By: Adamo Marinelli
August 31st, 2018
After a quiet July in terms of trying to trade all-star defenseman Erik Karlsson, GM Pierre Dorion and the Senators would prefer to trade him before the regular season starts ending a year-long saga and freeing him from the organization’s perpetual state of dysfunction.
The Senators in a last resort attempt to sign Karlsson after they failed to trade him before the trade deadline, offered him an eight-year contract extension worth $80 million, an average annual value of $10 million on July 1st, the first day of eligibility to resign their franchise defenseman. Karlsson’s team rejected the deal, considering the deal is well below market value for a player who is considered the best defenseman in the NHL. After that, a month long hiatus of silence surrounding Karlsson trade rumours happened in July. Then, in late August, trade rumours began to resurface.
As of now, it appears Karlsson will be going to a western conference team. The favourites to land Erik Karlsson are the Canucks, Golden Knights, Stars and the underdog Sharks. The Tampa Bay Lightning appear to be out of the conversation, despite being a favourite to land Karlsson at one point. Although, he’d be a logical fit in Tampa Bay. One should never count out Steve Yzerman, but the Tampa Bay Lightning have to address many complicated contract issues on their team before they make another huge deal. So, Karlsson would likely be traded to one of those four western conference teams by the beginning of the regular season.
The Senators would likely be trading Bobby Ryan and his seven-year contract at about $7,250,000 a year with Karlsson to get rid of the contract. For a franchise defenseman (despite his bad season last year) and a pretty talented forward, the Senators should be able to get two amazing current roster players back, and a first-round draft pick.
According to Sporting News: “If Ottawa is unable to move Karlsson before the 2018-19 season starts, they run the risk of losing power at the negotiating table with another team, or even playing out the season with Karlsson on the roster, and then having him walk in the summer of 2019 for nothing....and Ottawa already having unsuccessfully tried to move him prior to the 2018 deadline.”
In my personal opinion, that is not true. Karlsson didn’t have a very productive season last year, which is why he wasn’t traded at the deadline. Also, if the Senators keep him on the roster for this season, and he has a spectacular season up until the trade deadline, and is very productive, then his market value will be even higher than ever before and he’d be worth a lot more than he was asking for during this past trade deadline and offseason. As a result, when the Senators trade Karlsson and Bobby Ryan at the 2019 trade deadline, Karlsson would be at his peak value and they would be able to get two amazing current roster players, a first-round draft pick and a handful of talented prospects for Karlsson and Ryan. I think trading Karlsson at the deadline (maybe even with Ryan) is a better plan than trading him before the season starts as long as you know you have plenty of good offers when the deadline comes around. If not, take what you can get before the start of the season.
However, if Karlsson stays with the Senators and doesn’t have a good season this year, then the Senators will not be able to trade him before the 2019 trade deadline and if they do trade him they might not get as much as they deserve in return for Karlsson. As he is a superstar and they should get a lot back for him. But, even a superstar, after a couple bad seasons, especially in a row, is in danger of having is market value deteriorating. They also probably won’t get any trade offers for Karlsson in the 2019 offseason, so Karlsson will walk as a free agent in the summer of 2019 and the Senators won’t get anything in return while being stuck with Ryan.
But Karlsson having a bad year this season is very unlikely, last year’s lackluster performance was just a fluke, he was playing with a foot injury that he received before 2017’s amazing playoff run. He played in the playoffs despite the injury which worsened his condition and by the time he returned from surgery in late October, he had missed a month of the season (11 games) and still wasn’t 100% healthy. Karlsson is a superstar, after all.
However, Karlsson is a superstar. Teams that want to trade for Karlsson know what they’re getting in Karlsson. A superstar. An elite talent that plays his hardest every game. One of the best in defenders in the NHL. Him having a good year is not a fluke. Him having a bad year is a fluke. He only had a bad year because he was injured this season, an injury that lingered from last year. He is consistent year in and year out. Not only is he an elite defenseman who makes lots of plays and gets lots of assists but he is also very good on offence and knows how to score goals. And he does. If he has one bad year, like this past year, it doesn’t matter. He’s still a superstar and all 30 other NHL teams would love to have him. And they’d give up more to get him sooner rather than later.
So, in one way, trading him now, before the season starts is better than trading him at the trade deadline. If the Senators trade Karlsson now, they can negotiate with teams and get a lot more in return for Karlsson, especially if they include Ryan in the trade (although at Karlsson worth $12 million a year and Ryan $7 million per year, it’d be hard for one team to absorb this amount of money, so it looks like Karlsson and Ryan will only be traded away together if a third team is involved or else Karlsson will be traded individually.) If they wait until the trade deadline, the Senators will be in a bind and might not get as much in return for Karlsson compared to what they can get before the season starts. They’ll have to accept whatever deal a team offers for Karlsson even if the Senators don’t get as much back as they give away because if they don’t accept that deal, they might not get another deal and then Karlsson will walk away from the Senators in the summer of 2019 as a free agent because Karlsson doesn’t want to stay in Ottawa, especially if he is not paid what he’s worth. But, you can still get a good and fair deal for a superstar before the trade deadline but it doesn’t happen very often considering teams are normally in a bind in the trade deadline. The more the Senators get back for Karlsson, the faster they rebuild.
So if I were the Senators’ general manager, I’d keep Karlsson for the start of this upcoming season, if I was sure I can get a lot for let him in the trade deadline. Even if he doesn’t want to play in Ottawa, if he has a great season this year the Senators can trade him at his peak value at next year’s trade deadline (with Ryan) to maximize what they get back in the trade. And, Karlsson won’t have a bad year this season, in fact, he’ll try to make this year one of the best in his career, as he knows the better he plays this year with Ottawa, the more he’ll get paid by another team as the Senators are not going to re-sign Karlsson as Melnyk doesn’t want to spend all that money even though he’s talented. Even a superstar by playing amazing can increase their market value even more which will give him more money and the team he is traded from more players in return. If I wasn’t sure I can get a lot for him in the trade deadline or despite all the interest in Karlsson, if teams give less in return to the Senators for Karlsson because they know the trade deadline is the last chance for the Senators to trade Karlsson and if they don’t accept the trade (even if the Senators don’t get a lot in return for him in the trade), Karlsson will walk as a free agent and Ottawa will get nothing for an elite talent. In this case, I’d trade him before the season starts and make sure I get plenty in return for Karlsson instead of risking getting less than he’s worth or nothing if he walks.
I do not work in the Senators front office, so obviously, I don’t know all the details, but this is what can happen if the Senators trade him before the season and if they wait to trade him in the trade deadline.
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