Adamo Marinelli
September 17, 2022Streaky, but deadly when hot, is an accurate way to describe this talented Blue Jays team, with depth and youth exploding at every position. They are 83-63, with 16 games left, and remain in the first AL wild-card spot, 1.5 games ahead of the Seattle Mariners. Playoffs are looking like a strong possibility north of the border.
Despite having numerous stretches throughout the year where they lose five games in a row, and then rally to win six consecutive games, the Blue Jays have had a winning record in all but one month of this season. They went 14-8 in April, 14-12 in May, 15-13 in June, 14-12 in July, 13-14 in August, and are 12-4 midway through September, their best month by far this year.
The Blue Jays have fixed their bullpen issues from last season with guys like Jordan Romano, Yimi Garcia, Tim Mayza, Anthony Bass, Zach Pop, and Adam Cimber among others all closing out games more efficiently, recording more saves, and giving up fewer runs in later innings.
Last season, the Blue Jays bullpen was nowhere near the top 10 in the MLB. It cost them numerous games and was the reason they fell just short of the postseason. A bullpen giving up an ERA of 4.08 and having only 60 holds, the fewest in the MLB will hurt any team. This season, the Blue Jays have consistently had a top-10 bullpen, giving up an ERA of 3.43 in general in the seventh to the ninth inning, an ERA of 3.69 in the seventh to the ninth inning when winning and an ERA of 3.00 in the seventh to the ninth inning when up by one run as of August 23, 2022. As of September 17, they have an ERA of 3.73, the 12th best in the league, still much better than last year. They also rank tied for seventh in the league in saves with 42, much better than last year and they still have 16 games remaining.
But midway through the year, they struggled to get consistency from some guys in their starting pitching rotation, especially Yusei Kikuchi, who could never seem to find his rhythm. While that issue was eventually fixed with Kikuchi’s move to the bullpen, Blue Jays fans were still a bit worried that starting pitching would end up costing them. Bullet dodged, at least for now.
The Blue Jays were projected to have the sixth-best starting rotation before the season, but they currently have the 10th best. Despite falling a tad short of the preseason expectations, they’ve gotten great production from their main trio of Alec Manoah, Kevin Gausman, and Jose Berrios, and have received reliable pitching from guys like Ross Stripling and Mitch White among others, which has helped them get more strikeouts, more late game leads and more wins.
Their offense is also operating at a high level and has been getting consistent production from everyone, including the young stars. In 2021, the Blue Jays finished second in the league with a 0.266 batting average and hit a franchise record of 262 home runs, 43 of which came from Marcus Semien, which broke the record for most home runs by a second baseman in a single season.
This season, they remain second in the league in batting average registering a mark of 0.261, one one-hundredth of a point behind the league-leading 0.262 Chicago Whitesox. Their hit totals and runs batted in have stayed the same or slightly increased since last season. However, their home run total has fallen significantly from last season, but the Jays still find themselves ninth in the MLB with 175 home runs.
Losing Marcus Semien and his 43 home runs hurt and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. who had 48 home runs in 2021 has only 28 this season, which explains the decline in home runs. Despite the Blue Jays scoring fewer home runs, they have given up fewer home runs and runs this season. They gave up 209 home runs in 2021 and only 169 thus far in 2022. In particular, they have given up fewer runs late in games, which cost them several games last season; this can be attributed to their bullpen success. The Blue Jays have 41 saves in 2022 with 17 games left and had only 34 in the entire 2021 season.
Also, Guerrero Jr., George Springer, and Matt Chapman have all experienced long home run
droughts at some point this season, but during that time, their teammates stepped up and provided a big boost to their offense.
This is particularly true with Bo Bichette, who is having the best month of his career in September. He is hitting an astounding .484 this month and leads the league in home runs (7), RBI (22), and runs scored (16) since September 1.
Springer, Chapman, and Guerrero Jr. have since all ended their long home run droughts. Guerrero did so in style with his 100th career home run in Wednesday’s huge win against the Tampa Bay Rays; it was his first home run in 63 at-bats since August 30th. Chapman hit two home runs in a 6-3 win against the Baltimore Orioles to end his 25-game drought. This is crucial because the Blue Jays will need to have everyone performing at their best every night on offense if they want to make and go far in the playoffs.
The Blue Jays are also 37-20 since firing Charlie Montoyo. Despite his streakiness, his poor 2-10 record in July, and arbitrary decisions to keep pitchers in the game when struggling and pull them when not necessary, he had a winning record with the team over four seasons and he led the Blue Jays to a winning record (46-42) in 2022 and had the Blue in a playoff spot at the time of his dismissal. So, a strange decision, but one that worked out for the best given his questionable managerial and personnel decisions at times.
Regardless, the Blue Jays are 83-63 and have the first AL wild-card spot, 1.5 games ahead of the Mariners. They have 16 games left and 14 of those are against AL East rivals, which means every game is important heading into the final stretch of the season. Barring a monumental collapse, the playoffs are a strong possibility; but if they win 11-12 or more of their remaining 16 games, they could even pass the 87-58 New York Yankees who currently have a 4.5-game lead in the AL East race. How the season ends, only time will tell, but this is a talented group that is streaky, but dangerous when hot.
Go Blue Jays!
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