Adamo Marinelli
November 20, 2021
What a strange year for Broncos Country. In a year where the players and staff on the team and all of the fans had playoff aspirations - and perhaps even more - most of the fanbase is shocked and quite frankly stunned heading into their bye week, which starts tomorrow.
The Denver Broncos started out 3-0, with wins over the New York Giants, Jacksonville Jaguars, and New York Jets. After week 3, they were the number one ranked team in the AFC West and the entire AFC. They outscored their opponents 76-26 in those games and had the best defense in the league in multiple categories, including the fewest points allowed.
Their quarterback, Teddy Bridgewater looked good, everybody was accepting Head Coach Vic Fangio’s decision to start him over Drew Lock at QB in 2021. Their running back core of Melvin Gordon and rookie Javonte Williams looked great, and their wide receiver core, despite losing Jerry Jeudy was performing admirably. Also, Noah Fant and Albert Okwuegbunam had played extremely well at the tight end spot through the first three games.
Not to mention, their entire defense was playing at a high level. Their defensive line was winning the battle in the trenches against the opposing offensive lines, stopping the run and their linebackers were getting constant pressure on opposing QBs. Their secondary played very well, including rookie cornerback Pat Surtain, who emerged as one of Denver’s best corners.
Despite the 3-0 start, a lot of people criticized the Broncos as a result of playing weak teams and therefore having an inflated record. And they were right… sort of.
In a league like the NFL, it is hard to win a game. So, a win is a win, regardless of who is put in front of you. Also, with all the upsets we’ve seen so far this season, none of those three games were ‘freebies’. But did the Broncos deserve to be 3-4 after week 7? The answer is yes.
However, then the Broncos went on a four-game losing streak, thanks in part to starting games very slowly on offense, poor offensive play and lack of an ability to convert in the red zone, poor coaching on both sides of the ball, defensive struggles against the pass one week, and against the run in the next week, and of course, they were hit very hard by the injury bug.
In week four, after taking a 7-0 lead, they gave up 23 unanswered points to Lamar Jackson and the Ravens. The Broncos virtually took away the run from Baltimore, which was their biggest strength, however, Jackson proved he can win games with his arm, gashing the Broncos’ supposedly string secondary for 316 passing yards and a TD.
In week five, they started out slow, scoring only six points in the first half against the Pittsburgh Steelers. They played poorly defensively, could not stop the run, and gave up deep touchdowns to Diontae Johnson and Chase Claypool. Their offense didn’t show up until the fourth quarter, where they scored 13 points. However, it proved to be too little too late as Bridgewater threw his first interception of the season on the game’s last play while trying to tie up the game.
In week six, the Broncos were set to play a Los Vegas Raiders team that just dismissed head coach John Gruden. This is a game that the Broncos should have capitalized on to improve to 4-2, but exactly the opposite of that happened. The Broncos had another very slow start, only scoring seven points in the first half and only 10 through three quarters. Josh Jacobs and Kenyan Drake contributed in both the run and pass game and Derek Carr lit up Denver’s secondary. Denver’s offense didn’t show up until the fourth quarter, where they scored 14 points in garbage time. Denver fell to 3-3.
In week seven, they were set to play against the Cleveland Browns - who were without Nick Chubb, Kareem Hunt, and Baker Mayfield - and Broncos Country looked to have a pretty good chance of winning to improve to 4-3. However, the Broncos started slow again, a common theme, and were shut out in the first half. They allowed Cleveland led by Case Keenum at QB to score on their first drive, but the Browns only scored three more points to end the half up 10-0. The Broncos outscored the Browns 14-7 in the second half, but it wasn’t enough. The Browns’ third-string running back D’Ernest Johnson tore up the Broncos’ normally stout run defense on the ground, gaining 146 yards, a touchdown, and the game-sealing first down. The Broncos didn’t run the ball as much as they should’ve which led to numerous 3&outs.
So after starting the season 3-0 atop the AFC West and AFC, they found themselves at 3-4 in the basement of the AFC West after losing four consecutive games. Were the critics correct?
In week eight, they played the Washington Football Team who has a pretty special defense and an underrated offense led by Taylor Heinecke. In a game where it seemed that the 30-yard line cursed both offenses and where both teams tried their best to give the win to the other team, the Broncos finally came out on top. The Broncos took a 10-3 lead into halftime, their first halftime lead since their 26-0 week three win against the Jets. The Broncos shut down the run and generated constant pressure against Heinecke, without Von Miller, who was out with an injury. They recorded five sacks and two interceptions and did just enough on offense despite struggling in the red zone to give them a win and improve to 4-4. Melvin Gordon had a rushing and receiving touchdown for the Broncos, he led their offense. However, that final offensive drive was the worst I’ve ever seen and almost cost them the game. Just kneel the ball, Shurmur.
In week nine, the Broncos would face their biggest test yet. Dak Prescott and the Dallas Cowboys, who were entering this matchup 6-1. Even without Prescott, the Cowboys dominated the Vikings in week eight with Cooper Rush starting at QB. But Prescott would play against Denver. In their first game after trading franchise defensive cornerstone in Von Miller, the Broncos’ defense absolutely dominated the Cowboys. They held Ezekiel Elliott to 51 yards and their entire rush attack to 78 yards and shut down their secondary shut down the Cowboys’ elite passing attack, limiting Prescott to roughly 75 yards passing through just over three quarters. The Broncos recorded a handful of sacks against Dallas’ top-tier offensive line, rookie safety Caden Sterns recorded an interception and the Broncos stopped the Cowboys four times on fourth down. The Broncos’ offense also clicked extremely well. Teddy Bridgewater played very well recording 249 passing yards, a beautiful 44-yard TD pass to Tim Patrick, and a rushing TD. Melvin Gordon and Javonte Williams combined for 191 yards rushing and a touchdown, tearing up the Cowboys’ rushing defense. The Broncos shut out the Cowboys for 55 minutes on the road and even held a 30-0 lead with 4:30 minutes left in the game before the Cowboys scored two garbage-time touchdowns to make the score look respectable. Denver’s game against the Cowboys was their best game of the season and one of their best games in the last few years.
In week 10, the Broncos hosted the Philadelphia Eagles at home with a chance to record their second three-game win streak of the season to improve to 6-4 heading into the bye week and complete the sweep of the NFC East, their first sweep of a division since 2015. The Eagles entered the game 3-6, but they had dominated teams on the ground in their last few games. Hurts made a handful of nice, timely throws including a beautiful 36 yard TD pass to rookie Devonta Smith, but the Eagles beat the Broncos using their defense and run game, as they like to do, recording 216 yards on the ground. The Broncos kept it close until about the middle of the third quarter. Then several mistakes killed the Broncos. They got inside the Eagles’ 10-yard line twice and had to settle for field goals both times. One was blocked. The Broncos have to finish drives inside the red zone better. The Broncos struggled in the red-zone scoring a TD on only one trip out of five. Then, after a Justin Simmons pick, down 20-13, Gordon fumbled on what would have been a fourth-down conversion which would have given the Broncos a fresh set of downs to try to tie the game, Darius Slay picked up a fumble and took it 82 yards to the house, which essentially sealed the game. The Broncos are now 2-3 at home.
So far this season, the Broncos win games when they stick to running the ball, when their defenses generates pressure on opposing QBs, when they limit their own mistakes, penalties, and turnovers, when their defense forces opponents to turn the ball over, and when they get leads in games. They lose games when they turn the ball over, abandon the run game, fail to convert for touchdowns in the red zone, when they start slowly on offense, make mistakes, and when Fangio/Shurmur coach poorly.
So, entering the bye week, the Broncos find themselves 5-5 and last in the AFC West. They are only one game back of the Kansas City Chiefs, who lead the division at 6-4. This season is not over yet for the Broncos. They have five of their remaining seven games against AFC West opponents and therefore still control their own destiny. Those games are all winnable if they play as they did against Dallas, limit mistakes, and trade field goals for touchdowns. Their other two games are against the Cincinnati Bengals and the Detroit Lions, both of which are winnable.
Head coach Vic Fangio, and the entire coaching staff - who are facing a lot of criticism for inconsistency - still have a lot to prove to save their jobs and potentially earn the Broncos a playoff spot, which they are still in the hunt for. In addition, they have a roster full of players who are hungry to make the playoffs for the first time in their career and end the Broncos five year playoff drought. The only player on the team from their Super Bowl 50 win in 2016 - the last time they made the playoffs - is kicker Brandon McManus.
With a lot of motivation to make the playoffs, and save jobs in Denver, I predict that the Denver Broncos will pull it together and go 5-2 in their final seven games, finishing 10-7, clinching the seventh seed. They will beat the Lions and the Bengals and split with the Chargers, Raiders, and Chiefs. However, this is a best-case scenario. I can see this team going 3-4 or worse in the final seven games if the coaching and play calling doesn’t improve.
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