Adamo Marinelli
May 18, 2022
Round one of the 2022 NHL playoffs has come and gone and it was a tremendously entertaining round with five of eight first-round series going to a game seven.
Let’s take a look at the second-round series and predict which teams will advance to the conference finals. Go check out my first-round playoff predictions here, I went 8/8 on my picks.
I apologize this article is late, none of my picks have changed based on all the game ones.
EAST:
Carolina Hurricanes over New York Rangers in six games.
The Carolina Hurricanes defeated the Boston Bruins in seven games and the New York Rangers defeated the Pittsburgh Penguins in seven games. For the Bruins, it may have been the final playoff run for Bruins’ legend Brad Marchand. For the Penguins, it may have been the last time Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, and Kris Letang all played together on the same team.
The Hurricanes and Rangers have only ever met once in the playoffs, and the Hurricanes swept the Rangers three games to none in the 2020 Eastern Conference qualifying round. The Hurricanes won the season series three games to one against the Rangers, but both teams have had incredible regular seasons.
The Rangers have seen their young players like Alexis Lafreniere and Kappo Kakko begin to thrive and have seen their career players like Artemi Panarin, Chris Kreider, and Miko Zibanejad have career seasons. Not to mention, Igor Shesterkin has had an incredible season in goal. He won 36 of 52 games he started with a goals-against-average of 2.07 and a save percentage of .935 percent. The Hurricanes have kept building on their momentum from previous regular seasons and playoff runs by continuing to add talent on both sides of the puck. They are getting scoring from all four of their lines on offense, with solid defense and great goaltending from their backup Anti Raanta, even after losing their starter Frederik Anderson before the postseason.
The Hurricanes and Bruins went back and forth the entire series. The Hurricanes won games one and two in dominant fashion, outsourcing the Bruins 10-3 and it looked like the series would be over quickly. The Bruins’ veterans, who have a ton of playoff experience and have had the Hurricanes’ number in recent postseasons, won games three and four in dominant fashion and outscored the Hurricanes 10-4. Games five and six were blowouts for the Hurricanes and Bruins respectively before the Hurricanes won game seven 3-2 after Max Domi registered two goals and an assist, the same Domi who scored just seven points in the last 19 games of the year.
The Rangers had a wild series too. The Rangers lost game one in triple overtime and after the first four games, were down 3-1 in the series and looked like their season would be over. In games three and four they gave up 14 goals and were no match for the Penguins. However, the Rangers won three straight games thanks to their resiliency, ability to get goals from their youngsters and veterans, and the excellent play of goaltender Igor Shesterkin in games five, six, and seven, where he regained the form that made him a favourite to win the Vezina Trophy and where he looked much better than in games one through four. Yes, the Penguins did lose their best forward Sidney Crosby and first-line defenseman Brian Dumoulin to an injury and were relying on their third-string goalie, but the Rangers played hard for 60 minutes in games five to seven, which is why they won the series.
The Rangers are a very good team on both sides of the puck and in goal and are a team that can play a very physical game, while also scoring frequently and defending well. However, in the postseason, the Hurricanes have been the better team defensively. They’ve allowed 2.86 goals against per game compared to the Rangers’ 4.14, they also allow 12 fewer shots on goal against per game and the Hurricanes have the better penalty kill than the Rangers (79.31 to 73.91 percent). Both teams can score often and get production from all their lines, but the Hurricanes still have the advantage.
If the Rangers get Igor Shesterkin who played in games one through four, they are in trouble, if they get games five to seven Shesterkin, they will be able to keep the series a lot closer. The Hurricanes also are dealing with goalie issues. Anti Raanta needs to be at the top of his game in order for the Hurricanes to win this series. The Hurricanes don’t give up a lot of goals, they have a +76 goal differential, the best in the league and Raanta was a large part of that success alongside Andersen. He Raanta needs to continue to be one of the better players on the ice for the Hurricanes and is an x-factor for Carolina. Shesterkin and Zibanejad - who can produce offensively often - are x-factors for the Rangers.
I believe the Rangers will do enough offensively thanks to scoring from their superstars, both veterans and youngsters and Shesterkin will play very well in net, however, I believe the Hurricanes are simply the superior team defensively. They don't give up a lot of goals, get scoring from all four of their lines, have a great special teams unit and if Raanta can play well, that will give them another huge advantage. The Hurricanes will take a 2-0 lead, the Rangers will tie the series 2-2, and then the Hurricanes' veterans, including two wins and a shutout from Raanta, will help the Hurricanes surge into the conference finals.
Florida Panthers over Tampa Bay Lightning in seven games.
Before last season, the Panthers and Lightning have never met in the playoffs. This season, the President’s Trophy-winning Panthers look to get revenge on the back-to-back Stanley Cup champion Lightning after the Lightning beat their state rivals in six games in the first round of the 2021 playoffs.
The Lightning won a thrilling series against the Toronto Maple Leafs in seven games after being down 3-2 in the series after the Leafs dominated game five. The Florida Panthers beat the Washington Capitals 4-3 in overtime in game six to win the series in six games.
The Panthers are a completely different team than they were last year. Aaron Ekblad is healthy once again, Anton Lundell has a year of NHL experience under his belt and the Panthers have also added talented veterans on both sides of the puck in guys like Sam Reinhart, Claude Giroux, and the physical Ben Chiarot.
The Lightning are back to back Champions and are contenders for another Stanley Cup for a reason, they know how to build a team, they know how to win in the playoffs and they are a talented team on offense and defense and have one of the best - if not the best - goalies in the league in Andrei Vasilevskiy.
Despite losing a trio of Yanni Gourde, Blake Coleman, and Barclay Goodrow, the Lightning were able to rebuild and retool by acquiring Nick Paul at the trade deadline, Brandon Hagel, and Correy Perry in free agency in addition to their stars consisting of Steven Stamkos, Brayden Point, Nikita Kucherov, Victor Hedman among many others. The Lightning looked good all season, despite having a worse record than their Atlantic division rivals. The Panthers and the Lightning each won two games in their season series. Florida won 4-1 on Oct. 19 and 9-3 on Dec. 30, while Tampa Bay won 3-2 in overtime on Nov. 13 and 8-4 on April 24. The Lightning after rallying to beat the Maple Leafs in seven games will try to win their 10th consecutive playoff series and the Panthers will try to get revenge for last year and get one series closer to the Stanley Cup Final.
Florida’s first playoff series win since the 1996 Eastern Conference Finals did not come easy as they trailed 1-0 and 2-1 in the series against the Washington Capitals. The Panthers were the better team by far but they did not play like the President’s trophy winners in every game. Despite this, their elite offensive roster eventually began to click and the Panthers relied on balanced scoring, tremendous goaltending in the second half of the series, and a breakout series from forward Carter Verhaeghe who scored six goals and six assists to help his team advance to the second round, where he will play against his former team who he won a Stanley Cup with, in 2020. Aaron Ekblad also returned and had a very solid series against the Capitals, even scoring his first playoff goal. He should be healthy enough to play against Tampa Bay.
Ekblad, Verhaeghe, Ben Chiarot, and Mason Marchment are among the Panthers operating at less than 100 percent heading into this series. Marchment is the only one of the players who is unlikely to play in game one due to the lower-body injury he’s currently dealing with.
Since getting swept by the wild card Columbus Blue Jackets in 2019 as the President’s Trophy winners, the Lightning have won nine straight series in the playoffs after beating the Maple Leafs in seven games. That success can be contributed to great coaching, a roster filled with talented players at every position, and a ton of playoff experience. Down 3-2 against the Leafs, Brayden Point scored an OT winner to force game seven and then Nick Paul scored twice for the Lightning to give them a game seven win. Tampa beat Toronto despite being outscored, getting dominated in the faceoff circles, and reigning Conn Smythe winner Andrei Vasilevskiy posting a sub-.900 save percentage. That goes to show that the Lightning can win in more than one way in the playoffs. They can win games being dominant and can win tight high scoring or low scoring games. Their goaltending and defense were solid when they needed it and they got scoring from not only their superstars but also their bottom-six forwards like Nick Paul, Corey Perry, and Ross Colton.
For Tampa Bay to win this series, Andrei Vasilesvkiy has to be stellar. They can’t afford to concede goals in bunches as they did on multiple occasions against Toronto, especially if Brayden Point, one of their better forwards and goal scorers will be injured for the series. They’ll also need production from all four lines, especially if Point is out long term.
For the Panthers to win this series, Sergei Bobrovsky needs to be flawless. He has a mediocre save percentage (.882%) and goals-against average (3.50) against the Lightning in the regular season and struggled against the Bolts a lot in the playoffs last year, getting pulled in two games and allowing 10 goals on 54 shots in those games. He needs to pick up where he left off vs Washington with three straight starts and making over 30 saves in games five and six.
Both teams have surrendered just over three goals per game and 31 shots against per game, but the Lightning have the best playoff powerplay thus far and the Panthers have had the second-worst penalty kill in the playoffs (only ahead of Nashville), killing only 66.67% of their penalties and allowing 10 powerplay goals. So the Panthers’ penalty kill must also be better if they hope to win. Both teams can score, but whoever can get a more balanced production will win the series.
Tampa Bay is the favourite in the series because they are the back-to-back Champions and have more playoff experience and are better coached but I think the Panthers will somehow pull off the upset. Sergei Bobrovsky will have the series of his life, their penalty kill will be almost perfect and I believe the injury to Point will hurt the Lightning. The Panthers will get scoring from all four of their lines and shut down a powerful Lightning offense. The Leafs almost did it, so the Panthers definitely can.
WEST:
Edmonton Oilers over Calgary Flames in seven games.
This is the first time in 31 years that we will see the battle of Alberta in the NHL playoffs. The Edmonton Oilers defeated the Los Angeles Kings in seven games and the Calgary Flames triumphed over the Dallas Stars in seven games to advance to round two.
After winning their division, the Flames were supposed to have an easier path to the semifinals but battled extremely hard in an intense seven-game series with the Dallas Stars, where they had to battle an extremely talented and disciplined Stars’ defense and they had to work very hard on offense to solve goaltender Jake Oettinger, who was near perfect for the entire series. The Flames trailed the series 2-1, then pulled ahead to take a 3-2 series lead. The Stars forced a game seven with a hard-fought victory in game six and game seven was very back and forth and both teams played well on both sides of the puck until Johnny Gaudreau ultimately scored the overtime winner.
The Oilers were pretty dominant throughout and Connor McDavid’s 14 points (four goals, 10 assists) made him the leading scorer after the first round of the NHL playoffs. Averaging two points a game through the first round, he is already a Conn Smythe favorite with three rounds still remaining to add to his playoff resume. He had six multi-point games in the series, becoming just the second player ever to accomplish that feat. The Oilers trailed the series 1-0, led 2-1, and trailed 3-2. In the final two games of the series, both elimination games, McDavid turned it up a notch and scored five points over the final two games and played almost 28 minutes in game seven.
The Oilers won two elimination games, one without their best defenseman Darnell Nurse. Goaltender Mike Smith was also fantastic after a lackluster game one, recording shutouts in games two and seven, recording a .938% save percentage in the entire series. Evander Kane was a crucial bottom six forward recording six goals and 34 shots. The Oilers’ team defense was also great in the playoffs after a strong end to the regular season under interim coach Jay Woodcroft and they got scoring from all of their lines, 12 Oilers scored in the series. Poor team defense and a lack of scoring behind McDavid and Draisaitl has been an issue in previous playoffs but were not an issue in this series.
This series will also be an offensive master class. Obviously, Oilers’ superstars Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl both finished top five in the league in scoring with 123 and 110 points respectively. The Oilers had two players surpass 40 goals, McDavid had 44 and Drasaitl had 55, but no one else on their roster eclipsed 30 goals. However, they did see increasingly more production from their second, third and fourth lines this season, an issue they faced in previous seasons. Zach Hyman had 27 goals and 27 assists for 54 points, Ryan Nugent Hopkins had 11 goals and 50 points, Kailer Yamamoto had 20 goals and 41 points and Evan Bouchard and Tyson Barrie both finished with over 40 points.
For the Flames, Johnny Gaudreau and Matthew Tkachuk both finished with over 100 points, Gaudreau scored 115 and Tkachuk recorded 104. The Flames also have four players who scored over 35 goals and three who scored over 40. Andrew Mangiapane had 35 goals, Gaudreau had 40 and Tkachuk and Elias Lindholm both scored 42. Michael Backlund, Dillon Dube, and Oliver Kylington all had over 30 points in a year where Calgary’s offense was one of the NHL’s best alongside Edmonton.
After a mid-season coaching change, the Oilers turned it around and found another level of success. The Flames, who won their division were a force to be reckoned with all season on both sides of the puck. Johnny Gaudreau also had the best playoff series of his career including the overtime-winning goal in game seven.
There will be a lot of goals in this series, but there will also be a lot of physicality and a lot of penalties too. This series is known to get very physical in the past; we may not see another goalie fight but there will be lots of aggression from both sides. However, I don’t want the refs to be a storyline. Infractions that are violent in nature and affect scoring chances should be called, but there shouldn’t be too many penalties in the sense that every little hit gets called.
In 1986, the Flames beat the Oilers and went all the way to the Stanley Cup Final. In 1984 and 1991 the Oilers beat the Flames in seven games, in 1983 the Oilers won in five games, and in 1988, the Oilers swept the Flames. In two of those seasons, the Oilers went all the way to the Stanley Cup Finals. Will the Oilers win another series against their provincial rivals or will the Flames finally get their revenge? Whoever wins, it’ll be a fantastic series.
For the Flames, the X-factors are the health of Chris Tanev, one of their better defenseman. They were without him in game seven and round one and they may be without him for the start of round two. That will have a huge impact on the series. Jakob Markstrom, who recorded a fantastic .943% save percentage in round one against the Stars will also need to be at the top of his game to keep the Flames alive against an amazing Oilers’ offense, which boasts the second-best powerplay in the league operating at 26.77 percent. Brady Tkachuk registered six points against the Stars, 2nd best on the team, but didn’t score his first goal until the equalizer in game seven. He needs to score more often against the Oilers.
For the Oilers, the X-factors are Mike Smith and if he’s able to have another incredible series like he did against the Kings. If he does, it will help give the Oilers' offense more time to click and find its rhythm, especially if Leon Draisaitl - who had an ankle injury before game seven but suited up anyway - will not be 100 percent for the series. Losing Draisaitl, a top-five scorer in the NHL, so if he is not 100 percent or cannot play, that will be bad, however, he looks ready to play in game one, even though he may not be fully healthy. Edmonton cannot ride solely on their top two players the entire playoffs, they need scoring from all four lines and they need their powerplay unit, 2nd best in the league, to show up against the Flames’ penalty kill, which has been the best in the playoffs, killing 91.67% of their penalties.
Ultimately home-ice advantage is not good enough as Connor McDavid strikes again with an OT winner in game seven to advance to the WCF.
Colorado Avalanche over St. Louis Blues in six games.
The Colorado Avalanche will be very well rested for their second-round series after sweeping the Nashville Predators in four games. The Avalanche were the much better team on offense, defense, in goal, and had superior coaching, all those factors contributed to the sweep. Meanwhile, the St. Louis Blues won a hard-fought series against their division rivals Minnesota Wild in six games with fantastic defense and goaltending. Many people are dismissing the Blues, but they have a well-rounded roster and will keep it closer than many think.
Even though this series is being seen as David vs Goliath matchup, the Blues held their own in the regular-season series against the Avalanche. The Avalanche only outscored the Blues by a combined margin of 12-11 but did win the season series 2-1. The Avalanche had a top 5 offense and defense in the league this season and had four players who eclipsed 80 points and seven players who scored over 20 goals. They have a top-five powerplay unit in the league operating at a 24.83% efficiency and average almost 36 shots a game, the fifth-highest in the league.
The Avalanche are tremendous offensively and can score goals in bunches. However, after the Avalanche swept a Blues team in the first round of the 2021 playoffs that struggled to score goals, the Blues are now firing on all cylinders and are tough for any defense to play against with their shooting and passing and their ability to get scoring from anyone. The Blues had nine players who scored 20 or more goals during the regular season and four who produced more than 70 points.
The Avalanche outscored the Predators 21-9 in their four-game series, similar to what they did to the Blues last year, outscoring them 20-7. Colorado’s success in the first round came from their superstars: Nathan Mackinnon scored at least one goal in each of the four games, Gabriel Landeskog and Mikko Rantanen each had two multi-point games and Cale Makar scored 10 points in the series, his 2.5 points per game leads the playoffs.
Even though starting goaltender Darcy Kuemper missed games three and four with an injury after getting a stick to the eye, Colorado’s backup Pavel Francouz did enough to help the Avalanche complete the sweep. Kuemper should be back to start game one vs the Blues after no major damage was done.
The Blues looked like they would go to seven games against their division rivals, the Minnesota Wild. What really happened was six blowouts, the closest game had a margin of three goals between both teams. The Wild took a 2-1 series lead but the Blues won three straight games to win the series in six games. The Blues’ biggest strength is their depth and their solid goaltending. Leading goalscorer Vladimir Tarasenko, Jordan Kyrou who is on the rise, and Ryan O’Reilly and David Perron who provide the veteran experience on the team have been the keys to the Blues’ success alongside Binnington.
The Avalanche’s offense had no problems shifting from the regular season to the postseason. The Avalanche scored 5.25 goals per game against the Predators, the best among all playoff teams, and scored on 7/16 powerplay attempts for a 43.8% powerplay, also the best among all playoff teams. Of course, the Blues are better than the Predators on both offense and defense, it won’t be as easy for the Avalanche, however, the Avalanche are well-rested, which will give them a huge advantage against a Blues team who has already played more postseason games.
Jordan Binnington played very well in games four, five, and six after backup goalie Ville Husso surrendered nine goals in games two and three to the Wild following a strong game one. He played very well and looks like his 2019 self. Also, the Blues’ offensive talent is not as good as the Avalanche, but they can still score. They had the best powerplay in the NHL at 27.61% and finished third in the league in goals per game with 3.38 in the regular season. The Avalanche had the fifth-best powerplay at 24.83% and scored 3.26 goals per game. However, the Avalanche have had the better defense in the playoffs allowing 2.2 goals against per game vs the Blues’ 2.71 and allowing 27.40 shots per game vs the Blues’ 34.29. The Blues had the better penalty killing 85.19% of their penalties vs the Avalanche killing 71.43% of their penalties.
The Blues are deep upfront like the Avalanche, but unlike the Avalanche, they are thin on the blue line. Veterans Nick Leddy and Torey Krug both missed half the series, Marco Scandella appeared in just two first-round games, Robert Bortuzzo missed a pair and rookie Scott Perunovich recovered from wrist surgery just in time to jump into the lineup for the final three games of the series. Against a potent Avalanche offense, the Blues will be at a disadvantage if they have to play without one or more of their key defenseman or if they are not 100 percent. The Avalanche do not have any injuries on their blue line and will be able to combat the Blues’ offensive attacks at 100 percent capacity.
Once again, the performance of Jordan Binnington will directly impact the Blues’ success in the postseason. In three games against Minnesota, Binnington allowed just five goals on 88 shots for a 1.67 goals-against average, a .943 save percentage, and three huge wins to send his team to round two. If he plays well, like he did in games four, five, and six or in the 2019 Stanley Cup Finals, they will be able to keep the series close. If he plays poorly, this will be over quickly.
For the Avalanche, the series will come down to whether or not they get performances from their entire team like in round one. For a team with one of the best offenses in the NHL, it’s quite unfair they also have one of the best young offensive defensemen in the NHL in Cale Makar who has 10 points in four games thus far and is looking to add more. Can he keep up his insane production, especially on special teams where he quarterbacks the powerplay? If he can, the Avalanche will get a huge advantage on offense and on defense with his physicality and ability to stop opponents’ rushes before they start and create steals.
Binnington will be strong, but with a weakened blue line, the Blues will not be able to defend against a potent Avalanche offense and a lethal powerplay and the Cup contender Avalanche will move on to the Western Conference Finals.
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