Adamo Marinelli
February 11, 2022
V.S.
4) Los Angeles Rams (12-5) 4) Cincinnati Bengals (10-7)
Sunday, February 13, 2022
So-Fi Stadium
Inglewood, California
6:30 pm EST
Super Bowl 56 is set. The NFC champion Los Angeles Rams will take on the AFC champion Cincinnati Bengals at So-Fi Stadium. Both teams are the fourth seed in their respective conference and feature two quarterbacks in Joe Burrow and Matt Stafford who have never won a Super Bowl, but this championship could be the first of many in their careers, especially Burrow.
The Rams will have a chance to become only the second team in NFL history to win the Super Bowl on their home field. The Rams will have a chance to win their second Super Bowl in five trips and the Bengals will have the chance to win their first Super Bowl on their third trip.
The Rams opened as four-point favourites, and as of February 11 are still four-point
favourites, but the line has been moving frequently. Also, anything can happen on any given Sunday as we’ve seen numerous times throughout the season and the playoffs.
Sean McVay and Zach Taylor are two of the most brilliant offensive-minded coaches in the NFL. Both coaches have already established quite a reputation in the NFL, especially McVay, who was the youngest coach to appear in a Super Bowl, coaching in Super Bowl 53 at 33 years old. He will look to get his first ring after a disappointing 13-3 loss to the Patriots three years ago. McVay and Taylor are both under 40 years old and are running two of the best offenses in the NFL. Both the Rams and Bengals have a plethora of weapons at receiver and tight end and an excellent running back core. The difference is, the Rams have the better offensive line and the better pass rush and overall defense, which could be the decisive factor in this game.
Super Bowl 56 will feature two teams who were built very differently.
The Bengals finished off a long rebuild after drafting most of their skill players like Joe Burrow, Joe Mixon, Ja’Marr Chase, and Tee Higgins. Nobody expected the Bengals to get to the Super Bowl. Many people wrote them off and didn’t even expect them to get to the playoffs. Analysts had them finishing last in the AFC North. When they got to the playoffs, people didn’t expect them to win. But they did win against three really good teams in the Raiders, Titans, and Chiefs. The Bengals are in an amazing position with no expectations to win, but enough talent on their roster to pull off an upset. Whatever happens, their season has been a success.
The Rams, however, mortgaged their future by trading away the majority of their high-round draft picks (they don’t have a first-round pick until 2024) for veteran superstars like Matt Stafford, Odell Beckham Jr., and Von Miller. They were NFC West and Super Bowl favourites before the season started and their roster only got stronger at the trade deadline. After starting the season 7-1, they suffered a three-game losing streak. Despite that losing streak, they won five of six games to end the season and three nail-biting playoff games. They are now one win away from proving they were justified in bringing all those veteran stars in. However, after mortgaging their future on their current core, it’s Super Bowl or bust for the Rams.
Both teams have had somewhat similar paths to the Super Bowl. The Rams dominated their division rivals, the Arizona Cardinals, 34-11 in the wild card round, upset the defending Super Bowl champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the divisional round after almost blowing a 27-3 lead and overcoming the resilient San Fransisco 49ers, another division rival, in the NFC championship thanks to a game-sealing INT thrown by Jimmy Garoppolo.
The Bengals held on to beat the Las Vegas Raiders in the wild card round, their defense came up with several turnovers en route to a game-winning field goal to beat the one seed Tennessee Titans despite giving up nine sacks and they came back from a 21-3 deficit to upset the Kansas City Chiefs to win 27-24 in OT, despite losing the coin toss.
Both the Bengals and the Rams ranked top 10 in the league offensively. The Bengals and Rams each scored 460 points this season. Both teams have a lot of talent at the running back position. Joe Mixon and Cam Akers/Sony Michel are strong powerful runners, but they can also catch out of the backfield which helps their short/intermediate passing game. However, each team ranks in the bottom half of the league in rushing yards.
The Rams have a top-five passing attack in the league, thanks to Matt Stafford’s arm strength, talent, and having so many weapons to throw to. Stafford had 4886 yards, 41 TDs, and 17 INTs. Almost 2000 of those yards came from Cooper Kupp, who won the receiving triple crown with the most receptions (145), yards (1947), and TDs (17) of any receiver in the league this season. Kupp’s success has attracted more attention from other opposing defensive backs on the field, which has allowed Odell Beckham Jr., Van Jefferson, and Tyler Higbee to have extremely productive seasons too. Robert Woods was also a threat before his injury. The Rams have so many weapons at receiver, tight end, and running back, the question of who will cover OBJ and Van Jefferson if the Bengals double team Kupp must be asked. Eli Apple and Mike Hilton may double team Kupp which leaves Tre Flowers with Van Jefferson, Chibodie Awuzie with OBJ and Jessie Bates may have to guard Tyler Higbee unless the Bengals play a tight zone defense. Either way, Higbee is a huge mismatch and a threat in the middle of the field.
This Rams’ offense is built off the run. A successful run game and a plethora of receiving targets give Stafford a lot of options to throw the ball to. If the Rams can open up the passing attack and get big plays downfield as a result of a dynamic running game, they will have an advantage. The Rams will try to switch between the run and the passing game to keep the Bengals defense on their toes. This will allow the Rams to always have someone open. The key for Stafford will be to not turn the ball over. He finished 8-0 without an interception and 7-5 in games with one or more interceptions/turnovers. He threw 17 interceptions this season, including a handful of games with two or more, which is the most he’s thrown since 2012. The Rams can win when Stafford turns the ball over thanks to their talented defense and explosive offense that can score at will, but they can win a lot easier when Stafford plays a clean game.
The Bengals’ offense is not very far behind the Rams. They have the seventh-best passing attack thanks to Joe Burrow’s incredible comeback season. Joe Mixon and Samaje Perine are both very good but their offense rests in the arms of Joe Burrow who threw for 4611 yards, 34 TDs, and 14 INTs in 2021. Ja’Marr Chase is having one of the best rookie receiving seasons in NFL history with 81 receptions, 1455 yards (651 after the catch), and 13 TDs. His success has helped other talented receivers like Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd succeed often. When Burrow isn’t destroying defenses, either Boyd or Higgins makes up for it. Against the Chiefs, Chase was kept in check. As a result of double-teaming Chase, Higgins found himself open all day recording six receptions for 103 yards. C.J Uzomah is a dynamic receiving threat and has been a huge help in the passing game too.
The best way for Bengals to counter the pressure from the Rams’ pass rush is to rely on their explosive run game, to get the ball out quickly, and to let their offensive weapons - especially Chase who is a monster in yards after the catch - do damage with their speed and agility. Screens; play-action passes; dump-offs to Joe Mixon, who can catch out of the backfield and turn check-downs into big plays; quick slants, and other short routes will be key for the Bengals’ offense to succeed. If this offensive line can give Burrow time to find his open receivers as they did against the Chiefs when they only conceded one sack, he’ll shred opposing defenses. The difference is, the Rams’ defensive line is far superior to the Chiefs’ defensive line. Joe Burrow will have to ensure he plays a clean, turnover-free game in order to have a chance to win. The Rams have recorded at least one takeaway in their last 10 games playoffs included and Burrow has thrown one interception in his last two games. If Burrow plays a clean game, their chances of winning increase.
The Rams boast the second-best passing defense in the league, only giving up 17 passing TDs all year and forcing 19 interceptions. This is because the Rams do not allow many big plays downfield, they make opposing offenses slowly move the ball down the field which leads to them making mistakes and turning the ball over. It is also because the Rams have one of the best - if not the best - pass rush units in the league. They can get to, pressure, and sack opposing quarterbacks very easily and often which prevents opponents passing attacks from getting anything going. Finally, the Rams have a very strong secondary consisting of Jalen Ramsey, Darious Williams, David Long Jr., and Jordan Fuller among others. We will likely see Ja’Marr Chase vs Jalen Ramsey, which will be another critical matchup that may play a role in deciding the game’s outcome. Ramsey is one of the best shutdown corners in the league and Chase is already tearing up the NFL as a rookie. That will put Darious Williams and David Long against Tyler Boyd and Tee Higgins, both are talented receivers.
Speaking of the Rams’ pass rush, it is arguably the best pass-rushing unit in the league with Aaron Donald, Von Miller, Leonard Floyd among many other talented players. They finished third in the NFL in sacks with 50 and recorded multiple sacks and turnovers in all three of their playoff games thus far. Aaron Donald’s playoff numbers haven’t been flashy but his dominance requires additional lineman to attempt to slow him down which opens the door for Von Miller (seven sacks in the last seven games) and Leonard Floyd (seven sacks in the last eight games). It just so happens Joe Burrow got sacked 51 times, more than any other QB in the league this year and their offensive line gives up a lot of pressures. Their pass rush is going to be a big factor in the Super Bowl. It will be especially effective if the Rams stop the run and force Burrow to pass because then they can just send the dogs. To make things more interesting, the Rams have a top 10 rushing defense. They’ve given up only 1754 rushing yards, 6th best in the league, and have given up 18 rush TDs. Because they are able to generate pressure and disrupt their opponents’ backfield from the edge or in the interior, the script is favourable for the Rams to stop the run. If they do, they may record numerous sacks. If they can’t stop the run, the Bengals can use their run game to open up the passing attack which may help them.
However, one thing the Rams shouldn’t look to do a lot despite their talent is blitzing. Joe Burrow has done very well against pressure and against the blitz. He had a 94.6 rating against pressure, 3rd best according to PFF, and he had a 93.0 rating against the blitz, the best in the NFL according to PFF. In the playoffs, he is still a respectable 86 grade against the blitz in the playoffs but his grade against pressure has shot down dramatically to a 40 in the postseason thanks to the nine-sack game vs Tennessee. In the regular season, Burrow had an 11:5 TD:INT ratio against the blitz and leads the league in yards per attempt against the blitz with 11.2. The Rams will have to bring pressure with just four guys, but considering the Bengals' offensive line is bottom 10 in the league in pressures given up and gave up a league-worst 51 sacks, they should be able to. If the Rams do decide to blitz, they are the eighth-highest blitzing team in the NFL, Burrow will have plenty of chances to showcase his skills against the blitz and additional pressure.
The Bengals defense is a middle-of-the-pack unit. It is good, but not as well-rounded and talented as the Rams’ defense. They rank seventh-worst in the league in pass yards allowed conceding 4222 yards. They rank 15th best in terms of pass TDs allowed, giving up 26. Despite giving up a lot of passing yards and TDs, the Bengals can force turnovers and rush the passer effectively. This season, they recorded 13 interceptions, and rank just outside the top 10 in the league in sacks with 42. However, the Bengals secondary will have a lot to think about with Cooper Kupp, Odell Beckham Jr., Tyler Higbee, and Van Jefferson all catching the ball. Cam Akers and Sony Michel can also catch out of the backfield in addition to physical rushing for first downs. With all the weapons the Rams have on offense, the Bengals secondary will either have to play a perfect game or they will have to rely on their pass rush to hurry Matt Stafford’s decision-making. The Rams’ offensive line is 10th best in the league, only giving up 30 sacks this season, so the Bengals will have to get creative if they want to get to Stafford.
The Bengals’ pass rush vs the Rams’ offensive line and the Bengals’ offensive line - which is one of the worst units in the league - vs the Rams’ pass rush - one of the best units in the league - will both be marquee matchups. The winner of those two matchups may ultimately decide the victor of the Super Bowl considering both offenses are extremely talented. The Rams have the advantage at both pass rush and at offensive line. The key for the players in the Bengals’ front seven like Sam Hubbard, Trey Hendrickson, Larry Ogunjobi, and Germaine Pratt among others is to generate pressure against an elite Rams’ o-line to give Stafford less time to make his reads and decisions. If they can generate pressure, which is no easy task, it will help their secondary out by reducing the amount of time they chase after the speedy Rams’ receivers. It’s extremely challenging for defensive backs and linebackers to cover speedy receivers for extended periods of time. But the Rams’ offensive line is the real deal, top 10 or better in most major categories according to PFF. The question is how can they generate pressure and will they be able to?
The answer is probably not with the blitz. Stafford has also been excellent against pressure and against the blitz all season long (playoffs included) with a 91.2 PFF grade (third-best). He has a 15:1 TD:INT ratio vs the blitz, the best in the NFL, and records 9.3 yards per attempt with additional pressure. If the Bengals blitz, that will leave one of the Rams’ many weapons open and Stafford will surely be able to find him. However, they blitz the second-fewest times of any team in the league, so they probably won’t blitz much on Sunday.
Both special teams’ units are fantastic as well, namely the kickers. Rams’ kicker Matt Gay made 32/34 field goals and 48/49 extra points this season and has continued that dominance into the playoffs. He kicked three game-winners, including two in the playoffs. Bengals’ kicker Evan McPherson made 28/33 of his field goals and 46/48 extra points this season. He made five game-winners, two in the playoffs. He made all 12 of his field goals in the playoffs, three of them were from 50+ yards. That’s the definition of clutch. If the game comes down to a field goal, I would trust both of these kickers to deliver on the biggest of stages.
Regardless of who wins, this game will prove to be an entertaining one. I believe the Rams will win a high-scoring affair 35-32. Both offenses are excellent, but the Rams’ defense is better than the Bengals, both in terms of pass rush and in the secondary. Couple that with a not-so-sturdy Bengals’ offensive line and that means Aaron Donald and Von Miller will win this game for the Rams, despite having such a good offense under Stafford and McVay. The Bengals will force multiple turnovers to keep the game close, but in the end, the Rams’ front seven will seal the deal. I predict the Rams will cover the spread and win 31-27. Von Miller will record 3 sacks and a fumble to win Super Bowl MVP. Catch all the action on February 13 at 6:30 pm ET.
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