Can Italy qualify for the World Cup?

Adamo Marinelli

March 20, 2022

     The defending EURO Champions struggled in their second and third leg of World Cup qualifying matches. They won only one of five remaining matches and drew the other four after handily winning their first three games.

      Italy finished 4-4-0, second in their group behind Switzerland who finished 5-3-0. As a result, Switzerland has directly qualified for the World Cup and Italy will have to play in a playoff bracket for a chance to qualify. 

     On March 24, Italy will host North Macedonia in Palermo. If Italy wins, they will play the winner of the Portugal and Turkey match on the road on March 29. If they win the game on March 29, they will qualify for the World Cup.

     If they lose on either March 24 or March 29, they will miss their second consecutive World Cup. They missed out in 2018 after not missing a single tournament in 60 years since 1958. 

     Italy has only ever played North Macedonia twice. Italy beat them once by a score of 3-2 and most recently drew 1-1 in the 2018 World Cup qualifiers. 

     Italy is a talented team with a lot of talent at all positions but will be without several key players in the play-off games like Federico Chiesa who is out with an ACL injury, Leonardo Spinazzola who hasn’t played since rupturing his Achilles in the EUROs, and Giovanni DiLorenzo who was injured in Napoli’s match on March 19.

     Their starting 11 will likely be Gianluigi Donnarumma, Francesco Acerbi, DiLorenzo, Giorgio Chiellini, Leonardo Bonucci, Emerson Palmieri, Nicolo Barella, Jorginho, Marco Verratti, Domenico Berardi, Lorenzo Insigne and Ciro Immobile. 

     They have several quality backups like Andrea Belotti, Joao Pedro, Giacomo Raspadori, Gianluca Scamacca, Manuel Locatelli, Lorenzo Pellegrini, Matteo Pessina, Gianluca Mancini, Alessandro Bastoni, Christiano Biraghi, Alessandro Florenzi and Salvatore Sirigu. 

     The loss of Chiesa, Spinazzola and DiLorenzo will be a huge factor in the game, especially on the defensive side, so manager Roberto Mancini will have to be creative with his tactics and the players he uses in order to outduel an improving North Macedonia side. 

     After losing all three games at the 2020 EUROs, their first major tournament, North Macedonia won three of their last five competitive fixtures. They beat teams like Lichenstein 4-0, Armenia 5-0, and Iceland 3-1. They lost 4-0 to Germany and drew 0-0 with Romania. Those aren’t the most talented teams but to win with scorelines like that and to look good in those performances is significant. 

     They also have several quality players like Goran Pandev, Elif Elmas, and Darlo Velkovski.  

     

     Italy is the better of the two sides and should win against North Macedonia. It won’t be easy, but with their depth at all positions, their talent, tactics, and their ability to control games under Mancini, they should be able to win 2-0 thanks to their good defense and transition attack. 

     If Turkey manages to win against Portugal, which is extremely unlikely, Italy should also be able to beat them comfortably too after beating them 3-0 at the EUROs. If Portugal wins, Italy will have a much tougher task at hand. 

     Portugal is loaded with talented players all over the roster. 

     With the roster they have, you’d expect them to have more than one European Championship and one UEFA Nations League, but they’re a team almost nobody wants to match up against.

     They have Cristiano Ronaldo, Bruno Fernandes, Diogo Jota, Bernardo Silva, Ruben Dias, Joao Cancelo, Rafa Silva, Cedric Soares, Andre Silva, Joao Moutinho among several others quality players and on the bench.

     They are well managed under Fernando Santos, are very strong on both sides of the ball, can shut opposing offenses down, can score at will, can move the ball extremely well, can control possession time and when they get hot, very few teams can slow them down. Their starting 11 isn’t only talented but their reserves are also always high quality.

      If Italy and Portugal both win their opening games, I expect their game on March 29 to come down to the wire. 

      Both teams have experience in big tournaments, but recently Italy has had more after winning the Euros. Portugal made the 2018 World Cup, Italy didn’t, but they only won one of their four games. Italy was a perfect 7-0-0 at the 2020 EUROs.

     Their game will end 1-1 after 120 minutes and Italy will win 5-4 on penalties after Gianluigi Donnarumma makes a crucial save.