NHL 2020 Playoff Predictions

By: Adamo Marinelli

July 20th, 2020

     As we inch closer to the return of playoff hockey, it is time to analyze every series and make a prediction of who will be crowned 2020 Stanley Cup Champions. 

    The hub cities for the NHL playoffs are Edmonton and Toronto. Allegedly, Edmonton will host the play-in round and the next two rounds. Toronto will host the Conference and Stanley Cup Finals. The play-in round is best of 5 series, all four other rounds are best of 7 series. 

     There are a lot of talented teams in the hunt for the Stanley Cup this year, so these playoffs will be very entertaining. 

Play-in round: 

Montreal vs Pittsburgh: The Penguins are the better team on paper, offensively and defensively, and had a much better record this season than the Canadiens. But, in a best-of-5 series, all it takes is a goalie to stand on his head for three games to turn the series around. Carey Price has shown he can do this. The Canadiens’ roster does have some talent on both sides of the puck as well. However, I see the Penguins moving on in 4 games. 

New York vs Carolina: In a tight metropolitan division, the fourth-place Hurricanes are only 2 points ahead of the 7th seed Rangers. Both teams are talented, despite this, the Hurricanes have more youth on their roster and with their dominant trade deadline, improving their depth offensively and defensively, I see the Hurricanes winning in 5 games.

Florida vs New York: In 2016, the Islanders beat the Panthers in the playoffs, advancing to the 2nd round for the first time in 23 years. The Islanders finished with 2 more points than the Panthers which got them ‘home-ice advantage’ despite being the lower seed in the tougher Metro division. The Isles swept the season series 3-0 and I expect a similar playoff result, the Isles will win in 4 games.

Columbus vs Toronto: The Maple Leafs always do well in the regular season despite having a weaker defense as their strong offense - which is 2nd in the league in goals with 237 - makes up for it. In the playoffs, however, their lack of defense haunts them and they lose. The Blue Jackets aren’t an offensive arsenal like Boston or Tampa, but they do have crafty veterans that can score. I see the Blue Jackets winning in 5 games as the Leafs’ offense will keep them alive.

Chicago vs Edmonton: The Oilers were able to do enough offensively this year to finish 2nd in the Pacific division. Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaital recorded 97 and 110 points and they are only two of the Oilers’ offensive weapons. On defense, they are middle of the pack but their strong offense should be enough to beat the Blackhawks who had a rough season, just sneaking their way into the playoffs finishing 7th in the Central. Edmonton wins in four. 

Winnipeg vs Calgary: The Flames and Jets both had pretty good seasons, finishing with 80 and 79 points respectively. The Flames have the ‘home-ice advantage’ due to better division seeding. The Flames and Jets are pretty similar teams offensively and defensively, the Jets have a slight edge in goals, goals against and shots. Both teams have a handful of very skilled players on their roster and both are capable of winning this series. I believe the Jets will win in 5 games. 

Arizona vs Nashville:  The Coyotes and Predators have both had decent seasons finishing 5th in their respective division, however, the Predators finished with 2 more wins. The Predators were the better team offensively, scoring more goals, and spending more time in the offensive zone generating shots and chances. The Coyotes have a better defense allowing only 183 goals this year, 3rd best in the league, and limiting time spent in their own zone. Defense wins championships, the Coyotes will win in 5.

Minnesota vs Vancouver: The Wild and Canucks both had similar records this season, but the Canucks get the ‘home-ice advantage’ due to finishing higher in a weaker Pacific division. Both teams are pretty good offensively, the Wild scored 218 goals, the Canucks scored 224 and both teams are middle of the pack defensively, allowing 217 and 214 goals respectively. The Wild lead the season series 2-1 but the youth on the Canucks’ roster helps me see them winning in 4.

Before we get into the round of 16, I know the top 4 teams in each conference are playing round-robin games to determine the seeding. However, for the sake of this article being done before the games start, I will use the seeding from when the season paused on March 12th.

Round of 16:

Columbus (9) vs Boston (1): The Blue Jackets are a solid team on offense and on defense, but there is a reason that the Bruins won the President’s trophy this season. They have so much depth on both sides of the puck and their line consisting of David Pastrnak, Patrice Bergeron, and Brad Marchand is tough to stop for a lot of defenses. Not to mention, the Bruins lead the league in fewest goals against with only 167. The Blue Jackets are 6th worst in the league in scoring with only 180 goals. I have the Bruins winning in 5 games.

New York Islanders (7) vs Tampa Bay (2): The Islanders are a solid team and they posted another excellent record under HC Barry Trotz. They were on pace for their 2nd straight 100 point season. The Lightning are the best offensive team in the league, scoring 243 goals this season. The Islanders are one of the better teams defensively allowing only 190 goals, the 5th fewest in the league but they rank 24th in goals scored. You need to score to keep up with an offensive firehouse. The defense won’t hold forever. Tampa Bay will win in 6 games.

Carolina (6) vs Washington (3): The Hurricanes improved their roster vastly this trade deadline, acquiring Vincent Trocheck to strengthen their forward depth and give them someone who can win faceoffs and puck battles and acquiring Sam Vatanen and Brady Skjei, two stellar defensemen. The Capitals had another stellar year winning their division and they’re as productive on offense as ever with Alex Ovechkin, who is competing for the Maurice Richard trophy. They can score at ease, have depth on defense and Holtby has been good in net. But, the Hurricanes beat the Capitals last year in the playoffs. They’ll do it in 7 games this year. 

Pittsburgh (5) vs Philadelphia (4): Both the Penguins and Flyers have played great hockey this season; the Flyers finished only 3 points above their state rivals. The Penguins led by Crosby and Malkin rank 13th in goals scored and 11th in goals-against indicating depth and talent on both sides of the puck. Matt Murray and Tristan Jarry have been very reliable in net. The Flyers rank in the top 10 in the league in goals for and goals against, are strong defensively, and are disciplined ranking 9th fewest in penalty minutes. This is a tight series, I got Flyers in 7 games.

Winnipeg (9) vs St. Louis (1): The Blues have been playing some impressive hockey this year, which is why they won the western conference. The defending champions are looking for a repeat and are poised to do it. The Jets are a solid team offensively and defensively with some talented youth around Patrick Laine, however, the Blues are a top 10 defensive team in the league, allowing only 190 goals, 5th best, they do a great job preventing shots and are not in their own zone very often. They have some offensive weapons like Vladimir Tarasenko, Ryan O’Reilly and Jaden Schwartz who can score and create chances and Jordan Binnington is posting another great season. The Blues will win in 5 games.

Vancouver (7) vs Colorado (2): The Canucks are able to score a lot of goals - they have 224, 9th best in the league - despite being in the bottom 10 in shots generated due to their excellent playmaking skills, and excelling at finding the open man. They are middle of the league defensively allowing the 16th fewest goals but give up a lot of chances. They are physical and don’t make it easy for their opponents. The Avalanche are one of the best offensive teams in the league, thanks to their talented roster, scoring 236 goals, which is 3rd best in the NHL, and also scoring the most goals in the 1st and 2nd period. They’re top 10 in shots on goal and are good defensively allowing the 5th fewest goals against. The Canucks won’t be able to keep up. The Avalanche will win in 6.

Arizona (11) vs Vegas (3): The Coyotes are more of a defense-oriented team, ranking 22nd in the league with only 190 goals. However, they have been stout defensively, limiting the opponents’ time in their zone with their physicality, with their ability to break up passes and their counterattack. However, the Golden Knights have one of the best rosters in the league and are built to compete for a Stanley Cup now. With loads of talent on offense and defense such as Max Pacioretty, Marl Stone, Jonathan Marchessault, Alec Martinez, Shea Theodore, and William Karlsson and excellent goalie play from Fleury, the Knights will not lose. Knights in 5.

Edmonton (5) vs Dallas (4): The Oilers and Stars are both similar teams. They both have superstars on their roster, Connor McDavid, and Leon Draisaitl leading the way in Edmonton; Jamie Benn and Tyler Seguin leading the way in Dallas. The Oilers had the advantage in offensive production, McDavid and Draisatl combined for 207 points; Benn and Seguin combined for only 89 points. However, the Stars had the edge defensively allowing fewer goals and fewer shots on goal. It is a pretty even series, it just depends on who wins the first game and carries the momentum for the rest of the series. I believe Edmonton will win in 7.

Conference Semi-Finals: 

Philadelphia (4) vs Boston (1): The Flyers are a well-built team and have a roster full of talent with players like Claude Giroux, Travis Konecny, Jakub Voracek, and Justin Braun among others. They finished only behind Washington in their division and tied the Bruins for 7th best in the league with 227 goals scored, despite registering 81 fewer shots on goal than the Bruins. Even though the Bruins led the league in fewest goals against with 167 - the Flyers were 8th with 191 - the Flyers led the league in fewest shots on goal allowed by opponents. Both teams have lots of talent on their roster, the Flyers can score as much as Boston and both teams are very good defensively, limiting scoring. This will be a tight series, but I have Boston in 7 games.

Washington (3) vs Tampa Bay (2): Last season, the Lightning led the league with 62 wins and finished with 128 points. They were Stanley Cup favourites before proceeding to get swept by the Columbus Blue Jackets, the 2nd wild card team. The Lightning are a talented team with a well-balanced roster and lead the league in goals scored with 243. They are a top 10 defensive team in the league as well, with their physicality, and their ability to win puck battles and limit shots and attacking time. However, the Capitals also have a talented roster. The Capitals tied for 2nd in the league by scoring 236 goals. They also led the league, scoring 95 in the 3rd period indicating they can come back from a deficit or bury their opponents easily. Their defense and goaltending have also been in the top half of the league all year. I have the Capitals in 6. 

Edmonton (5) vs St. Louis (1): The Edmonton Oilers are a well-balanced team, with the best power-play unit in the league, clicking at a 29.5% efficiency, well ahead of Boston’s powerplay which ranked 2nd at 25.2%. This unit led by McDavid and Draisatl are even slightly better than the most efficient Gretzky era power play, which clicked at 29.3%. They are top 10 in the league in scoring with 223 goals and have one of the best superstar duos in the league. However, the Blues are a great defensive team, allowing only 190 goals, 5th fewest in the league, and do a great job limiting opponents’ time in their zone with their ability to break up a play. However, the Blues’ penalty kill is not as strong as it was in their Stanley Cup run last season. It ranks 18th in the league, only killing 79.7% of their penalties. This is worrisome against a team like the Oilers. For this reason, I believe the Oilers will move on in 7 games. 

Vegas (3) vs Colorado (2): The Avalanche are one of the best teams in the league this season. They are tied for 2nd in goals scored with the Capitals with 236; they also led the league in first and second-period goals with 73 and 95 respectively. They are also one of the best defensive teams in the league allowing 190 goals, the 5th fewest in the NHL. They are physical, can win puck battles, and are good in the faceoff dot. The Avalanche had one of the best penalty-killing units in the league as well, ranking 4th overall killing 83.3% of their penalties. Their powerplay has been a bit underwhelming despite their incredible ability to score with their stacked roster. They rank 19th in the league scoring 41 times in 241 chances. The Golden Knights are a very good team with a talented roster of crafty veterans who have plenty of playoff experience, can score goals, defend their zone. They even have a top-10 powerplay unit and are tied for 2nd in the league for fewest short-handed goals allowed with 3. However, I have the Avalanche in 6.

Conference Finals: 

Washington (3) vs Boston (1): A series between these two star-studded teams will be a very exciting one. Both teams have a large handful of very talented players and both have depth on offense and defense. For the Bruins, it is their ‘production line’ consisting of David Pastrnak, Patrice Bergeron, and Brad Marchand that is often the killer for most defenses. This line is especially dangerous on the powerplay, their special teams unit is ranked 2nd in the league. They are good defensively as well, allowing only 165 goals the fewest in the league. The Capitals can score and are tied for 2nd in the league with 236 goals, meaning, in theory, they can keep up with Boston offensively, but will they be able to get the best of Boston’s defense? I don’t think they can. Washington ranks middle of the pack defensively and will only withstand Boston’s offense for so long. I have the Bruins winning in 6 games.

Edmonton (5) vs Colorado (2): This series would be extremely entertaining to watch. The Oilers are a well-balanced team, with depth on both sides of the puck, however, all eyes will be on Oilers’ superstars Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, to see if their regular-season production can continue into the playoffs despite limited playoff experience for the majority of the players on the Oilers roster. Despite finishing near the bottom of the league in shots on goal, the Oilers are a fast team and finished 11th in goals. Their special teams unit is consistent, finishing 14th on the powerplay and penalty kill. They finished 20th in goals against with 215, however, and opposing teams do spend a lot of time in their zone. For an offensive juggernaut like the Avalanche, who tied with the Capitals for 2nd in scoring with 236 goals and who start strong leading the league in 1st and 2nd-period goals, the Oilers will need to do a lot of game planning to adjust their defensive schemes or else they will get buried. I think the Avalanche will win in 7.

Stanley Cup Finals: 

Colorado (2) vs Boston (1): When it is all said and done, Boston will make consecutive Finals appearances and the Avalanche will play in their first Stanley Cup Finals series since 2001 and attempt to have a perfect 3-0 record in the Finals. As I have said many times already throughout this piece, both the Avalanche and Bruins are very skilled teams. This is why they finished 2nd and 1st in their respective conferences. Both teams have several superstars on their roster, they have excellent depth on offense and defense, and both teams have solid goaltenders. Tukka Rask had an excellent season in Boston and is a Vezina Trophy candidate. Philip Grubauer isn’t as great as Rask, however, he had a good year winning 18 games, and posting a save percentage of .916% and a goals against average of 2.63. Both teams also have a lot of playoff experience, but the Bruins have more than the Avalanche. Both teams are good on special teams and both teams are well-coached. Bruins’ head coach Bruce Cassidy - based on record and wins - has a slight advantage over Jared Bednar, but both coaches are former hockey players and are brilliant hockey minds. One could argue that Cassidy has a slightly better roster to get him more wins, but it’s the coach’s job to build a roster that has chemistry. This series could really go either way, however, I believe the Bruins will win their 7th Stanley Cup in 7 games with their slight edge in goaltending and coaching. 

Conclusion: 

     There are a lot of talented teams in both conferences that have a chance to win the Stanley Cup this year. With more teams in the playoffs, the race for the Stanley Cup will be that much more exciting.