Adamo Marinelli
December 16, 2022
The 2022 Qatar World Cup Final is set. After losing their first game at the tournament, 2-1 to Saudia Arabia, which snapped their unbeaten run of 36 matches - one match short of tying Italy’s record of 37 - Argentina has reached another level and hasn’t lost a match since. Lionel Messi has been spectacular all tournament long and now has the chance to win his first World Cup title with a very strong and unified Argentinian squad.
On the other side, an extremely talented French squad with a lot of depth at every position, led by all-star Kylian Mbappe, has done the impossible by avoiding the defending champion group stage curse - where defending champions since 2006 have failed to reach the round of 16 in the next World Cup - and now have the chance to become only the third nation in World Cup history to win back to back World Cups, the first team in 60 years to achieve the feat (after Italy did it in 1934 and 1938 and Brazil did it in 1958 and 1962). This is more impressive considering they’re missing some of their important players like Karim Benzema, Paul Pogba, and N’Golo Kante among others.
Argentina handily defeated Croatia 3-0 in their semifinal match thanks to excellent defending and spectacular playmaking. Messi had another fantastic game finishing with a goal and a beautiful assist where he ran up the pitch and put a Croatian defender on skates with his incredible ball control before slotting a pass to Julian Alvarez, who tapped in his second goal of the game, which solidified the semifinal as his best game of the tournament, in which he scored a brace. His first goal resulted in a fantastic individual effort where he ran the length of the pitch before scoring.
Even though Morocco dominated possession 62-38 percent and had only one less shot attempt than France while each team recorded three shots on target, an early goal by France’s Theo Hernandez propelled France to a victory. France defended immaculately after taking the early lead and Morocco’s consistent barrage of chances was turned aside. France doubled their lead late in the match and defeated Morocco 2-0. Prior to their match against France, Morocco’s strong defense only conceded one goal against Canada in the final group stage match.
Argentina is very well managed and coach Lionel Scaloni, since taking over in 2018, has done a fantastic job with his tactics, team building, and player selection. Youngster goalkeeper Emiliano Martinez has been spectacular, posting three clean sheets at the World Cup so far but will have to play his best game and make several key saves against France’s strong attack, who can consistently generate many quality scoring chances.
Although Argentina has been led by their superstar Messi, they have had some strong performances in the midfield and in defense which have helped them win games. Enzo Fernandez and Alexis McAllister have been phenomenal in the midfield and have helped solidify their defensive backline while also helping to move the ball up the field in transition to create scoring chances. They each have the capacity to contribute goals and assists which is big too. The World Cup Final will be decided by a handful of things, including which midfield core plays better. Fernandez and McAllister will have to be on guard against all-star Atletico Madrid forward Antoine Griezmann who has single handily helped France control games with his incredible ball control, ball movement, ability to score goals, playmaking, and defensive prowess too.
Argentina’s defense led by Cristian Romero, Nahuel Molina, Lisandro Martinez, and Nicolas Otamendi has been solid all tournament long against several quality opposition attacking units like Croatia, the Netherlands, and Mexico, but they have yet to face their strongest opponent yet in France. Olivier Giroud and Kylian Mbappe are very skilled players who can score at will, are very good on and off the ball, consistently create scoring chances for themselves or for teammates, and are always super dangerous in the box. However, their offensive talent does not end with Giroud and Mbappe. If opponents shut down that dynamic duo, France has multiple other weapons that can hurt you - like Griezmann, Ousmane Dembele, and Aurelien Tchounemi, among others - if they are left in open space that’s how good they are offensively. Not only will Argentina’s centrebacks need to play a flawless game, but their midfield will also need to press France’s forwards to limit the space they have to attack. Fullbacks Molina and either Marcos Acuna or Nicolas Tagliafico will have to move in slightly to help defend France’s lethal attack while also helping commence Argentina’s attacks by pushing forward and moving the ball up the field.
France is very good, but their defense is not perfect. The left side of their defense, which Bukayo Saka consistently attacked with success in the quarterfinals to create several chances is the same side of the defense on which Morocco created the majority of their scoring chances on, despite the fact that they didn’t score. Argentina has a quality front three with Messi, Alvarez and Lauturo Martinez with Paulo Dybala and Angel Correa off the bench and France will need to ensure this side of their defense tightens up to avoid allowing a dangerous Argentine attack from heating up on the right side which would lead to multiple crosses into the box and shots on target. Dayot Upamecano was unable to start the semifinal, so Ibrahima Konate stepped up and made several tackles and clearances to keep France out of trouble - he’ll need to have another good game against a strong Argentina attack, including their front three and their midfield which frequently gets involved. Argentina’s forwards are great on the ball and have excellent ball control, they can move around rapidly with the ball on their feet which creates open space and shot attempts for themselves or their teammates. France will have to press to avoid giving Argentine forwards space to operate and get comfortable offensively. However, centrebacks Konate and Raphael Varane are among five French players who missed Friday’s training after being hit by a virus according to French media, which can cause some tactical problems and mismatches in favour of Argentina.
Manager Didier Deschamps is a tactical expert - he knows how to exploit a team’s weaknesses and take what they do well away from them. He is not afraid to play man-to-man defense and press high up the pitch to limit opponents’ scoring chances and to take away space they need to advance up the pitch to get in positions to score. He knows France’s midfield, Griezmann in particular, has the ability to control possession, take opposing players out of the game with strong defense and provide accurate long passes to unleash Mbappe or Giroud. The Argentine defense is good but is not perfect, so in order to win they will need to attack relentlessly. France has the talent to score at any time and also has the skill to be patient and outwit a defense before striking when least expected.
On paper, France is the better team; how France has still managed to be dominant even without some of their biggest stars is phenomenal and deserves a ton of credit. However, Messi has had a phenomenal tournament in what is likely his last on the international stage, and the grit
and resiliency Argentina has shown after losing their first game and how well the team is playing for each other and in support of Messi has blown away all expectations and negates any on-paper advantage.
This game will come down to which team controls possession on the midfield and defense. If the Argentine defense (with help from their strong midfield) can contain a lethal French attack long enough until their offense gets going on the counterattack, they will be in a prime position to win. However, if any of Mbappe, Giroud, and Griezmann get going and if France can hold the ball in Argentina’s end and get numerous quality scoring chances to tire out Argentina’s backline- which they’ve done the entire tournament - it will be an extremely long night for the Argentine defense.
If France scores early, they are very solid defensively and can protect the lead well, which would make it super difficult for Argentina to come back. If Argentina scores early, they need to play even better defensively because France will send the kitchen sink at them to attempt to find an equalizer. Because of this, they can’t merely sit back and defend as eventually France with their skill will find a way to score, instead, Argentina will have to score another to put the game out of reach - likely in transition - while France’s midfield and backline are up the field to help score the equalizer.
This game will be a thriller and another interesting storyline is that many club teammates will be battling it out for bragging rights on the international stage, such as Messi and Mbappe, (PSG); Hugo Lloris and Cristian Romero, (Tottenham Hotspur); Antoine Griezmann and Nahuel Molina, (Atletico Madrid); among others. Even though Messi and Mbappe will be the highlight, this game will feature many quality players at all positions on both sides of the ball.
This game can go either way. Both teams are talented and can win. But here’s how I see it playing out. 90 minutes will not be enough to decide the match. It will be 1-1 after 90 minutes, both teams will score in the extra time and the match will be 2-2 heading into penalties, where Argentina will win 7-6 to secure Messi’s first World Cup.
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