Adamo Marinelli
Jan. 12, 2022
At the end of an extremely entertaining, wild, and extended NFL season, the 2021 playoff picture is set and there are a handful of entertaining matchups, including some intense division rivalries and several rematches from this season.
Before we take a look at the matchups and predict the winners, the season finale between the Raiders and Chargers was one of the - if not the - best games of the year. The Raiders won on a last-second field goal in overtime, but if it weren’t for a timeout by the Chargers, the game could have ended in a tie, sending both the Chargers and Raiders into the playoffs, eliminating the Steelers in the process.
Let’s start with the AFC bracket.
Big Ben will likely play his last game with the Pittsburgh Steelers who will travel to Arrowhead Stadium to play the Kansas City Chiefs. The Chiefs are the better team both offensively and defensively and will win this game with relative ease. T.J. Watt is a weapon on defense for the Steelers. He leads the NFL in sacks with 22.5 and the Steelers have 55 sacks, which is the most in the NFL. He will affect Patrick Mahomes but not enough to help the Steelers win. Mahomes will spread the ball around and they will use the run and the pass to beat the Steelers. The Steelers have weapons on offense, including Najee Harris, but it won’t be enough to overpower the Chiefs’ defense. It won’t be as big a blowout as it was on Boxing Day when the Chiefs won 36-10, but the Chiefs will win by 10.
Mac Jones and the Patriots will travel to Buffalo to visit the Bills, their division rival. The Pats and Bills split the season series 1 game apiece. The Patriots’ running game dominated the Bills in the first matchup, going for over 200 yards. Mac Jones completed only 2 of 3 passes for 19 yards in the win. In the next matchup, Josh Allen threw for 300+ yards and 3 TDs and the Bills’ defense shut the Patriots’ offense down. This game could go either way, both of these teams are very good on both sides of the ball, but I think the Bills win in a tight game at home.
Finally, the Las Vegas Raiders travel to Cincinnati to take on Joe Burrow and the red-hot Bengals. Both teams are making their first playoff appearances since 2016 and 2015 respectively. The Bengals exploded for 19 points in the 4th quarter on their way to a 32-13 rout. The Bengals are the better team, but the Raiders are a feisty relentless bunch that doesn’t go away. They won the last four games of the season to clinch a playoff spot. The Raiders will keep it interesting, especially with Maxx Crosby rushing Joe Burrow, but the Bengals’ offense is on too much of a hot streak. They won’t be stopped. Bengals win.
In the divisional round, the Bengals will travel to Tennessee to play the number one seed Titans. The Bengals are one of the most balanced teams in the AFC with a solid defense, amazing QB play from Joe Burrow, and a powerful offense both on the ground with Joe Mixon and through the air with Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd, and even C.J. Uzomah. The Bengals can win games in many ways on both defense and offense. The Titans are nothing to scoff at either. They have been worse without Derrick Henry at running back but still did enough to claim the #1 seed in the AFC with a 12-5 record. They have a top 10 defense, a solid receiver core, and their backup running backs played very well in Henry’s actions. This will be close, but with a lack of experience from the Bengals in the playoffs, I’ll take the Titans to win by under 7.
In the other matchup, the Bills will travel to Kansas City to play the Chiefs. The Bills beat the Chiefs handily this season, however, that was before the Chiefs defense made a huge improvement from a bottom 5 defense in the league to a top 10 defense. Mahomes and the offense also look considerably better than at the beginning of the season. He is making fewer mistakes and they have started to run the ball more which opens up the passing game and tires out opposing defenses. They’ve won the last 9 of their 10 games of the season and are red-hot entering the playoffs. However, the Bills have gone on a run too, winning their last 4 games. Josh Allen has looked great, their run game is improving and their defense is the best unit against the pass, and are middle of the pack against the run. The Chiefs will be the favourite to win, but I predict the Bills will stop the run and force Mahomes to make difficult throws under pressure against their #1 rated pass defense. Josh Allen will have a career day throwing for 350 yards and 4 TDs. Their defense will get key turnovers and stops against Mahomes when it counts. The Bills upset KC in a back and forth game 35-31, despite all of KC’s playoff experience.
In the AFC championship, I have the Bills visiting the Titans. Two of the best teams in the AFC will meet to earn a trip to Superbowl 56. Both teams have top 6 defenses and can generate a lot of pressure against opposing QBs. The Bills have the third-most takeaways in the league with 30, the Titans are 14th in that department with 22. The Bills are a great unit against the pass but the middle of the pack against the run giving up 1866 yards and 19 rush TDs. If Derrick Henry is back and fully healthy which he will be, the Bills will struggle to stop the run and Henry will dominate. This will open some holes against the Bills’ pass defense, which is the best in the league. The Titans are a pretty good unit against the pass, so if they can take a lead and control the ball with their run game, they’ll force Josh Allen to throw the ball a lot which may lead to turnovers. The Titans give up a lot of yards between the 20s but are tough to score on, giving up only 24 pass TDs, the top 10 fewest in the NFL. Josh Allen is a great QB and will keep it close, but I have the Titans winning.
AFC Champ: Tennessee Titans
My AFC bracket predictions
1) Titans bye
2) Chiefs > 7) Steelers
3) Bills > 6) Patriots
4) Bengals > 5) Raiders
1) Titans > 4) Bengals
3) Bills > 2) Chiefs
1) Titans > 2) Bills
AFC Champ: Tennessee Titans
Let’s move on to the NFC bracket.
In the first matchup, the Philadelphia Eagles will visit Tampa Bay to visit defending Super Bowl Champion Buccaneers. The Eagles have gone on a nice run to end the season, winning 7 of their last 9 games. Some of it is due to playing the easiest schedule in the league, however, the Eagles made a schematic change that involved running the ball more to take pressure off Jalen Hurts and it worked wonders. It opened up the passing attack for Hurts, allowed Hurts to use his legs to extend drives, and allowed the Eagles to control the clock and time of possession against weaker opponents. As good as they are, they are not beating the defending Super Bowl champion, even with the various injuries they have. The Bucs are a top 5 defense and a top 5 offense in the NFL and Brady has the most playoff experience of anyone in the league. It will be a close game, but the Bucs will beat the Eagles for a second time this season.
Next, we have the red-hot 49ers visiting the Dallas Cowboys. The Cowboys have not won a playoff game since 2018, however, they have looked great all season long minus a few games against the Broncos, Chiefs, Cardinals, etc. The Cowboys have a top 10 defense and lead the league in takeaways with 34 and interceptions with 26. They are also top 15 in the league in sacks with 41. Micah Parsons has been incredible too and this defense has improved a lot in little time. Their offense is also clicking at the right time. Dak Prescott has the most TD passes in a single year in Cowboys history with 37, and the Cowboys can beat you in the run game with Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard and the passing game with Amari Cooper, Ceedee Lamb, Dalton Schultz, Cedric Wilson among others. The 49ers are a very good team, especially on offense. George Kittle, Elijah Mithcell, and Deebo Samuel have all been awesome down the stretch for the 49ers. Samuel has been excellent both as a receiver and running back. Jimmy Garappolo also played very well against the Rams last weekend to earn a playoff spot. The 49ers also have a top 10 defense, are strong against the run, and can get turnovers. This game will be high-scoring and both teams will move the ball well. It will come down to who’s defense gets more stops and who the better red-zone offense will be. I believe the Cowboys win a close one.
Finally, the Cardinals will travel to Los Angeles to play the Rams, who have been on a great run to end the season. The Rams made a lot of moves including acquiring Von Miller, Odell Beckham Jr., Matthew Stafford among others to win playoff games now. They do not have a first or second-round pick for a while. If the Rams do not win, there will be some major turnaround this offseason. The Cardinals and Rams both have top 10 offenses in the NFL and top 15 defenses. Both teams have talented QBs and can run the ball well. Both teams have a lot of weapons, particularly at wide receiver. The Cardinals have Deandre Hopkins and the Rams have triple crown-winning receiver Cooper Kupp who led the league in receptions, yards, and TDs. This game will be very close as these teams are evenly matched and both teams won one game in their season series. The Cardinals humbled the Rams early in the season and the Rams won an important game later in the season. The winner of this game will have to run the ball well, control the time of possession and get turnovers on defense without making mistakes on offense. I am going to take the Rams to win by 6 - I think they are the slightly better team - especially because the Cardinals lost 4 of their last 5 games. However, if the Cardinals run the ball well, control the time of possession and put Matt Stafford under pressure, he is prone to throwing costly interceptions which has hurt his team in their losses and even in some of their wins. This could lead to an upset.
After a close win against the Cardinals, the Rams will visit Lambeau to play the Green Bay Packers. The Rams are a very good team on both offense and defense, but the Packers are the NFC’s first seed for a reason. Head coach Matt Lafleur has 13 wins in each of his first three seasons - an incredible feat accomplished by no other head coach. Aaron Rodgers is playing incredible football, is a lock for another MVP award, and his team is Super Bowl favorites. Their defense is excellent, recording 26 turnovers, the 9th most in the league. They are a top 11 rush and pass defense and are top 10 in most metrics. They are a mid-tier team running the ball but they have two talented, physical running backs who can break through tackles, get yards after contact, and catch passes out of the backfield. Not to mention, they have one of the best wide receivers in the league in Davante Adams who catches nearly everything thrown his way. Allen Lazard and Marquez Valdes Scantling are solid WR2 options. Jalen Ramsey, Aaron Donald, and Von Miller are essential parts of this Rams defense and will make things harder for the Packers offensively, but I believe the Packers’ offense will overpower the Rams’ defense. Matt Stafford, Cooper Kupp, Sony Michel, and Cam Akers - who is supposed to return for the playoffs - will keep the game close, but a late-game INT will seal the game for the Packers.
In the final divisional matchup, the Cowboys will visit the defending Super Bowl champion Buccaneers. The Cowboys have one of the best defenses in the league as well as a top 10 rush offense and have the second-best offense in the league in terms of passing yards, passing TDs, and completion percentage. The Buccaneers have the best passing offense in the league in every major category and are a pretty solid team running the ball, although without Leonard Fournette they have a considerably weaker ground game. In addition, injuries to guys like Fournette and Chris Godwin make Tampa Bay’s path to the Super Bowl much more difficult. Both teams’ passing defenses are in the bottom half of the league, meaning this will be a high-scoring, back and forth game. I believe both QBs will throw for over 300 yards and 3 TDs. The Buccaneers’ rush defense is third-best in the league; the Cowboys is 16th. The Cowboys’ defense does record more takeaways than the Buccaneers. However, the Buccaneers will win this playoff game by a TD because the Bucs, especially Tom Brady, have more playoff experience than the Cowboys and because the Buccaneers will be able to run more efficiently against Dallas - even without Fournette - which will help them control time of possession and open up the passing game. Zeke and Pollard might have a tough time running vs the Bucs.
In the NFC championship game, the Buccaneers will visit the Packers in a rematch of the 2020 championship game. In 2020, poor secondary play, a late TD given up at the end of the first half, and a decision to kick a field goal instead of going for it late in the fourth quarter cost the Packers the game and they lost their 4th NFC championship game in 7 games. The Packers have improved their secondary a lot since last year’s NFC championship game and Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams are both having another MVP type season. The Packers had the better defense than the Bucs and the Bucs had the better offense than the Packers in the regular season, but both teams are top 10 in the league and top 3 in the NFC. This will be a close game, either team could win, but I have the Packers winning after a huge fourth-quarter comeback, getting their revenge against the Bucs, and making their first Super Bowl since 2011.
My NFC bracket predictions
1) Packers bye
2) Buccaneers > 7) Eagles
3) Cowboys> 6) 49ers
4) Rams > 5) Cardinals
1) Packers > 4) Rams
2) Buccaneers > 3) Cowboys
1) Packers > 2) Buccaneers *revenge from 2020*
NFC Champ: Green Bay Packers
Super Bowl 56: Green Bay Packers vs Tennessee Titans
Aaron Rodgers after exorcising his team’s NFC championship demons will have a chance to win his second Super Bowl. He will lead a Packers’ team that has a top 10 offense and a top 10 defense against a Titans team that has a lethal rushing attack, especially with Derrick Henry back adding to a core of D’Onta Foreman and Jeremy McNichols who both excelled in Henry’s absence. The Titans were ranked the 16th best offense in the regular season but were a top 10 unit with Derrick Henry because of his ability to run the ball very well, which helped the Titans control time of possession, tire out opposing defenses, and open up the passing game. They should return to a top 10 offense with Henry. However, the Packers are a top 10 total defense, the 11th best unit against the run, and 10th best against the pass. The Packers can also generate a lot of pressure, they were top 15 in sacks and top 10 in QB hurries. If Derrick Henry can run all over the Packers defense, control the clock and open up the passing game, the Titans have a good chance to win. However, I believe as good as Henry is, the Packers' defense will limit Henry to under 100 yards rushing and force Tannehill to pass the ball to score touchdowns. The Titans have a great WR core with guys like Julio Jones and A.J. Brown who can make contested catches and get yards after the catch and they will help keep the game close. The Titans are also the second-best defense against the run, so it will be hard for the Packers to run the ball against the Titans even with Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon. The Packers are getting LT David Bhaktiari back, which should help the run game, but the Titans are still hard to run against. However, the Titans are a bottom 10 team in pass defense and they are going against an MVP candidate Aaron Rodgers with lots of weapons at wide receiver, particularly Davante Adams. Aaron Jones is also a great pass-catching back. The Packers’ advantage in the passing game and their ability to help the run as well as a late turnover by Ryan Tannehill will seal the win for the Packers. Aaron Rodgers retires after winning his second Super Bowl, Adams enters into free agency for a huge payday.
Super Bowl 56 Champ: Green Bay Packers
There are a lot of interesting matchups in every round of the playoffs, particularly in the wild card round. That will make for some entertaining games and potentially some upsets. For example, the 49ers could easily beat the Cowboys if Jimmy G plays mistake-free football like he did in the second half of week 18. The Raiders could potentially beat the Bengals, that is slightly less likely, however. The Patriots can beat the Bills using their excellent run game if the weather is not optimal for passing the ball as we saw in their first matchup this season and the Cardinals could beat the Rams too. Regardless of what happens, the playoffs should be very fun to watch.
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