Adamo Marinelli
February 9, 2023
We all should have seen this Super Bowl 57 matchup coming from a mile away given the number of storylines that come out of this game.
Both the Eagles and Chiefs have a 16-3 record so far this season; both teams scored 546 points (regular and post-season) ahead of the Super Bowl; both teams have a Kelce brother: Jason plays center for the Eagles; Travis plays tight end for the Chiefs, both teams finished first in their respective conference at 14-3 and received a first-round bye, and both have six all pro players including their respective quarterback and Kelce brother.
Finally, Andy Reid coached the Eagles in the 2000s, leading them to two Super Bowl appearances and multiple NFC championship games. Now he is the head coach of the Kansas City Chiefs - the closest thing the NFL has had to a dynasty since the New England Patriots won six Super Bowls in 18 years - and his tactical brilliance and excellent playcalling have led the Chiefs to host the last five AFC Championship Games and made the Super Bowl on two of those occasions.
However, both teams took two very different routes to get to the Super Bowl.
The Chiefs relied on their excellent passing attack led by NFL MVP and Super Bowl Champion Patrick Mahomes, who had an incredible season, completing 67 percent of his passes, throwing for 5250 passing yards, 41 touchdowns to only 12 interceptions. The Chiefs led the NFL in passing, averaging 294.5 yards per game, a whopping 21.2 yards per game higher than the second-place Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
However, unlike in previous seasons where the Chiefs dominated opponents with the deep ball, scoring points using the pure speed of their receivers, the Chiefs took a more methodical approach to their offensive playcalling this year with longer, meticulous drives that ate up the clock and incorporated their tight ends and running backs into the passing attack more often, especially with all the quick throws and screens Mahomes made to avoid pressure and the blitz. 28 of his 41 touchdowns went to running backs and tight ends which shows how drastically their offensive scheme changed.
The Chiefs’ offensive line is still one of the best in the league - it ranked third during the regular season - and gives Mahomes a lot of time to throw. Mahomes’ elusiveness and speed also give him the ability to run out of the pocket to buy time for his receivers or scramble for the first down. The Chiefs rank 19th in the league in rushing yards, but scored 18 rush TDs, seventh best in the league.
In the playoffs, the Chiefs beat the Jacksonville Jaguars 27-20 in the divisional round, thanks in
part to backup QB Chad Henne who stepped in and excelled when Mahomes briefly exited with an ankle injury and then defeated the Cincinnati Bengals 23-20 on a last-second, game-winning field goal. They’ve scored 25 points per game and allowed 20 in the postseason.
The Eagles relied on their potent rushing attack and excellent pass rush to achieve all their success this season on their way to a second Super Bowl in five years.
The Eagles finished fifth in the league in rushing with 2509 total yards (147.6 tards per game) but scored a league-leading 32 rushing touchdowns thanks to elite blocking from their offensive line, ranked number one in the NFL by PFF and from elite speed, creativity, physicality and quickness from their runningbacks and quarterback.
Their running back trio consisting of Miles Sanders, Boston Scott, and Kenneth Gainwell posted a combined 1726 yards and 18 touchdowns: Sanders posted 1269 yards and 11 touchdowns, Scott posted 217 yards and three touchdowns and Gainwell posted 240 yards and four touchdowns. Quarterback Jalen Hurts was just as - if not more - effective on the ground as he was through the air, rushing for 760 yards, fourth most in the league, and scoring 13 rushing touchdowns, more than any other QB in 2022. Hurts scored two rush touchdowns in the postseason to increase his total to 15 which breaks the record for most rush TDs by a QB in a single season (including playoffs) breaking Cam Newton’s 2015 record of 14.
Hurts was also excellent through the air, completing 66.5 percent of his passes while recording 3701 passing yards, 22 passing touchdowns, and throwing only six interceptions. A big reason why is the addition of all-star wide receiver A.J. Brown who the Eagles got from the Titans in exchange for a first and fourth-round draft pick in 2022. Brown was more than worth the capital and every penny of the four-year, $100 million extension and had a career year with 88 receptions, 1496 yards (fourth best in the NFL), and 11 receiving touchdowns (tied for third in the NFL). He paired nicely with Devonta Smith and Dallas Goedert. The Eagles’ top 10 passing attack will have the advantage over the Chiefs’ middle-of-the-pack secondary.
The real MVP of the Eagles is their dominant defense, especially their dominant front seven, which recorded a whopping 70 sacks, 15 more than the Chiefs who ranked second with 55. The Eagles fell just short of the 1984 Chicago Bears’ NFL record of 72 sacks in a single season. The Eagles made history, having four players with 10 or more sacks: Hassan Reddick (who was acquired in free agency and was arguably their best defensive player) recorded 16, Josh Sweat Javon Hargrave, and veteran Brandon Graham each recorded 11 sacks, a simply incredible stat that shows the immense amount of talent across their entire defensive line.
The Eagles can get to the opposing quarterback in a hurry which will be the key to victory. If they can get to Mahomes, put pressure on him, hurry up his reads, and not allow him to scramble out of the pocket to make a play, they will have an advantage. However, Mahomes is hard to bring down because of his athleticism to avoid sacks, the Chiefs’ playcalling which gets the ball out quickly, and their solid offensive line which only gave up 26 sacks, the third-fewest in the league this season. The Eagles gave up 44 sacks which sounds high considering how good the Eagles’ offensive line is. The Chiefs’ pass rush is talented, especially Chris Jones and Frank Clark who combined for 20.5 of the Chiefs’ 55 sacks this year, but it is tough for any team to put pressure on Hurts when they have to get through the Eagles’ offensive line which ranks top five in nearly all metrics this season.
The Eagles continued their dominance getting to the quarterback and in the running game in the postseason. They beat the Giants 38-7 in the divisional round and beat the 49ers (who were down to their 4th-string QB) 31-7. They average 34.5 points per game in the playoffs, better than any other team, and allow only seven points a game - also the fewest among all playoff teams. Against the Giants, the Eagles rushed for 268 yards and three touchdowns and had five sacks; against the 49ers the Eagles rushed for 150 yards on the ground, had four rushing TDs, and recorded three sacks. In both games, the Eagles gave the opposing offense no chance.
The 49ers have better offensive weapons than the Chiefs, but they had a fourth-string quarterback in for most of the game. Mahomes has a strong supporting cast, not as strong as the 49ers, but he is miles better than any QB on the 49ers roster currently, so we can’t compare the Eagles-49ers to the Eagles vs Chiefs Super Bowl, however, the Eagles’ defense makes it tough for any team to protect their quarterback, run the ball and keep drives alive.
Not only is the Eagles’ pass rush, but their secondary is also among the best in the league with a duo of Darius Slay and James Bradberry - another brilliant free agency addition by GM Howie Roseman - who deserves a lot of credit for building this roster - leading the way. The Eagles gave up only 3057 passing yards (179.8 per game), the fewest in the NFL. They will be tested against the Chiefs’ NFL best passing attack, but have the pieces in place to prevent the Chiefs’ receivers from having a good game and to prevent Mahomes from having time to throw. There have also been conflicting reports about the status of Mahomes’ ankle: his father said it was nowhere near 100 percent ready, but Sporting News reported that his ankle is “doing really well” ahead of Sunday.
Both teams are very well built, have a lot of talent at almost every position, and are well coached, however, the coaching edge has to go to Andy Reid over Nick Sirianni. Despite this, the Eagles are 1.5-point favourites as of 11:30 p.m. EST on February 8, 2023, because they have the better pass rush and run game. Defense wins championships and a strong pass rush is critical to postseason success (look no further than Aaron Donald in Super Bowl 56 or Von Miller in Super Bowl 50); Hasan Reddick can be the difference maker on Sunday. While the Chiefs have a better passing game, the Eagles have a better run game and a solid passing game which is better than the Chiefs' secondary, all reasons why the Eagles are favoured.
It will be a good game regardless of the outcome, but the Eagles will win their second Super Bowl and prevent the Chiefs from winning their third. I believe the Eagles will win 31-23 in a high-scoring affair.
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