Friday 5 June 2020

Analyzing the NBA’s 22 Team Playoffs

By: Adamo Marinelli
June 5th, 2020

     It’s official. The NBA is back. The 2020 Larry O’Brien trophy will be handed out. The Toronto Raptors will have a chance to defend their title. 

     After about a three-month pause due to health and safety concerns over the COVID-19 pandemic, the league will finally resume play starting on July 31st.

     The return to play plan will send 22 teams to Disney World in Orlando, Florida, the one central hub city. Each of the 22 teams will play eight “regular-season” games to determine the seeding for a complete 16 team playoff bracket, which will feature four rounds of best of 7 series to determine an NBA champion. In other words, the teams on the outside of the playoffs looking in will compete with the 7th and 8th seeds for the final playoff spots in each conference. In the East, the Philadelphia 76ers are safe in the 6th seed with a 39-26 record, the 7th seed is the Brooklyn Nets who have a 30-34 record, and the eighth seed is the Orlando Magic who have a record of 30-35, meaning the 7th and 8th seed are available as the 9th seed Wizards are only 5.5 games back of the 8th seed and 6 games back of the 7th seed. In the West, the Houston Rockets are safe with the 6th seed with a record of 40-24, the Dallas Mavericks are the 7th seed at 40-27, and the eighth seed Memphis Grizzlies are 32-33, meaning the seventh and eighth seed is available. However, Dallas must lose out and one of the lower-seeded Western conference teams eligible for the 22 team playoffs must win out in order for the 7th seed to change. Otherwise, it is just the eighth seed that the Western Conference teams will play for. In other words, teams will play against each other in an attempt to claim the 7th and 8th seeds in each conference. Also, if after the 8 “regular season” games, the 9th seed is within 4 games back of the 8th seed, in either conference, both teams will play a home-and-home elimination game, where allegedly, whoever scores the most points in both games is the winner of the little series.

     Out of the 22 teams returning to play, 13 teams will be from the Western Conference, meaning Dallas, Memphis, Portland, New Orleans, Sacramento, San Antonio, and Pheonix will all compete for the seventh and eighth seed in the West. Nine teams from the Eastern Conference will be invited to Orlando to continue their season meaning that Brooklyn, Orlando, and Washington will compete for the 7th and 8th seed in the East. 

     These eight “regular season” games are not solely to give teams from each conference who are outside of the playoffs looking in a chance to sneak into the round of 16, these eight “regular season” games will also affect the seeding of teams who have already clinched a playoff spot and of higher-seeded teams who haven’t clinched a playoff spot yet, but are about to. For example, the Boston Celtics, who have the 3rd seed in the East are 43-21. The Philadelphia 76ers are the 6th seed with a 39-26 record. So, only 4.5 games separate the 3rd and 6th seed in the Eastern Conference, meaning that after the 8 round-robin games, we could see the playoff picture change drastically if let’s say the Philadelphia 76ers take the 3rd seed, the Indiana Pacers take the 4th seed, the Miami Heat fall down to the 5th seed and the Celtics fall all the way down to the 6th seed. The same thing goes in the Western Conference, where only 5.5 games separate the 2nd seed Los Angeles Clippers with a record of 44-20 and the 7th seed Dallas Mavericks with a record of 40-27. The West is tight so the playoff picture could look very different after the round-robin games. In other words, these eight “regular season” games could have massive implications on the playoff seeding and the matchups we see in the 16 team playoff bracket. We could even see a new Eastern and Western conference champion with the 2nd seed Toronto Raptors being only 6.5 games back of the Milwaukee Bucks and the 2nd seed Clippers being only 5.5 games back of the Los Angeles Lakers, although it is slightly unlikely to happen. 

     The eight “regular season” games will start on July 31st and game 7 of the NBA Finals, if necessary will be scheduled on October 12th, 2020. The NBA draft and free agency will then follow the conclusion of the Finals in October with the next season believed to start in December 2020, around Christmas time.

     Even though there will be no travel during the rest of the NBA season and its playoffs - because all the games are happening in Orlando, Florida at Disney World resort, the league’s one hub city - having to stay in one place throughout the entire playoffs will prove to be a test for teams to win the NBA championship, as they don’t get to experience the energy their home crowds bring. 

     As NBA analyst Adrian Wojnarowski noted: "While there's not going to be travel, the playoffs aren't going to have that grueling nature, but there I think will be a different test of the (mentality) of the players and getting back into physical condition."

     Furthermore, it is undetermined if there will be training camps for each team before their 8 regular season games start, although it seems like there should be considering the high level of importance these round-robin games have for some teams, who are hoping to win the play-in tournament to sneak into the regular 16-team playoff bracket. 

     Despite the fact that all the games are happening in one city to avoid travel and the spread of the disease, there will be a lot of testing leading up to the games and also during the games because safety is the number one priority and the league needs to do everything in its power to guarantee the safety of the players, coaches, team staff, referees, arena staff and the families of the NBA players. Also, some players may be waiting out the virus in their home country which may be out of the US and they will need to follow US and Florida quarantine guidelines once they are able to return to play. In some countries like Canada, quarantine guidelines are strict, which means players might not be able to leave for a while and if they do, it may not be super easy coming back into the country. So what does that mean for the Raptors?

     Finally, for teams who aren’t in the 22 team playoffs, it may be up to 10 months before they play again, depending on when the 2020-21 season starts (reports suggest the season starts in December 2020), so how will their play be impacted next season after the long pause?

      It may be another month until the NBA season returns but at least the return is official. Basketball will be back. I cannot wait!

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