Adamo Marinelli
May 31, 2022
Just like that, there were four. The Edmonton Oilers dominated their provincial rival Calgary Flames in five games to advance to the Western Conference Finals and the Colorado Avalanche scored the series winner with five seconds left in game six to defeat a very tough St. Louis Blues team.
In the East, the Tampa Bay Lightning made quick work of their state rivals, the Florida Panthers, winning their semifinal series in a sweep (the big momentum swing was when the Lightning scored with under five seconds left in game two to take a 2-0 series lead.). Meanwhile, the New York Rangers came back from down 2-1 and 3-2 in the series with great goaltending and production from all four lines to beat a talented and well-rounded Carolina Hurricanes team.
Let’s analyze both conference finals series and predict who’ll advance to the Stanley Cup Finals.
WEST - Colorado Avalanche vs Edmonton Oilers
The Colorado Avalanche are Stanley Cup contenders with their ability to score at will, great defense, and excellent goaltending. They are a great regular-season team but have struggled to advance far in the playoffs. Despite having a lot of success in the regular season from 2018-to 2021, they lost in the first round once and the second round three times. They have struggled mightily in the postseason for multiple years, the last time they made it to the conference finals was in 2002. For a Stanley Cup contender, a round-two exit is not good enough. This season, they have the core, the talent, and the depth to win a Stanley Cup, especially with Nathan MacKinnon, Gabriel Landeskog, Cale Makar, Mikko Rantanen, Nazem Kadri, and Darcy Kuemper among others. Now, only the Oilers can prevent them from getting to the Cup Finals.
Speaking of the Oilers, very few people expected them to make it this far. They squeaked past the Kings in a tight seven-game series and after being down 3-2 in that series, several analysts thought the Kings would win the series. But after they made quick work of the Flames thanks to incredible team defense and stellar performances from Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, they also look like Stanley Cup contenders. Goaltender Mike Smith didn’t even have a great series against the Flames, but the Oilers still won the series with relative ease. If he plays better, McDavid and Draisaitl keep playing like all-stars (they both lead the playoffs in points with 26 each) and the Oilers continue playing well defensively, they can challenge for the Cup. The Oilers have had their struggles in recent playoff years despite the brilliance of their dynamic duo, but an increase in depth scoring this year, especially in the playoffs, has helped them reach the conference finals.
This series will see two incredibly talented offensive teams, both with a duo of superstars that are able to carry the load but also have incredible depth and possess the ability to get offensive production from anyone. The Oilers’ duo of McDavid and Draisaitl each have 26 points in the playoffs, 10 points above the next highest scorer, and an astounding 2.17 points per game.
McDavid does deserve a lot of the credit, especially because of his ability to take over games on the regular and his impact on both sides of the puck, but Leon Draisaitl has been a force in the playoffs, especially in round two with 17 points against the Flames; he recorded at least three points in all five games. The Oilers also got scoring from players outside their dynamic duo. Evander Kane, deemed a risky signing at the deadline has 12 goals in 12 playoff games, including a few hattricks. He has a chance to break Edmonton’s goal-scoring record of 19 in a single postseason. Zach Hyman led the Oilers in scoring with six goals and is on a five-game goal-scoring streak entering the WCF. Ryan-Nugent Hopkins has also provided some nice depth scoring with six points vs Calgary.
The main worry for the Oilers, however, will be goaltending and whether or not Mike Smith can be the guy to get them to the Stanley Cup Finals. It’s been over 10 years since Mike Smith helped bring the Arizona Coyotes to the WCF. Even though he wasn’t the reason why the Oilers beat the Flames, he has still been very good overall this postseason, with a .927 save percentage, better than Avalanche goaltender Darcy Kuemper. He has had a few blunders in the playoffs but has also made a few critical saves to help the Oilers win games.
The Oilers have a huge advantage over many teams with their duo of McDavid and Draisaitl. The Avalanche’s counter to that dynamic duo is Nathan MacKinnon who is in the mix for the top five players in the world today with his excellent hockey IQ, his fantastic shot, play-making, his ability to find his teammates anywhere on the ice at any time and deliver crisp passes to them, and his solid defense too. The Avalanche’s offense goes through him and he will be the biggest threat the Oilers’ defense has had to deal with all season. Also, their captain Gabriel Landeskog is a phenomenal two-way player that can hurt defenses in a lot of ways and will be an asset in the series.
Even though the Oilers have improved their depth scoring, their main threats are atop the depth chart from guys like McDavid, Draisaitl, Kane, and Hyman. The Avalanche can beat teams from anywhere. MacKinnon is only the start of their scoring abilities. Nazem Kadri has carried his best career regular season into the playoffs recording a point per game, is solid on both sides of the puck, and does not appear to be close to a suspension either. In addition, Cale Makar is one of the best offensive defensemen in the NHL. He plays with great physicality, has fantastic playmaking ability, can find his teammates all over the ice, has a great shot, a nose for the net and he averages 1.30 points per game, the same as MacKinnon, which is incredible for a defenseman. Devon Toews should also not be disregarded too, recording a point in seven of the Avalanche’s 10 playoff games.
The Avalanche are unsurprisingly the best team in the playoffs allowing the fewest amount of shots per game (27) and allowing the fewest amount of scoring chances per game (20.03 per 60) but Darcy Kuemper has underperformed slightly this postseason. He hasn’t allowed a ton of goals but has a goals-against average of .244 and a save percentage of .904% and this is with a lighter workload than many of the other postseason goalies. Kuemper has a minus-2.18 goals saved above expected, which is the lowest mark of any remaining netminder in the playoffs. If Edmonton’s goal-scorers can do a better job of getting high-quality scoring chances than the Avalanche’s other opponents (Nashville and St. Louis), there may be a problem for the Avalanche. Both the Predators and Blues are talented offenses, but it’s not far-fetched to say Edmonton’s goal scorers are better than the Predators and Blues’ goal scorers. And so it’s not unlikely McDavid and Draisaitl will do that, which could be trouble, despite the Avalanche’s excellent defense.
Another thing to look at in this series is the Oilers and Avalanche rank one and two in the playoffs in goals for per game with 4.33 and 4.30 respectively. The Avalanche’s defense is better than the Oilers’ however. The Avalanche have allowed the fourth-fewest goals against per game 2.70 compared to the Oilers’ allowing 3.08 goals against per game, sixth-best. A really interesting statistic to keep an eye on is that Avalanche have the best playoff powerplay, operating at a 34.5% efficiency. The Oilers’ powerplay is operating at a 28.2% efficiency, fifth-best in the playoffs. However, the Oilers have a far superior penalty kill than the Avalanche (85.4% to 73.11%). Despite the Avalanche’s strong powerplay, the Oilers’ strong penalty kill has the potential to shut down the Avalanche. Meanwhile, the Oilers have a weaker powerplay, but it can exceed expectations against a weaker Avalanche penalty kill.
X-factors for the Oilers are how well Mike Smith will play and if their powerplay can outclass the Avalanche penalty kill. For the Avalanche, it is all about if Darcy Kuemper plays well enough to support his talented defense and how if their special teams unit can play better than the Oilers. Nathan MacKinnon will also have to have another stellar series to match McDavid’s production.
This series will be a tight, back and forth series between two talented offensive teams who have defenses better than their goaltending. I predict this series will go to seven games and despite great defense from both teams, there will be a lot of goals scored in every game. Despite McDavid’s and Draisaitl’s immaculate talent and players around them playing very well in support, I believe the Avs will win this series in seven games. The home-ice advantage for the Avalanche really helps and the Avalanche did beat the Oilers 2-1 in their season series which also helps things.
EAST - Tampa Bay Lightning vs New York Rangers
The back-to-back defending Stanley Cup Champions Tampa Bay Lightning are well-rested heading into the Eastern Conference Finals and have a lot of momentum. They are looking like they will become the first team since the New York Islanders in the 1980s to three-peat. The New York Rangers decimated the Carolina Hurricanes 6-2 in game seven to advance to their first Eastern Conference Finals since 2014-15 when they also lost to the Tampa Bay Lightning in seven games.
Tampa Bay is the heavy favourite in this series, which is extremely understandable considering the ridiculously large amount of talent at every position on their roster, especially goaltending, and their immense amount of playoff experience, having won 10 consecutive playoff series and counting in the last three years. Despite the Lightning being the favourite, the Rangers will be no easy task. They closed out a talented, well-balanced Hurricanes team on the road in game seven. The Hurricanes were previously 7-0 at home in the playoffs. That tells us a lot about how dynamic the Rangers are, how talented they are and how well they play on both sides of the puck.
This series will be the battle of two goalies and whichever team’s goalie does better will likely win
the series. Andrei Vasilesvkiy and Igor Shesterkin have been playing lights out throughout the
entire regular season and during the playoffs too. Vasilevskiy is especially incredible after suffering a loss, with a record of 15-0 and a goals-against-average of 1.31, a save percentage of .948, and five shutouts. Shesterkin was excellent against the Penguins and the Hurricanes and was one of the Rangers' keys to advancing to the ECF.
The Rangers have a home-ice advantage in the series because even though both teams finished with 110 points, the Rangers had 52 wins and the Lightning had 51. The Rangers also finished second in their division, and the Lightning finished third. Interestingly, the Rangers swept the season series against the Lightning winning all three games by an aggregate score of 10-4. However, the regular season is seldom used as a marker for how a playoff series will go.
Offensively, the Lightning were the better team in the regular season scoring 3.48 goals per game and the Rangers had 3.05 goals per game. Both numbers are impressive, but the star-power in Tampa Bay is slightly better than that in New York which explains the goal difference. In the playoffs, the Rangers scored 3.43 goals per game compared to the Lightning who scored 3.27 goals per game. The Rangers played 14 games while the Lightning only played 11.
In the regular season, Mika Zibanejad was the star player for the Rangers scoring four goals and three assists in the season series vs the Lightning. Meanwhile, the Lightning struggled to score goals against a skilled Rangers’ defense that gave up only 2.33 goals per game in the regular season. The Lightning’s big three of Steven Stamkos, Brayden Point, and Victor Hedman had only two points in three games. Nikita Kucherov was a different story, however.
In the playoffs, the Rangers' leading scorers are Zibanejad with 19 points, Adam Fox with 18 points, and Andrew Copp with 12 points. For the Lightning, the leading scorers are Nikita Kucherov with 15 points, Victor Hedman with 10, and Ross Colton with eight. Steven Stamkos and Brayden Point have been quieter than expected, although to be fair, Point has been out with an injury for most of the playoffs.
Another thing to note is that the Rangers’ powerplay has been superior to the Lightning’s powerplay in the postseason. The Rangers have scored more powerplay goals on fewer chances making their unit more efficient. The Rangers scored 13 goals on 40 powerplay attempts, a powerplay percentage of 32.50. Meanwhile, the Lightning scored 11 goals on 48 powerplay attempts, converting at a percentage of 22.92.
All things considered, both teams are extremely talented offensively, can get scoring from all four of their lines, and have a long list of all-stars and skilled players. Brayden Point is still injured and even though he may come back at some point during the series, it is still up in the air on if and when he comes back. That is an advantage to the Rangers, as it is one less dominant goal scorer and playmaker to worry about.
Defensively, both teams are very solid. During the season, the Rangers gave up only 2.33 goals per game, the second-fewest in the NHL. The Rangers were pretty good defensively all season, but were one of the best defensive teams from the beginning of March until the end of the season, an excellent time to heat up defensively. The Lightning allowed 2.45 goals per game, the fifth-best in the league.
The Rangers struggled defensively in round one against the Penguins, allowing the Penguins to spend a lot of time in their offensive zone, allowing a lot of shots against which translated into goals against. They allowed 4.14 goals per game against the Penguins, including allowing seven goals twice. After trailing 3-1 in the series, they tightened up defensively and only allowed nine goals in the final three games. Still a lot but less than the 20 conceded in the first four games. They fared much better against the Hurricanes, allowing only 13 goals the entire series. The Rangers still gave up plenty of shots but did a good job to keep the Hurricanes to the outside and limit their high-quality scoring chances. The Rangers brought their playoff goals against average to 3.00 after round two after it was 4.14 after round one as a result of allowing only 1.86 goals per game against the Hurricanes.
The Lightning also struggled defensively in the first round against a great offensive team, allowing 24 goals against the Toronto Maple Leafs in round one, giving up 3.42 goals per game. They even conceded five goals on two occasions and four goals once. Believe it or not, the Lightning were actually outscored 24-23 in the first round despite winning the series in seven games. But they tightened it up, holding the Leafs to eight goals in the final three games, thanks to a fantastic penalty kill and incredible play from Andrei Vasilevskiy. In the second round, they played like the best defense in the league. They only allowed three goals against the Florida Panthers in four games. The Lightning shut down the Panthers’ offense and their powerplay, again because of their entire team playing fantastic defense and Vasilevskiy playing up to his incredibly high potential too. This is the same Panthers team that was the best offensive team in the regular season scoring 4.11 goals per game and who were a top-five powerplay unit, operating at an efficiency of 24.43 percent. That just shows how talented the Lightning defense is and how good Vasilevskiy is. In round two, the Lightning gave up 0.75 goals per game and they have given up an average of 2.45 goals per game. In the playoffs, the Rangers scored two short-handed goals and gave up three. The Lightning scored one and gave up two.
Like I mentioned before, goaltending will likely decide this series as both teams have a ton of talent, many star players, and are excellent on offense and defense. Both Shesterkin and Vasilevskiy are favourites to win the Vezina Trophy and also strong Hart Trophy candidates too. Shesterkin has been fantastic all year with a 36-13-4 record, where he posted a .935 save percentage and a 2.07 goals-against average, both marks are the best among goalies in the NHL. Against the Lightning, he dominated going 3-0 with a 1.30 GAA and a .958 save percentage. Those numbers make him the heavy favourite for the Vezina.
Vasilevskiy comes into the playoffs as the reigning Conn Smythe Trophy winner after leading the Lightning to back-to-back Stanley Cups. This season, he recorded a 39-18-5 record this year with a .916 save percentage and 2.46 goals-against average. In the playoffs, he’s 8-3 with a .932 save percentage and a 2.22 GAA. He also has a record of 15-0 and a goals-against-average of 1.31, a save percentage of .948, and five shutouts after a loss in the postseason. This undefeated run will be tested against New York. Vasilevskiy struggled against the Rangers in the regular season (0-2, 3.03 GAA, and a .875 SV%) but he is a different monster in the playoffs and will not struggle as he did in the regular season. The goalies are x-factors in the playoffs, whichever goalie is better, that team will win the series. Also, the team that can cause the most traffic in front and screen the opposing goalie will win this series, the better goalie will not be affected by this as much.
I believe the Lightning will win in six games. Igor Shesterkin is a phenomenal goalie and had a fantastic season, but Andrei Vasilevskiy is arguably better, especially in the playoffs where he has played so well for so many years.
The Rangers are an extremely resilient team. After winning 27 games in comeback fashion during the regular season, they’ve won 5 straight elimination games in these playoffs. They can play from behind and never give up. Despite this, the Lightning overall are the better team on both sides of the puck, can win in many ways (they can win high scoring games, low scoring defensive games, can hold onto leads, and can come back from leads) and have more playoff experience with their current core compared to the Rangers. The Lightning are also the better-coached team; Jon Cooper is more experienced than Gerrard Gallant. Yes, the Rangers have home-ice advantage, but so did Florida. The Rangers won’t get swept, but they won’t win the series.
If my predictions come true, it will be a Colorado Avalanche vs Tampa Bay Lightning Stanley Cup Finals. If that's the case, I believe the Avalanche will win in seven. The Avs are the only active team in the NHL to have never lost a Stanley Cup Finals. The Avs made the Cup Final only twice in 1996 and 2001 and won both times. They will keep the streak alive. Stanley Cup Final preview article to come following the conclusion of the conference finals. Stay tuned.
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