By: Adamo Marinelli
July 31st, 2018
The Ottawa Senators are coming off a very subpar and all-around disappointing season in 2017-18 with a 28-43-11 record finishing second last in their division only ahead of the Buffalo Sabres. This unimpressive season came just one year after their Eastern Conference Finals appearance in 2017 where they lost in seven games to the Pittsburgh Penguins.
This season, the Senators made a lot of trades and sent many familiar faces to new teams. On November 5th, 2017, the Senators sent centre Kyle Turris to the Nashville Predators for Matt Duchene, a centre for the Colorado Avalanche in a landmark three-team deal. Then, on February 14th, 2018, the Senators traded defenseman Dion Phaneuf to the Los Angeles Kings for right winger Marian Gaborik. This was essentially just a swap of two bad contracts but Gaborik’s contract is shorter in term and lesser in value then Phaneuf’s so financially Ottawa won the deal even though Phaneuf is three years younger than Marian Gaborik. Furthermore, before the trade deadline, the Senators traded forward Derick Brassard to the Penguins in a three-team deal including the Vegas Golden Knights for goaltending prospect Filip Gustavsson, defenceman Ian Cole, who signed with the Avalanche on July 1st after the Senators released him, and two draft picks: a first rounder in 2018 and a third rounder in 2019. Not to mention, the Senators traded left winger Mike Hoffman, prospect defenseman Cody Donaghey and a fifth-round pick in the 2020 draft for forward Mikkel Boedker, defenceman Julius Bergman and a sixth-round pick in the 2020 draft. This all happened less than a week after a shocking revelation concerning his girlfriend’s alleged harassment of team captain Erik Karlsson’s wife on social media was revealed to the media. A mere four hours after he was traded to San Jose, the Sharks flipped Hoffman and a seventh-round 2018 draft pick to the Florida Panthers for a second, fourth and fifth round draft pick in 2019. Many other trades were speculated to happen this year for the Senators but didn’t end up coming into fruition.
The Senators were doing pretty well until the Turris trade, sitting third in their the Atlantic division with a 6-3-5 record for 17 points behind the Lightning and the Bruins. It was only after the Turris trade that the Senators started to decline, but it seems unlikely that the Senators lackluster season was caused by one trade, despite the fact it wasn’t until the second half of the season that Duchene started heating up and becoming more productive on offense which is around the time Turris started cooling down in Nashville. Although, it is possible that the Senators fell off their metaphorical cliff after the Turris trade as there has been a history of team’s falling apart after they trade away one of their star players. The reason behind it is the chemistry of the current team has been disrupted and the new player will take time to adapt to the chemistry and game plan of the new team. I doubt the trade was the cause of the season of struggles for the Senators but it potentially was the cause.
Another major issue for the Senators this year was goaltending. Both Craig Anderson, the starter and Mike Condon, the backup were very inconsistent this year despite being the backbone of the team in 2017 in their lengthy playoff run all the way to game seven of the Eastern Conference Finals against the Pittsburgh Penguins. One game, the goalies would play amazing and look like an all-star and then the next, they’d surrender five goals and be pulled. Essentially, neither of the goaltenders got any rhythm going and it was just a bad season for the Senators in terms of goaltending. Anderson and Condon are both under contract for another two years -- until 2020 -- although, both of them only come to a combined cap hit of $7.1 million until their contracts end which means the Senators don’t have an excessive amount of money invested into goaltending which is considered a positive, especially because Anderson is a good goalie, he just seems to be following a trend of one good season followed by a bad season. Following a bad season, we can expect a good season from Anderson but it’s uncertain. One of the goalies might be traded this offseason, but it is unlikely because, following a bad season from each of the two Senators goalies, there is not much of a market for them and not very much interest from other teams for either Anderson or Condon.
Also, the defence was okay this past season in Ottawa with players like Karlsson, Wideman, Ceci amongst others but it has been better in previous years considering this season, the Senators were second last in the league in goal differential at -65, only ahead of the Buffalo Sabres. They scored 219 goals and conceded 284 in the 2017-18 season. But if Karlsson does get traded, the defence will take a blow unless they can get a high caliber defensive player similar to Karlsson’s talent to replace the current team captain. Hopefully, Karlsson stays or Ottawa gets a high caliber defenseman in return for Karlsson if he gets traded; so the defence can improve from this year’s lackluster performance and return to the skillful group they were in previous years with Karlsson, especially in their lengthy 2017 playoff run.
In addition, the Senators had trouble scoring this year and their offence wasn’t as potent as in previous years and they were 25th in the league in scoring, only having 219 goals for, with about 2.7 goals per game. However, with all the trades this season sending many familiar Senators to new teams, this disrupted the chemistry of the team and is potentially one of the reasons for the lack of scoring. The new players the Senators received in return for everyone they traded away helped in the scoring department this year, but considering they are relatively new to the Senators, their chemistry with the other players on the team -- especially players who’ve been on the Senators for longer than a season -- is not as high as it should be and only needs time to improve. Once the team’s chemistry does improve, the scoring will increase for the Senators and revitalize their offence. It should improve as early as next season.
Moving forward into the 2018 offseason, there are still a lot of question marks surrounding this team. The biggest one is captain Erik Karlsson. He made it clear he wanted to be paid what he was worth and nothing less and when the Senators didn’t offer that contract, he requested to be traded out of Ottawa. It was possible he could have been traded before the deadline, but the Senators couldn’t get a deal done. He was then eligible for a contract extension after July 1st, but no deal has come through yet, so it appears the Karlsson era in Ottawa will come to an end and he will be traded. It’s likely he will be traded with Bobby Ryan as a package deal to offset his $7.25 million cap hit. Karlsson has eight potential destinations in San Jose, Vegas, Tampa Bay, Washington, New York Rangers, New York Islanders, Colorado and New Jersey. But, the Sharks, Golden Knights, Lightning, Capitals and Rangers have already spoken to Senators GM Pierre Dorion about a potential trade thus far, so those five teams have a better chance of landing Karlsson then the Islanders, Avalanche and Devils, but no trade is confirmed yet. Karlsson can still in theory sign with any of the eight teams. I don’t want to see Karlsson go, as he is the face of the Senators and a franchise talent, however, the NHL is a business and trades happen. Besides, Ottawa would be over the cap if they sign Karlsson long-term at what he is valued, which is the amount of money he wants, at approximately an eight-year, $96 million deal averaging $12 million annually and then signing support around him like Ryan Dzingel, Jean Gabriel Pageau, Mark Stone, Cody Ceci, Thomas Chabot, etc., which is another reason why the Senators want to trade Karlsson. The Senators want to trade Karlsson; Karlsson wants to leave Ottawa, it looks like he’ll be traded. Besides, Senators Eugene Melnyk is cheap and doesn’t even want to spend a lot of money even on excellent talent like Karlsson, which is why Ottawa didn’t try to sign Karlsson for what he’s worth and then clear more cap space to resign other players to play around Karlsson, which is what would’ve been done if Karlsson had been resigned.
In return for Karlsson and possibly also Ryan, the Senators will be asking for a lot in return as they’re both excellent hockey players and Karlsson is a franchise player, a potential Hall of Famer and an elite defenseman who can also score. Conventional wisdom suggests a first-round pick, a promising prospect, and a roster player will be the starting point, while more picks and current roster player who is about the same talent as Erik Karlsson might work their way into that equation as well, especially if Bobby Ryan is included in the Karlsson deal, whether it is a two or three team deal. There is some precedent in Kevin Shattenkirk, who was dealt by the St. Louis Blues as a pending UFA in February 2017 (along with prospect Pheonix Copley) in exchange for a first-round pick, a conditional second-round pick, prospect Zach Sanford and depth forward Brad Malone. This is a deal similar to the potential Karlsson deal although Karlsson is a more talented defenseman than Shattenkirk. However, this precedent only matters if Karlsson gets traded and so far he is still a member of the Ottawa Senators, but if Karlsson does get traded, his deal will be compared with Shattenkirk’s deal.
Based on all these trades and roster changes, I think 2018 will be another rebuilding season for the Senators -- especially if Karlsson does get traded -- although, I do not want another rebuilding season, as the Senators should be a playoff team. I do recognize rebuilding takes time and it might be a few seasons before the Senators return to being a playoff team and possibly a Stanley Cup contender, but it’ll be a few tough seasons for Senators fans worldwide. And the first step of the rebuilding process in the next few seasons is figuring out if Karlsson is going to be traded or resigned by the Senators and if he is traded, where will he be traded?
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