By: Adamo Marinelli
June 2nd, 2020
The NBA is likely to continue its season on July 31st using either a 16 team playoff format or a 20 team World Cup-style group stage, with the group winners advancing to an 8 team bracket.
This might mean that the NBA draft gets pushed back, but it will still happen at some point. So in this article, I will analyze the top 10 prospects in this year’s draft and attempt to place them on the team they fit with the most. This season, teams will be picking based on need more than just overall talent.
Prospect #1: Lamelo Ball, Illawarra Hawks. PG, 6’6”, 180lbs.
He is a naturally gifted point guard with great court vision, he can read through defenses and he is a spectacular passer which allows him to run the offense smoothly, setting up teammates with open shot attempts. He has a high basketball IQ, he knows where his teammates are at all times and can anticipate where they are going, meaning he’ll excel during pick-and-roll situations. He is excellent in transition and has a well-built frame to be a point guard.
However, sometimes he will attempt to make the highlight reel play instead of the smart play which can lead to turnovers. His shot selection can be a little bit inconsistent. He has a low release point on his jumper and struggles from beyond the arc. If he wants to succeed in the NBA, he will need to improve the mechanics of his shot. He also needs to improve his three-point shooting ability immensely to be effective in half-court play so defenders will respect his shot, guard him, which leaves teammates open. His defense is shaky but with his frame, he has the potential to be a talented defender.
Pro comparison: A bigger Trae Young
Lamelo Ball would fit nicely with the Cleveland Cavaliers, who have the 2nd overall pick. It’s difficult to assess the Cavaliers’ biggest need because they need a franchise rebrand, a brand new team with a blue-chip prospect being their next franchise player. Lamelo Ball is a brilliant offensive mind with a great passing and playmaking ability. His shooting can use some work, but it’s nothing he can’t fix. He will fit well with Darius Garland and Collin Sexton.
Prospect #2: Killian Hayes, Ratiopharm Ulm. PG, 6’5”, 192lbs.
Hayes possesses great court vision and has excellent passing skills to match it. He can make a pass to anywhere on the floor. He is crafty with the ball in his hands and is able to create offensive chances for him and his teammates off the dribble. His shooting is only improving and he is developing a James Harden like step-back that is almost impossible to defend. He has a good frame for his position, a smooth, fluid release from in the lane, on floaters, and from the line. He has a high IQ making it likely he will thrive in a modern pick-and-role NBA.
However, in terms of his speed, he is an average athlete and doesn’t show the necessary burst to blow by defenders with and without the ball. He is a below-average three-point shooter,
his time playing in the Euro Cup has improved his shot, but a larger sample size indicates that it is something he needs to practice. Finally, he relies too heavily on his left hand when dribbling, passing, and finishing at the rim. Ambidexterity is a work in progress.
Pro comparison: Goran Dragic
Hayes would be an excellent fit for the New York Knicks, who have the 6th pick in this year’s draft, and are looking for a franchise point guard. With Ball gone, Hayes is the next best option. The Knicks rank in the bottom-3 in the league in assists per game, secondary assists, and points created by assists. Hayes’ excellent court vision and excellent ability to pass the ball to his teammates anywhere on the floor will prove helpful. His three-point shot will need to improve in order to maximize his potential as a playmaker and he needs to add a bit more to his frame.
Prospect #3: Onyeka Okongwu, USC. C, 6’9”, 245lbs.
Despite his big frame, he is quick and nimble with the ability to defend from the post to the perimeter. He is an innate scorer and finisher, particularly around the rim. He uses his body and size to get enough space in the post to score and even fares well against bigger defenders. His soft hands and incredible passing ability allows him to excel in tight spaces on the floor and in pick-and-roll situations. Finally, he is an incredible shot-blocker, knows how to leverage his body to affect shots.
However, the three-point shooting is not in his arsenal. His high free throw percentages and shooting touch could help his three-point game develop. He also needs to be a little bit more disciplined on defense. He fouled out 3 times in 28 games as a freshman; he is overeager to use his shot-blocking ability leading to many fouls. The timing of his blocks and discipline will need to be addressed. At 6’9”, 245lbs, he is slightly undersized for an NBA center, his 7’1” wingspan helps. Adding weight to his frames and his long, wiry arms should help him overcome his physical disadvantage.
Pro comparison: Bam Adebayo
He would fit well with the Golden State Warriors, who have the first overall pick in this year’s draft. They are one piece away from being championship contenders. The Warriors need a frontcourt upgrade, particularly at the center position. Okongwu is athletic, has great court vision, is an excellent passer, and is a great defender who can block shots with ease and is an excellent finisher around the rim. He will fit in well with Curry, Klay, and Green.
Prospect #4: Deni Avdija, Israel. SF, 6’9”, 215lbs.
He has an incredibly strong playmaking ability with a high basketball IQ, a great court vision, and good passing skills. He dribbles the ball well, makes smart, precise passes, which is a threat when on transition. He is crafty when finishing around the basket, is an excellent rebounder, and can score with either hand. He has a soft release on floaters, reverses, and on looks from point-blank range.
However, he is an average athlete with no real burst, but able to overcome physical limitations with smarts. He is more of a floor-spacer in theory than in practice. He shot just 33.6% from 3 last year and was a troublesome 52% from the free-throw line; an indicator that improvement as a distance shooter may be difficult. He is also not a major threat as a shot blocker or a ball stealer defensively. Lacks lateral movements.
Pro comparison: Danilo Galinari
The Wizards struggled this year with John Wall’s Achilles injury. Having him back, alongside Bradley Beal and a shooting forward like Deni Avdija would be paramount to the Wizards’ success next season. The Wizards need all the help they can get on offense and Avdija would be a nice selection with the 9th overall pick considering his ability to run the offense, set up plays and get the ball to his teammates, Beal and Wall, who are both prolific scorers.
Prospect #5: Anthony Edwards, Georgia. SG, 6’5”, 225lbs.
He is a very explosive athlete with an incredible vertical and broad jump. He is one of the youngest prospects in this year’s draft, got into basketball late but still has the potential to succeed in the NBA. He has excellent ball-handling skills, he has an incredible shot creation ability off the dribble, from deep and from mid-range. He has a good frame and strength given his youth and has the potential to grow into a reliable offensive initiator and a deadly scorer.
However, sometimes his shot selection is questionable, meaning he often settled for shots at Georgia, instead of passing the ball to his teammates. His voluminous scoring didn’t really impact winning in college for his mediocre Georgia team but can help his team win in the NBA. He has a touch-and-go defensive motor, needs to work more on his positioning when in man coverage and his footwork when switching onto another assignment.
Pro comparison: Zach Lavine
With the 5th overall pick in this year’s draft, it would make sense for the Detroit Pistons to select Anthony Edwards. Their biggest need would be a franchise guard. Edwards is one of the most athletic prospects in this draft with incredible ball-handling skills, an innate ability to create shots off the dribble, from mid-range and from beyond the arc, and has a big frame to win in the post on offense and on defense. His defensive positioning is mediocre, it can be improved.
Prospect #6: Obi Toppon, Dayton. PF, 6’9”, 220lbs.
He is a dynamic athlete with incredible vertical jumping ability. He can impact the game playing above the rim, he led college basketball in dunks last season. He is an efficient shooter, from inside the perimeter and outside too, shooting 41.7% from beyond the arc last season at Dayton. He is an underrated passer and playmaker from his position who is quickly able to read defenses, knows where all his teammates are, and make accurate passes when necessary.
However, he has limited mobility moving laterally will hinder his ability to defend on the perimeter and switch onto more mobile wings and forwards. He is an explosive leaper, but physically, he will have challenges matching up with bigger forwards in the post in the NBA. He is only an average rebounder given his big size at his position.
Pro comparison: Blake Griffin
The Pheonix Suns were able to improve their offense from 28th in 2018 to 16th in 2019 and they were able to improve their defensive efficiency from 29th in 2018 to 16th in 2019, thanks to the arrival of Ricky Rubio, Kelly Oubre Jr.’s breakout season, new coach Monty Williams and their star Devin Booker. With the 10th pick, the Suns should be looking for players with good character and who can win in this year’s draft, not fancy stat-lines. Obi Toppon jumps out to me as a player who’s intangible characteristics can help the Suns win. He is a dynamic athlete, with an incredible leap, and can impact the game on both sides above the rim with dunks and blocks. His 3 point percentage is also incredible and can help any team win.
Prospect #7: Isaac Okoro, Auburn. SF, 6’6”, 225lbs.
He is physically mature with a 6’6” base to complement his 225lb frame. He is a versatile defender who can switch up and down the roster and can use his frame to guard even the biggest offensive weapons. He can move laterally and use his jumping ability to block shots. He has a high basketball IQ, who excels as a team defender and makes winning plays. He is an underrated playmaker who has shown flashes of being able to create offense with his passing.
He is a player who excels most at shooting 3 pointers and playing aggressive defense. His three-point shot needs some work after only hitting 29% at Auburn. He is limited offensively as a playmaker and his lack of shiftiness doesn’t mend well with an initiating upside. He is very athletic, so with a bit of work on his shooting mechanics, he can improve his three-point shot and be a more dynamic playmaker if opposing defenders respect his shot which will leave his teammates open.
Pro comparison: a more athletic Justin Anderson
Okoro would fit in considerably well with the Minnesota Timberwolves, who have the 3rd pick in this year’s draft. The Timberwolves are building around Karl Anthony Towns and D’Angelo Russell, two offensive stars, but in 2019, they ranked 29th in three-point percentage and 18th in defensive efficiency. They are looking for a two-way forward who can be a disturber on defense and who can improve the offense. Okoro is arguably the best defender in the draft and even though his three-pointer needs some improvement, he is converting 60.2% of his two-pointers and consistently impacting games with his smart playmaking ability, his athleticism, and his D.
Prospect #8: James Wiseman, Memphis. C, 7’1”, 240lbs.
He has great size and length, with a reported 7’6” wingspan. He uses his length and awareness to protect the rim at all costs. He is a good lob finisher, can catch passes in a big radius, and is able to dunk the ball at ease and score frequently. He can effectively run pick-and-roll as a screen man at a high level. He can move fluidly and run the court.
However, despite his excellent finishing ability, his shooting efficiency outside of the paint is a real question mark, he is only a floor spacer in theory and he needs to extend his range and shoot from the outside consistently to meet his ceiling as a playmaker. He has a touch and go motor, dating back to high school days, only played three college games before leaving yo train for NBA draft. He struggles to move laterally and to defend in space.
Pro comparison: Chris Bosh
If the Hornets cannot get an elite guard such as Lamelo Ball or Anthony Edwards, they should focus on defense, either on the perimeter or in the interior. P.J Washington and Miles Bridges need some help to improve the team’s 24th ranked defensive efficiency. With the 8th overall pick, the Hornets should look for a rim-protector like Wiseman. Not only is he an efficient defender with a 7’6” wingspan, but he is an excellent finisher near the rim, dunking lob passes.
Prospect #9: Tyrese Haliburton, Iowa State. PG, 6’5”, 175lbs.
He is one of the most efficient guards as a scorer, playmaker and a facilitator. He has a deep shooting range that could translate to an NBA 3 point line seamlessly. He is a savvy player on both ends of the court, with a high IQ, and he is a very skilled passer who makes smart decisions and doesn’t beat himself up.
However, he has a skinny frame that needs real physical development. At only 175lbs, he will have trouble defending some of the bigger guards and forwards in the NBA. Also, though effective, his shooting release is a bit odd. He is incredibly effective in catch-and-release situations but he is a non-factor for shooting off the dribble.
Pro comparison: Lonzo Ball
The Chicago Bulls are in dire need of offensive efficiency. They ranked bottom 5 in offensive efficiency last season and they need someone who can make plays and score points. With the 7th pick in this year’s draft, it would make sense for the Bulls to select Haliburton, who is one of the most efficient guards as a scorer and playmaker offensively. He averages 6.5 assists per game while shooting 59.2% from two, 41.9% from three, and 82.2% from the line. To help him out on defense, he should put more weight onto his frame.
Prospect #10: Aaron Nesmith, Vanderbilt. SF, 6’6”, 213lbs.
He is an elite shooter and scorer from any distance and in any situation: catch and release, off the dribble, in transition, and especially wide open. He is a capable defender with the benefit of good positional size. He is a 3&D type player with the ability to develop into a more dynamic offensive player.
He is coming off a foot injury that cut his last season at Vanderbilt short. He needs to improve as a shot creator, creating separation from a contested defender is not his forte, but it can be improved. His foot injury limits his athleticism and lateral movement, which could make him a liability on defense until he heals up 100%.
Pro comparison: Buddy Hield
Nesmith would fit extremely nicely with the Hawks, who have the fourth overall pick in the draft. The Hawks need another offensive mastermind; another guy who will create shots next to Trae Young and a guy who is able to score from anywhere on the floor, in any situation. Nesmith is their guy. He could use some work as a shot creator, creating separation at an NBA level, but it is nothing that cannot be fixed.
These top 10 prospects are not the only talented players in this year’s draft. Other notable prospects include Cole Anthony, a point guard from North Carolina, Patrick Williams, a forward from Florida State and Tyrese Maxey, a shooting guard from Kentucky, among others. All of these players provide unique skills that can help certain teams succeed, as long as general managers do their homework, understand what their team needs and what players can provide that talent.
This NBA draft will be a good one, with lots of exciting and talented young players in every position. Who will come out as the winner of this year’s draft? Who will emerge as the loser?
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