By: Adamo Marinelli
July 9th, 2020
As the NBA’s return to play is approaching even nearer, it is time to predict which two teams will play in the Finals and which team will ultimately be crowned as world champions.
Who are the contenders?:
Naturally, there are some teams like the Milwaukee Bucks, Toronto Raptors, LA Clippers, and LA Lakers that are true contenders to win the championship.
Next on the ladder are potential contenders, like the Boston Celtics, Philadelphia 76ers, Houston Rockets, and Denver Nuggets.
Finally, you have dark-horse teams that could win if everything goes right, like the Miami Heat, Oklahoma City Thunder, and even the Dallas Mavericks.
However, the teams that I believe will be going to the Finals are the Boston Celtics and the Los Angeles Clippers. Here’s why.
Western Conference:
The Western Conference has a plethora of elite teams. There is a lot of hype surrounding the Lakers especially with LeBron James and Anthony Davis. This is also a special year for the Lakers after Kobe Bryant’s tragic passing.
The Houston Rockets have a pair of superstars and are running out of time to win a championship with their current core. The Denver Nuggets are a young team full of superstars who can play defense, shoot the ball from a distance and drive to the hoop.
However, the Los Angeles Clippers are the team to beat in the Western Conference. They have arguably more depth and are the more complete team than their Los Angeles counterparts. They have more depth on the offensive and defensive side of the ball. They have two of the best players in the NBA in Kawhi Leonard and Paul George. In addition, they have Patrick Beverly, one of the best defenders in the NBA and also a point guard who can run the offense efficiently and get the ball to anyone on the court.
Statistically speaking, they ranked 4th in the NBA with 116.2 points per game and 3rd in offensive rating, with 113.6. They did all of this despite having Kawhi Leonard only play 51 games (which ranks 5th on the team) and Paul George only played 42 (which ranks 11th on the team). This proves for sure that the Clippers are very well-rounded.
Their offense does get a huge boost because they excel in a few areas, but their offense also doesn’t have any weak spots either. They have two big strengths that have allowed them to be a top-5 offense. Their team rebounding ability and their ability to get to the free-throw line. The Clippers were able to average 11 offensive rebounds per game and 48 rebounds per game, which cracks the top 5 for both categories. The Clippers attempted the most free throws in the entire NBA with 26.2 attempts per game and shot 79% from the line, which was good enough for 8th best in the league.
However, with two elite players like Leonard and George and an amazing supporting cast with guys like Pat Beverly, Lou Williams, Montrezl Harrell, JaMychal Green, Marcus Morris, and Landry Shamet among others, it is pretty clear that this team is able to score points, from anywhere on the court. Kawhi Leonard is a game-changer, being able to score points at ease driving to the rim, shooting from mid-range and he has even perfected his three-point game as well. Defensively, he is a two time defensive player of the year and his stats prove that he is one of the best defenders in the league along with Patrick Beverly and others. Paul George and Pat Beverly are elite too, great defenders, great playmakers, and can score too.
On defense, they were productive as ever. Clippers’ head coach Doc Rivers puts a huge emphasis on being physical defensively, his roster is full of talented defenders like Beverly and Leonard, and they put their talents on display with their high level of production on defense. They allowed a higher than normal 109.7 points per game, which was 13th best in the league, but they were 5th in the NBA with an excellent defensive rating of 107.2.
The Clippers didn’t exactly excel when it came to steals and blocks, sitting in the bottom half of the league in both of those categories. They recorded only 7 steals and 5 blocks per game. However, the Clippers more than made up for it by preventing high percentage shots. The Clippers excelled at contesting shots and limiting opponents’ open looks. They limited opposing teams to shoot only 43.6% from the field and 34% from deep which were both top-3 marks in the entire league. On top of that, they did a good job preventing ball movement, allowing only 23 assists per game, 8th best in the league. Minimizing passes allows the defense to know where the ball is at all times and will prevent open looks. This is an excellent thing to excel at come playoff time.
However, the biggest weakness for the Clippers defensively is allowing their opponents to take too many free throws (their opponents averaged 25 a game) and too many offensive rebounds (on average their opponents would get 11 each game). Thankfully, the opposition only shot 76% from the line and the Clippers were good at getting their own offensive rebounds which offsets them giving so many rebounds up.
Not to mention, Doc Rivers is one of the best coaches in the NBA along with Nick Nurse, Brad Stevens, Gregg Popovich, Erik Spoelstra, and Mike Budenholzer. His defensive schemes wreak havoc on opposing offenses and he likes to play a fast-paced game which allows his team to get up and down the court quickly to catch defenses off-guard and to force turnovers. He’s also willing to get a few technical fouls to stick up for his players. With his star-studded roster, he will help the Clippers be championship contenders for years to come.
Finally, here is the real kicker on why the Clippers are championship contenders. They have only played 12 games this season with a fully healthy roster. In those games, they are 11-1. They’ve beaten the Lakers, Nuggets, Rockets, Heat, 76ers, Thunder, Grizzlies, Spurs, Suns, Warriors, and Timberwolves. Their only loss came to the Lakers. Most of these opponents are formidable - this means the Clippers can face any challenge in the playoffs, even the best of the competition in the Western conference such as the Rockets, Nuggets, and their Los Angeles rivals in the Lakers, who they beat in 2 of 3 head-to-head matchups this season.
I can see the Clippers beating the Mavericks in 5 or 6 games, as the Mavs are still a really young team that is developing, I can see them beating the Nuggets - another skilled team in the Western conference with several young, talented players - in 6 or 7 games, and I can see them beating the Lakers in a tight 7 game series in the West Final. The Clippers will get a slight edge just like they did in the regular season.
Eastern Conference:
There are many talented teams in the Eastern Conference as well. Teams like the Milwaukee Bucks and the Toronto Raptors are elite contenders, the Boston Celtics, and Philadelphia 76ers are contenders and the Miami Heat are a dark-horse contender.
The Bucks are a very talented team, there is no doubt about that. With Giannis Antetokounmpo, Khris Middleton, Brook Lopez, Eric Bledsoe among many others, it’s not a surprise that the Bucks have clinched the NBA’s best record for two years in a row.
The Raptors are arguably the most resilient team in the league. The defending champions have faced injury after injury this season and are in the top-10 list of man-games missed due to injury and yet Nick Nurse has adapted time and time again and has used his coaching brilliance along with the Raptors’ depth to help the Raptors finish 2nd in the East.
However, I believe the Celtics are the team to beat in the East this season. They have a young team bursting with talent on the offensive and defensive side of the ball. They have Jayson Tatum, and Jaylen Brown, two young but skilled players rising to superstardom and Gordon Hayward, Kemba Walker, Enes Kanter, and Marcus Smart, four veterans that will continue to make the team excel. On top of that, they have many intriguing prospects in the G-League, including Tacko Fall.
On offense, the Celtics are not an extremely high volume production team, however, they continue to play an efficient and creative style of basketball. The Celtics are tied with the Nuggets with the 5th best record in the league, ranked 11th in points per game but saw immense success due to an impressive 112.9 offensive rating, 5th best in the NBA. They weren’t the most fast-paced team but were consistently able to impose their will on their opposition and make their lives difficult.
The Celtics are very effective in a few categories which really helps their offense succeed. They rank in the top 10 in offensive rebounds and rebounds in general which is huge for getting 2nd chance points and preventing their opponents’ from getting 2nd chance points. They also play a mistake-free brand of basketball, which is head coach Brad Stevens’ style. This means they don’t turn the ball over. They limited turnovers to just below 14 a game, on average, which is good for 7th in the NBA.
The Celtics are in the middle of the pack when it comes to shooting percentages and assists (sharing the basketball). However, the combination of getting a lot of offensive rebounds and minimizing turnovers allows them to still score a lot of points even if they are not the most efficient shooting team.
The Celtics ranked 18th in the NBA in field goal percentage shooting 46% from the field. They were an extremely isolation oriented team with 6.8% of their possessions being isolation sets. This isolation offense slowed down ball movement, which is why they rank bottom 6 in the league with only 22.8 assists per game. However, they made up for lack of passing with their consistent scoring ability from mid-range and their decent three-point shooting, hitting just over 36% from three. A lot of their offense came from their 4 superstars in Jayson Tatum, Jaylon Brown, Kemba Walker, and Gordon Hayward. However, Marcus Smart had a career-high 13.5 points per game while shooting 35% and their two bigs Daniel Theis and Enes Kanter helped with rebounds and put up a respectable amount of points per game. This offense is one small step away from being elite.
On defense, is where the Celtics really excel. And as they say, defense wins championships. The Celtics were arguably one of the best defensive teams in the NBA this season. They combined elite defensive athletes with great team defense schemes which allowed them to often neutralize game plans of other teams.
The Celtics’ elite defense is evident when watching them play. Their greatness is seen in every category. They ranked 4th in defensive rating, 2nd in opponents’ points per game, 2nd in opponents’ assists, 4th in opponents’ field-goal percentage, and 3rd in opponents’ 3 point field goal percentage. As if this wasn’t impressive already, they limited opposing teams to 106.8 points per game, 22 assists per game, 44% from the field, and 34% from deep.
These statistics prove how dominant their defense was in every metric this year. On top of limiting the opposition’s scoring ability, they were also able to force turnovers and effect shots. They recorded over 8 steals per game, 5.6 blocks per game, and forced their opponents to commit just over 15 turnovers per game. These are all top 10 numbers.
The Celtics’ defense was indicative of wonderful teamwork, chemistry, and schemes but also because of their elite defensive players. The Celtics had four players rank in the top-35 players for defensive win shares. Tatum was 9th, Smart was 18th, Hayward was 20th and Brown was 33rd.
Finally, let’s not forget, Brad Stevens is one of the best coaches in the NBA along with Nick Nurse, Doc Rivers, Gregg Popovich, Erik Spoelstra, and Mike Budenholzer. His defense was one of the best in the NBA and he gives his players more chances to get open looks with his isolation offense. It allows for more points to be scored. He has spent 7 seasons in Boston and made the playoffs 5 times, only having two losing seasons. With the emergence of Tatum and Brown, he has proven he can win and develop players at the same time. He’ll help the Celtics contend for years to come.
I can see the Celtics beating the 76ers in 6 or 7 games, beating the Heat in 5 or 6 games and beating either the Bucks or Raptors in a tightly contested 6 or 7 games in the East Final.
Who will win?:
If the 2020 NBA Finals does end up being between the Clippers and Celtics, then we know it will be a close series. It will be a matchup between two of the best defensive teams in the league. The Clippers are a well-rounded team on both sides of the ball with two elite super-stars in Kawhi Leonard and Paul George to help carry the load. The Celtics are a very well rounded team on both sides of the ball. They don’t necessarily have a top-5 player in the league, but they are one of the best defensive teams in the league and can frustrate opposing defenses with their offense, particularly their shooting abilities.
This series is not going to end before 6 games. The most likely scenario is the series goes 7 games. This series would go to whoever has the home-court advantage. That would be the Clippers, who finished 1 game better than the Celtics in the regular season. However, in the bubble, there will be no home-court advantage. I predict, however, that the Clippers will beat the Celtics in 7 games due to their super-star presence. The Celtics are a great team but don’t have a ‘Kawhi’ type player. That will be the difference.
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