Adamo Marinelli
June 15, 2022
At last, the Stanley Cup Finals are here. The Tampa Bay Lightning are in the Stanley Cup Finals for the third season in a row after their 11th consecutive playoff series win dating back to 2020. They won four consecutive games in the Eastern Conference Finals against a super talented Rangers team after falling down 2-0 in the series.
Meanwhile, the Colorado Avalanche dominated the Edmonton Oilers in the Western Conference Finals, winning the series handily in a four-game sweep thanks to excellent performances from Nathan MacKinnon, Cale Makar, and Gabriel Landeskog among others.
The only thing standing in the Lightning’s way of becoming the first team to win three consecutive Stanley Cups since the New York Islanders won four in a row from 1980-84 is the Colorado Avalanche, who are in the Finals for a reason. They are a young, speedy, skilled, and resilient team that is built to win. The Lightning have the perfectly constructed team to cement their team in NHL dynasty conversations, but they still have a long way to go to reach the Islanders’ record of 19 consecutive series wins spanning five seasons from 1980-85 or the Montreal Canadiens’ record of five consecutive Stanley Cups from 1956-60. Regardless, if they win three straight championships, they will have cemented themselves as arguably the best team in the 2000s.
This series will see two heavyweight Stanley Cup contenders who have extremely talented rosters, are well-coached, and have depth at every position. The Lightning arguably have the better goaltender and the better head coach but both teams have a ton of speed and talent and have outstanding depth, talent, and creativity on offense and defense. The Avalanche are the best team the Lightning has played so far this postseason and the Lightning are the best team the Avalanche has played so far this postseason.
One storyline that has the potential to be a major factor in deciding who wins the series is that the Lightning have way more experience in the playoffs than the current Avalanche team, and if they get Brayden Point back - which is extremely likely in game one according to head coach Jon Cooper, they will be even more dangerous offensively, even if the Avalanche get starting goalie Darcy Kuemper back for game one, which appears to be the case.
However, the Avalanche have overcome their fair share of challenges this postseason, know how to win in the playoffs, and have been dominant for most of the postseason. They’ve only lost two games en route to the Finals, tied for the fewest in NHL history. The Avalanche have also won both their Stanley Cup Finals appearances in 1996 and 2001; they are the only team to have a 100 percent win rate in the Finals.
The regular-season series between two teams almost never carries significant weight in the postseason, especially in the Stanley Cup Finals. However, the Avalanche beat the Lightning both times in the regular season and both teams were pretty much at full strength for both matchups. Landeskog had three points in those two games, and MacKinnon had three points in one of the games. Goalie Darcy Kuemper won both games with a 2.40 goals-against average and a .929 save percentage. So the Avalanche have proved they can hold their own against the reigning back-to-back Stanley Cup Champions.
The Avalanche swept the Nashville Predators in the first round, got past the St. Louis Blues in the second round in six games, and swept the Oilers in the WCF without starting goalie Darcy Kuemper and Nazem Kadri for a significant portion of the series. They’ve played 14 games heading into the Finals.
The Lightning rallied to get past an explosive Toronto Maple Leafs’ offense in seven games, dominated their state rival Florida Panthers in a four-game sweep in round two before winning four straight to defeat a gritty Rangers’ team in six games in the ECF. They’ve played 17 games heading into the Finals.
The additional rest could prove helpful to the Avalanche, but they are going up against the Lightning, who’ve arguably been the best playoff team in the last decade.
The Avalanche will have had eight full days of rest from game four against the Oilers to the start of the Stanley Cup Finals. The Lightning had seven full days of rest from the end of round two to the start of round three. They lost the first two games to the Rangers but rallied to win the next four because of their depth, skill, resiliency, and their extensive playoff experience.
The Avalanche have depth, loads of talent, and are without a doubt a resilient group. But if they fall down 0-2 against the Lighting, it’ll be difficult to see them coming back to win four of the next 5 games, especially when playing against Andrei Vasilevskiy, one of the best goalies in the NHL and an unbeatable force in the playoffs, especially after a loss.
The Lightning and Avalanche have both been excellent defensively during the postseason. The Lightning allowed only 2.41 goals per game, the second-fewest and the Avalanche allowed 2.86 goals per game, the third-fewest. The Avalanche were the best team in the playoffs at creating turnovers in the neutral zone, forcing opposing offenses to the outside, and limiting dangerous scoring chances - they allowed the fewest shots against per game at 28.21. The Lightning was not quite as good in that category, allowing 31.94 shots per game, but made up for it with their stellar goaltending, offensive capability, and special teams' play.
The Lightning killed 47 of 57 penalties in the postseason, their penalty kill operated at an 82.46 percent efficiency, mainly because of their phenomenal defense led by Victor Hedman but also because of goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy, who is great in the regular season and then even better in the playoffs. The Avalanche surrendered only nine powerplay goals but killed only 28 of 37 penalties, meaning their penalty kill operated at a 75.68 percent efficiency.
Even though the Lightning have a better penalty kill, it’s the Avalanche’s powerplay unit that ranks superior. The Avalanche have scored 14 powerplay goals on 45 attempts, their unit is clicking at a 31.11 percent efficiency, 2nd best in the playoffs only to the Rangers, who converted on 32.14 percent of their powerplays. The Lightning has scored 14 times on 62 powerplay attempts, their unit operated at a 22.58 efficiency.
On offense, the Avalanche were the best of any team all throughout the postseason. They scored 4.64 goals per game, 0.5 goals per game better than the next best team, the Penguins, who scored 4.14 goals per game. They also recorded 40.71 shots per game, second-best only behind the Penguins who recorded a whopping 44.3 shots per game.
The Avalanche also had a goals-for percentage of 60.81 percent, the best in the NHL playoffs (which is taking a team’s goals for and dividing it by their goals for + their goals against), the second best-expected goals-for percentage at 57.73 percent, and had the second-best Corsi-for percentage at 57.72 percent. The Avalanche top the playoffs in basic and advanced NHL statistics.
The Lightning had the third-best goals-for percentage at 53.85 percent, the ninth-best Corsi-for percentage at 50.33 percent, and the fifth best-expected goals-for percentage at 54.01 percent. They had the eighth-most goals per game with 3.06 and the seventh-most shots per game at 32.47 percent.
Andrei Vasilevskiy has once again been phenomenal in the postseason and is the backbone of his team’s trip to the finals. He is 12-5 in these playoffs, only allowing 39 goals and recording a save percentage of .928 percent and a goals-against-average of 2.27 in 17 playoff games. He is also 17-1 after a loss in the playoffs dating back to 2020.
Darcy Kuemper has been good during the playoffs, but not as good as Andrei Vasilevskiy has been. He also hasn’t played as many games as Vasilevskiy. Kuemper has a 6-2 record in the playoffs after playing 10 games and he has a save percentage of .897 and a goals-against-average of 2.65. Backup goalie Pavel Francouz started four games in the playoffs, played in six, and has a record of 6-0. He has a save percentage of .906 and a goals-against-average of 2.86. Francouz has been great in Kuemper’s absence but Kuemper has been good too and he will start in game one of the Stanley Cup Finals.
Avalanche coach Jared Bednar has done extremely well to take the Avalanche on a glorious rebuild. He joined the team after their worst season in franchise history in 2016/17 when the team recorded just 48 points in 82 games (22-56-4). He was partially responsible for building their current core along with general manager Joe Sakic including drafting all-star offensive defenseman Cale Makar and trading away Matt Duchene to acquire Sam Girard and a draft pick that turned into defencemen Bowen Byram.
Over the next few years, Devon Toews - who blossomed into a skilled team Canada defenseman - was acquired for a 2021 and 2022 second-round pick, and Kadri - who has had the best season and playoffs of his career this year - was brought in exchange for Alex Kerfoot and Tyson Barrie. Add that to their current core of MacKinnon and Landeskog among others, this team quickly turned into a contender and has done better and better each season. Thus season, under Bednar, they finally made it to the Western Conference Finals and are now in the Stanley Cup Finals.
Despite Bednar’s excellent coaching tenure with the Avalanche, bringing them from an irrelevant, struggling team to a Stanley Cup contender after constructing a phenomenal roster, Lightning bench-boss Jon Cooper is a better coach, has won more in the regular season and playoffs with his team, is a bit better schematically and has more playoff experience than Bednar - including coaching in three Stanley Cup Finals before this one, his fourth appearance as a head coach.
Both teams have a lot on the line. For the Lightning, they have the chance to cement themselves as the best team since 2000 and to win three consecutive Stanley Cups for the first time since the 1980s. If the Lightning win this title, they will likely be regarded as a better team than the Chicago Blackhawks and Detroit Redwings who both won three Stanley Cups in a six-year period over the last two and a half decades and will be held in the same conversation as Gretzky’s Oilers, the 1980-84 Islanders and the 1956-60 Canadiens.
The only other team (excluding the 2020 and 2021 Lightning) to win back-to-back championships was the 2016 and 2017 Pittsburgh Penguins. They would be considered a dynasty not just in hockey, but in all North American Sports considering the last team to win three trophies in a row is the NBA’s Los Angeles Lakers from 2001 to 2003. In an age of a salary cap and a flat cap, a three-peat is sensational. The players have been great and Jon Cooper and GM Julien Brisebois have done a fantastic job constructing this roster.
For the Avalanche, despite their extremely young and talented roster, they are in a win-now mode. After this season, Nathan MacKinnon will only have one more year left on his contract before he becomes a free agent and demands max money, and rightfully so. Kuemper and Kadri are unrestricted free agents this summer. It might not be their last chance at a Cup, because even without MacKinnon, Kuemper, and Kadri, they still have a loaded roster with guys like Landeskog, Makar, Mikko Rantanen among others, a great coach, and a fantastic general manager who is excellent at building teams and managing assets, but they should do all in their power to win now. If they do, there’s a lot less pressure going forward.
Let’s take a look at x-factors for both teams. Obviously, the team that gets the better goaltending and special teams will have a huge advantage.
But for the Avalanche, MacKinnon is the x-factor because a stellar series from him will be extremely helpful for their chances to win. He has 18 points in the playoffs and leads the team with 11 goals in 23 games. Five of those goals came on the powerplay, which will need to be excellent to beat the Lightning. His speed, strength, shot and playmaking make him a threat and his ability to score in bunches (he has two hattricks this postseason) is also a huge benefit.
For the Lightning, how well Point can play after missing over two full series is a key question. If he is 100 percent, that is a huge advantage, if he is not, will he become a liability? Also, Nikita Kucherov and if he can remain a force for the Lightning is an x-factor. He leads the Lightning with 23 points (6 goals, 17 assists) in 23 playoff games and is a force on both sides of the puck. He is 11 points away from his record of 34 in the 2020 playoffs.
Now, who will win the Cup? The Avalanche and Lightning are both incredible teams, with a lot of talent, depth, and great coaching. As much as I want the Avalanche to win, I believe the Lightning will win their third consecutive Stanley Cup. Both teams are phenomenal on offense and defense, but the Lightning have the better coach, the better goalie, and more playoff experience than the Avalanche. The Avalanche are also facing injuries to Kadri and Andrew Cogliano, both players are out day-to-day and may not return for any of the series. Samuel Girard is also out with an injury, but he is for sure out for the remainder of the playoffs after breaking his sternum after he took a nasty hit from St. Louis Blues' forward Ivan Barbashev in round two. All three of those guys are important depth players who’ve been good all postseason and critical to the Avs' success, so to be without potentially all three of them for the entire series is difficult. MacKinnon, Landeskog, Makar, and Kuemper will make it close, but a shutout on the road in game seven from Vasilevskiy secures Tampa the win. I hope I’m wrong, but this is what I see right now. Watch game one of the Finals tonight to find out what happens.
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