Adamo Marinelli
May 2nd, 2023
Arsenal cruised to a comfortable 3-1 home win against Chelsea - to get their first win in over a month after three draws and a loss in their last four matches ahead of today’s London derby - thanks to a dominant first half that saw Martin Odegaard score a brace and Gabriel Jesus to extend Arsenal’s lead to 3-0 inside 35 minutes.
With their win today, Arsenal moves back atop the Premier League table and are two points above Manchester City (24-4-4, 76 points), but have played two more games.
Mikel Arteta’s Arsenal - who wasn’t supposed to be in a title race at the start of the season - sit at 78 points with a record of 24 wins, six draws, and four losses. Arsenal have reached 24 league wins in a single season for the first time since 2013/14 and they still have four games left to play.
Tonight marks the 248th day Arsenal has been atop the Premier League, Manchester City has been atop the table for 16 days, including for three days in mid-February after Arsenal’s 3-1 home defeat to City and for three days in late April/early May following Arsenal’s 4-1 away defeat to City and City’s 2-1 win over Fulham on April 30.
Arsenal has been atop the Premier League for 92 percent of the season, and since before the World Cup break the title was in Arsenal’s hands, they controlled their own destiny. However, after their 4-1 defeat to Man City, they no longer have the upper hand. If Arsenal win their remaining four matches, they’d finish on 90 points, if City win their remaining six, they’d finish on 94. Arsenal would have to win out and hope City drop points, which is unlikely despite their congested fixture list because of how much depth City’s squad has. Manchester City is so good, its second team could likely finish mid-table in the Premier League on its own.
Their immense amount of talent and depth at every position is why City have won eight consecutive league matches and haven’t lost a match in their last 18 fixtures in all competitions. City dropping points is very unlikely, and relying on them to drop points is silly.
If City wins both games in hand, which is very likely given their excellent form recently, they’d be four points above Arsenal and would firmly be in the driver’s seat to win their fifth title in six years. They’d also have the chance at the treble; they’re up against Real Madrid in the Champions League semifinals (a rematch of last year’s semifinal) and are in the FA Cup Final against city rival Manchester United.
Arsenal have finally regained their winning ways against Chelsea; but aside from a 4-1 win over Leeds on April 1st, they had a tough month of April, drawing three matches and losing one. Arguably, it was not the loss against City that sealed the nail in the coffin, it was the three consecutive draws, in which Arsenal blew a 2-0 lead twice against Liverpool and West Ham United and was down 3-1 to 20th place Southampton before scoring two late goals to earn a late draw in a match that felt like a loss.
Arsenal should’ve beaten West Ham and Southampton, if they would’ve won those matches, they’d be on 82 points, six points ahead of City who’d have two games in hand. If City wins both games in hand, they’d be ahead solely on goal difference and it would make for a closer title race. But you can’t cry over spilled milk.
Notably, it was three consecutive losses in April last season that took Arsenal out of the Champions League race, so April and Arsenal have an interesting history as of late.
Why has Arsenal dropped so many points recently? There are plenty of reasons one can point to for Arsenal’s struggles: center back William Saliba’s injury has caused him to be out since March 16. Arsenal has not recorded a single clean sheet in any of the 7 matches without Saliba and conceded a whopping 14 goals (two goals against per game) in his absence. With Saliba, Arsenal has 12 clean sheets and conceded only 25 goals, for a goals-against average of 0.9 in 27 games.
Rob Holding hasn’t been bad per se, but he is not as good as Saliba, and the rest of Arsenal’s back four has to compensate for the skill difference. To protect Holding, their backline moved back more than 1.5 meters with Holding in the lineup compared to with Saliba, which took their back four out of the attack and created more space in the midfield for opponents to operate in, leaving them especially vulnerable in transition with Holding’s lack of pace.
In addition, individual player mistakes, the team getting complacent with the lead and making unforced errors with the lead, or poor managerial decisions from Arteta such as waiting too long to make subs, bringing on the wrong players, using the wrong formation, refusing to change the formation or adapt at halftime, refusing to change the starting 11 and sit a player who’s been struggling (Saka) for a fresh/fit bench player (Trossard), etc.
These issues are appearing clearly now, however, they’ve been happening since the league restarted after the World Cup break. Most notably, Arsenal’s set-piece defence has gotten much worse and Arsenal have conceded too many early goals, unlike them.
In 21 games in all competitions before the World Cup break, Arsenal conceded only seven shots and chances worth 1.2 xG from inside the six-yard box and allowed zero goals on those chances. In 24 matches in all competitions since the season resumed after the World Cup break, they’ve conceded 32 shots from inside the six-yard box, allowed an xG of 9.6 from those shots and they’ve conceded 10 goals from inside the six-yard box.
In addition, Arsenal only allowed 7.9 shots per game before the World Cup with an xG against of 0.7; after the World Cup, Arsenal allow 9.5 shots per game that carry an xG against if 1.2. So, not only are Arsenal allowing more shots from dangerous areas, but they are allowing more higher quality chances from dangerous areas.
It’s not only Arsenal’s general defence that’s conceding more chances and more goals, whether it be from individual errors, tactical errors, or lapses in concentration or judgment, their defence from set pieces has also gotten worse.
In 14 league matches before the World Cup, Arsenal faced 30 shots directly from set pieces, conceded only one goal, and had an xG against of 2.36. In 17 league games since the World Cup, Arsenal has faced 41 shots directly off set pieces and conceded five goals from those shots, which totaled an xG against of 5.51.
Tactics analyst Adrian Clarke, who used to play for Arsenal, said that the way Arsenal set up their set piece defence is relatively unchanged. They run a zonal arc around goalkeeper Aaron Ramsdale which means three or four players cover zones in a semi-circle shape between both goalposts, everyone else acts as man-to-man blockers around the penalty spot. Clarke said it feels like other teams have found and exploited weaknesses in Arsenal’s set piece defence.
Many goals that Arsenal has conceded are near-post tap-ins or flicks to an open man in the six-yard box, so whoever is responsible for marking that zone hasn’t done his job as well as earlier in the campaign. The previous two goals Arsenal have conceded from corners, against West Ham and Southampton resulted because Arsenal failed to win the first header at the near post. Clarke attributes less aggressive marking and less focus and concentration as the reason why.
Clarke also said experience and composure in difficult situations play an enormous role. Man City has competed in the last six title races, this is the first title race Arsenal’s young squad is competing for. Pep Guardiola is also a much more experienced manager than Mikel Arteta. Man City have been able to go on extremely long win streaks because their players are composed in difficult situations and have the experience to deal with tough situations. Arsenal’s players have never been in this situation (barring Oleksander Zinchenko and Gabriel Jesus) which causes them to tense up, overthink, hesitate, and make a mistake in difficult situations that a City player wouldn’t.
Arsenal remain atop the table but City have two games in hand and if they win both, they’ll have the title in their hands.
Arsenal not winning the title would be disappointing given they led the league for the vast majority of the season, but this team wasn’t even supposed to compete for a title this season, they were just supposed to return to the Champions League which they have.
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