Adamo Marinelli
September 8, 2021
With the opening game of the 2021 season less than a week away, it is time to predict which teams will win their division and what the seeding will be in the AFC and NFC playoffs.
In the AFC East, the Buffalo Bills are the only true contenders to win the division. The Jets are still in a rebuilding phase, even with their new gunslinger Zach Wilson, their new head coach, and the weapons they have around Wilson, like Corey Davis who is a threat. Their defense also isn’t great. They lack talent at several positions defensively and have multiple injuries. The Patriots are moving forward with Mac Jones as their starting quarterback. They added some talent to a very limited wide receiving core like wide receivers Kendrick Bourne and Nelson Agholor and tight end Hunter Henry, but those guys will likely not be enough to push the Patriots over the Bills. Their running back core and offensive line are decent. Also, all of the defensive players that opted out last year will be back this season and they added some additional talent to their defense like linebacker Matthew Judon and defensive end Montravius Adams. However, this is a middle-of-the-pack defense at best that is facing many injuries, like cornerback Stefon Gilmore. It will not have enough to win the division. But they will remain competitive under Bill Belichick, who always finds a way to win. The Dolphins - who have an excellent defense, a talented group of wide receivers and running backs, a good offensive line, and a top 15 defense - are better than the Patriots and Jets and are a few pieces away from contending for a division title, but with the uncertainty behind QB Tua Tagovailoa, the Dolphins won’t win the division. For now, the honour belongs to the Bills - who went 13-3 last season and only look more dangerous this season. Their passing attack is excellent, their defense is elite and Josh Allen is only getting better. The only question is their running game, but Devin Singletary has the talent and the offensive line to be a top 15 running back in the NFL.
In the AFC North, the division can go to either the Pittsburgh Steelers, the Baltimore Ravens, or the Cleveland Browns. The Cincinnati Bengals got their franchise quarterback back from injury and drafted several skill players on offense and defense to fill some major holes in their roster, however, their offensive line is still a major problem and their defense is a subpar unit. Instead of drafting an offensive lineman in the first round of the last draft, they took wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase, who is talented but struggled immensely in preseason games. They could shock a lot of people this year and make a surprise run, but I believe that they will need a few more years before they can compete for the division. The Pittsburgh Steelers have an excellent defense, - specifically, their front seven led by T.J Watt -, they drafted arguably the best running back in last year’s class to help their offense avoid being a one-dimensional unit, and still have one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL, despite his struggles and injuries in recent years. Finally, Mike Tomlin has never had a losing season as a head coach. However, the Steelers’ offensive line is still underwhelming - you can’t run the ball if you can’t block - the secondary is middle of the pack and they have the toughest schedule in the NFL this season. They will not win the division. The Ravens and Browns are both loaded with talent on both sides of the ball. The Browns added some big names on defense in both free agency and the draft to get younger and faster. Baker Mayfield is only getting better after leading his team to a playoff win last season. The Browns also have one of the best run games in the NFL with Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt and Odell Beckham Jr. is back from injury. The Ravens have a top 10 overall defense and an explosive young QB in Lamar Jackson who can beat you with his arms and his legs. They also have a lot of talent around Jackson and only added more in the offseason. Their offensive line is very stable too, which will give Jackson time to throw and move the ball downfield. However, I believe the Browns win the AFC North on a tiebreaker with the Ravens.
In the AFC West, the Chiefs are still the favourites to win, but all three other teams are making significant strides to catch up with Patrick Mahomes and company. The Denver Broncos have one of the best defenses in the league and are loaded at defensive line, at linebacker, and in the secondary. They have a lot of weapons at skill positions on offense, at wide receiver, running back, and tight end. Their offensive line is not great, but not bad and their quarterback battle was won by Teddy Bridgewater. He is not an elite quarterback by any means and his touchdown ceiling isn’t super high, but he doesn’t make many mistakes - which has been the issue at QB in Denver for a while. Drew Lock has potential but just makes too many mistakes forcing the ball downfield. The Los Angeles Chargers have found their franchise QB in Justin Herbert and his talent, decision-making, athleticism, and poise make him look like a 10-year veteran. They improved their offensive line in the draft and Keenan Allen and Austin Ekeler are dangerous at receiver and running back. They also hired Brandon Staley, a talented new coach as well, which will propel them upwards after years of disappointment under Anthony Lynn. Their defense is solid, but it will hold them back this season as they lack depth at pass rusher, linebacker, and in the secondary. They too, will not be able to keep up with the Chiefs. The Las Vegas Raiders are another team that despite having talent has underperformed the last few seasons. They have a handful of skill players on offense to aid Derek Carr, like Henry Ruggs, Josh Jacobs, and Darren Waller at tight end. However, behind Ruggs, John Brown is 30 years old coming off an injury and the others are irreplaceable. Also, the Raiders are playing in a very tough division and are arguably the worst of the four teams on paper. Finally, their defense is trending downwards, and getting older. Gruden faces immense pressure to get a winning season after recording two losing seasons and one season at .500%. The Chiefs, after a disappointing blowout Super Bowl loss, only improved their secondary, their run defense, their pass rush, and their offensive line in the offseason. Patrick Mahomes is still incredibly talented and this team is loaded with weapons all over the place on offense. Andy Reid is still a top 5 coach in the NFL and this team is extremely difficult to stop. Chiefs will take the division for another year with relative ease and finish just behind the Bills in the playoff picture. Next season, it may not be as easy for the Chiefs to win the division.
In the AFC South, it is a race between the Indianapolis Colts and the Tennessee Titans. The Texans have arguably the worst roster in the entire league and may not even have Deshaun Watson under center considering his off-field legal issues. The Jacksonville Jaguars have a bright future with quarterback Trevor Lawrence and head coach Urban Meyer, but will not be strong enough to compete for a division title this season. Meyer is unproven as a coach in the NFL despite all his college success. Also, Lawrence as good as he is will have a hard time behind the lackluster offensive line, and rookie running back Travis Etienne is out for the year with an injury. Of course, they still have the reliable James Robinson but every weapon lost hurts in Jacksonville. The Titans’ offense will be looking stronger than ever, with Derrick Henry coming off a 2000+ rush yards season where he recorded 17 touchdowns. They also have Ryan Tannehill, a very underrated and talented QB, throwing the ball to A.J Brown and Julio Jones, two very dangerous wide receivers. Jones automatically puts the Titans into the conversation of teams who can contend for the Super Bowl. The only concern for the Titans is if Tannehill gets injured - he has a long history of injuries - they don’t really have a backup to take his spot. They are also in a tough division with Indianapolis and their defense is suspect in some areas. The Colts also look very good with a spectacular defense, a top 5 offensive line, and a decent group of skill players including running back Nyheim Hines. Carson Wentz, the new quarterback in Indy was supposed to miss most of the season after surgery but now looks ready for week one. He is a great quarterback with a lot of potential and a high ceiling. He has a great roster around him and is working with Frank Reich, the coach responsible for his miraculous 2017 year in Philadelphia. With the roster around him and his coach, he will revert back to prime form and lead the Colts to a division win finishing in front of the Titans with a tiebreaker.
The NFC East is still the worst division in the NFL despite having the most combined Super Bowl victories. The Eagles are a complete mess right now. They are projected to have one of the worst records in the NFC. They have a lot of weak spots on their roster, are dealing with some injuries, and have a lot to prove under Nick Sirianni - their new head coach - and Jalen Hurts, their young, but athletic quarterback. They addressed their receiver core by drafting Heisman trophy winner Devonta Smith, but their secondary is still questionable and their offensive line is mediocre due to injuries and some retirements. But their pass rush and defensive line are pretty talented units. They won’t make the playoffs, but they will win 6-7 games. The Cowboys have a great offense that can score at will, led by Dak Prescott, Amari Cooper, and Ezekiel Elliott but their defense, especially their secondary, is still one of the worst units in the league. Even with their offense producing at a high level like at the beginning of last year, they won’t win over 10-11 games if their defense can’t make a stop. They didn’t address their secondary enough in the offseason to make a significant improvement. However, they did address their pash rush - which should help their secondary a bit - and their offensive and defensive lines are still good. The Giants have a top 15 defense with a good pass rush and an even better secondary but Daniel Jones is likely not the long-term answer at quarterback. Offensive coordinator Jason Garrett isn’t ideal for a team contending to make the playoffs. Also, running back Saquan Barkley is back from an injury, behind an abysmal offensive line and how effective he will be is still unknown. I believe the Football Team will win the NFC East. They have a great core of skill players like wide receiver Terry Mclaurin and running back Antonio Gibson, two young players that excelled last season; a spectacular defense, led by defensive end Chase Young; and a good offensive line. Under QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, their ceiling is a division win and a playoff game, but with a franchise QB, it could be even higher.
The NFC North will more or less belong to the Green Bay Packers for the third year in a row. The Detroit Lions have a new head coach in Dan Campbell, who spoke aggressively about his team’s expectations in his introductory press conferences. Dan Campbell is very charismatic, but will he be able to win consistently in the NFL is the question. The Lions have a lot of holes on their roster, they lost Kenny Golladay to the Giants, and going from Matt Stafford to Jared Goff is a huge downgrade. The Lions’ secondary is lackluster, and they don’t have much of a pass rush either. Losing Matt Prater, one of the best kickers in the league hurts but they have a well-rounded coaching staff to mentor their young roster. Finally, they have a pretty favorable schedule and they have a good offensive line to run behind and open up the passing game. However, I believe the Lions finish with only 3-4 wins in a learning season for players and coaches. The Bears are another team that will be around .500%. They will likely be starting Justin Fields after moving on from Mitchell Trubisky. Even if they don’t start Fields, Andy Dalton is a better choice than Trubisky. They have a great core of wide receivers led by Allen Robinson and Marquise Goodwin and a good backfield with Tarik Cohen and David Montgomery. Their defense, specifically their pass rush is strong with guys like Khalil Mack and Roquan Smith. Their secondary is where the Bears lack, especially at cornerback, but their safeties aren’t exactly elite either. Combine that with a tough schedule and the fact that the Bears have one division win in 10 years, their ceiling is a wild card spot. The Vikings do have an improved defense this season, a great offensive line, one of the best running backs in the league in Dalvin Cook, and an elite wide receiver duo with Adam Theilen and Justin Jefferson. The question is whether Kirk Cousins can carry this team to relevance. They should be able to keep up with the Packers for the division title but will fall short of a division win. The Packers will be able to win the division using the same formula they used in the previous two seasons. Aaron Rodgers will have another career year despite management not drafting any wide receivers in the last few drafts to help him out. Davante Adams will pick up where he left off, Aaron Jones will have success running the ball behind the Packers’ excellent offensive line to help open up the passing game from Rodgers. The Packers are well-coached and have a lot of talent on their roster. Finally, the Packers’ defense, especially their secondary will exceed expectations. Their run defense was worse than their secondary last season, but based on their moves this offseason, it is trending in the right direction. They look like a top seed in the NFC in what could be Rodgers’ ‘last dance’.
In the NFC West, we will be treated to a four-way race this season. All four teams can win the division if they stay healthy. The Arizona Cardinals led by their athletic QB Kyler Murray have a high ceiling. Murray was fantastic in his rookie season and is only going to get better. All-star wide receiver Deandre Hopkins and Christian Kirk lead a group of skilled wide receivers and James Conner and Chase Edmund will make a good duo in the backfield. Their defense is slightly better than it was last season, where it was a top 10 unit in defensive efficiency. Kliff Kingsbury, who has faced a lot of criticism has the weapons to make a playoff push, whether he can lead his team to the playoffs is another question. The Seattle Seahawks started last season as one of the best offenses in the league and Russell Wilson was in the MVP competition as one of the best QBs for the first half of the season. Their defense, especially the secondary suffered in the first half of the season. They were close to the top of the league in both pass and rush yards given up. For the second half of the season, their defense improved drastically but their high-powered offense slowed down. They are well-coached under Pete Carroll and have a lot of talent on their roster. If they can put their offense and defense together, they can make a run in the playoffs. The San Fransisco 49ers have been in injury purgatory for the better part of two years after their Super Bowl run in 2019. Last season, they lost Nick Bosa and Dee Ford to season-ending injuries and they lost George Kittle, Jimmy Garoppolo, and Raheem Mostert for significant points of the year. They are basically fully healthy entering this year; everyone that was on IR last year is preparing to start in week one. They are looking very good right now. They have an electrifying new quarterback in Trey Lance, are well-coached under Kyle Shanahan, and brought in veteran center Alex Mack to help improve an offensive line that struggled last season. They still have an elite run game with Raheem Mostert, rookie Trey Sermon and Jeff Wilson Jr. and they have a deep wide receiver room with guys like Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, and George Kittle, one of the best tight ends in the game who gets WR #1 numbers when healthy. Their defense is also very skilled, they were a top 10 unit in both the pass and rush game even with all the injuries. They’ll only be better when healthy. They retained most of the current core and stockpiled more talent in the draft. My only concern is how well Lance will do at the NFL level and how all the players will rebound after injury. This is why I have the Los Angeles Rams winning the division by one game. The Rams have a stellar defense - that was the best in the league last season - with several talented players led by cornerback Jalen Ramsey and defensive tackle Aaron Donald, two superstars at their respective positions. They also made a big splash this season by acquiring Matt Stafford. He is still an above-average QB with a high football IQ, arm strength, and accuracy. The Rams have a great offensive line and a lot of skilled players around Stafford like Robert Woods, Cooper Kupp, Darrell Henderson, and Tyler Higbee. The Rams are extremely well-coached under offensive-minded Sean McVay but have a well-rounded coaching staff that emphasizes the fundamentals. This team has the potential to win the division, and I think they will. The loss of running back Cam Akers hurts a lot though.
Finally, the NFC South will be more or less belong to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. After a Super Bowl win last season, the Bucs managed to bring back all 22 of their starters (11 on offense, 11 on defense) and acquired even more talent through free agency and the draft, like running back Giovanni Bernard. No team has ever brought back all 22 of their starters, so what the Bucs did is simply impressive. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Bucs make it back to the Super Bowl or at least the NFC championship. The Atlanta Falcons are continuing their rebuild and despite having some good pieces - like Calvin Ridley and Deion Jones - they are not good enough to win the division. The Saints in the post Drew Brees era will also struggle to find consistency. Michael Thomas is on the physically unable to perform (PUP) list to start the season and neither Taysom Hill nor Jameis Winston is a long-term option at QB. However, Alvin Kamara will find some success behind a relatively stable offensive line and their defense is good enough to lead them to 8-9 wins. Finally, the Carolina Panthers, despite having a generational talent in Christian McCaffrey do not have much else to be happy about. Quarterback Sam Darnold is still young and has the potential to succeed in a new offense especially with former teammate Robby Anderson. But it is not guaranteed Darnold will find success in Carolina. They addressed their secondary - which was a major issue in 2020 - by drafting CB Jaycee Horn, which will help but will not fix their issues. They are also in a tough division with the reigning Super Bowl Champions. Finally, Matt Rhule, though charismatic is 5-11 in the NFL as a head coach, which isn’t great but understandable for a first-year HC. They also need help at the tight end position and there may be some issues at center if Matt Paradis’ play continues to decline. They have a bright future but will have a tough year in 2021.
So, according to my predictions, the AFC seeding will look like this:
Bills 14-3
Chiefs 13-4
Browns 11-6
Colts 11-6
Ravens 11-6 (Browns have tiebreaker)
Titans 11-6 (Colts have tiebreaker)
Broncos 10-7 (tiebreaker over Chargers)
The NFC seeding will look like this:
Bucs 14-3
Packers 13-4
Rams 12-5
Football Team 10-7
49ers 11-6
Seahawks 10-7
Vikings 10-7
Anything can happen on any given Sunday and any team can overachieve and underachieve their expectations. By the end of this season, these predictions could be completely wrong, but it’s just how I see the standings playing out. Regardless, NFL football is back, baby! It's time to celebrate.
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