Gallant. Yes, the Rangers have home-ice advantage, but so did Florida. The Rangers won’t get swept, but they won’t win the series.

If my predictions come true, it will be a Colorado Avalanche vs Tampa Bay Lightning Stanley Cup Finals. If that's the case, I believe the Avalanche will win in seven. The Avs are the only active team in the NHL to have never lost a Stanley Cup Finals. The Avs made the Cup Final only twice in 1996 and 2001 and won both times. They will keep the streak alive. Stanley Cup Final preview article to come following the conclusion of the conference finals. Stay tuned.