V.S.
Kansas City Chiefs (14-2) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (11-5)
Sunday, February 7, 2021
Raymond James Stadium
Tampa Bay, Florida
6:30 pm ET
Tampa Bay: The Tampa Bay Buccaneers become the first team in NFL history to host a Super Bowl in their home stadium after their impressive defensive performance propelled them to victory over the NFC leading Green Bay Packers in the NFC title game.
The Chiefs, after not appearing in a Super Bowl for 50 years, are set to play in back-to-back Super Bowls and have their sights set on becoming the eighth team to win back-to-back Super Bowls in NFL history.
The Chiefs do have a lot of talent on their roster and one of the best coaches in the NFL but looked rather questionable and somewhat inconsistent in the second half of the season. From week nine until week 16, they won all their games - which is impressive - by a margin of only seven or fewer points.
For as dominant an offense as they normally are, many were not quick to guarantee the Chiefs would be back in the Super Bowl for the second straight year with other teams in the AFC like Cleveland, Buffalo, and Baltimore.
However, they were able to secure the AFC’s first seed, squeak past the Browns in the divisional round after Mahomes was ruled out with a concussion in the third quarter and they outmuscled the Bills defensively in the AFC championship.
Their defense is not the best, but is good situationally, ranking top 10 in points allowed, interceptions, and takeaways. However, they are not the best at rushing the passer finishing 19th in sacks and were bottom half in the league in pass yards and pass TDs allowed. They are 11th worst in rush yards allowed but kept opposing running backs out the endzone well, finishing 10th best.
Tyran Mathieu is one of the best safeties in the league and he will need to have a good game defensively to help limit Brady and the Buccaneers' offense.
On the other side of the ball, the Chiefs have one of the best offenses in the NFL and a multitude of weapons in both the run and pass game. They are much better in the passing game, however.
They lead the league in pass yards, rank third in pass TDs, sixth in points scored, and first in total yards. In the run game, they were less impressive finishing 16th in yards and bottom 10 in the league in rush TDs.
Regardless, the Chiefs are tough for any defense. If your team drops too many guys into coverage, the Chiefs will run the ball - they are not the best running team, but they can run the ball well if needed. If you load the box to stop the run and play zone defense, Mahomes will pass the ball to one of his receivers who will find a hole in the zone, or to the reliable Travis Kelce - who always seems to be wide open.
Opposing defenses need to apply constant pressure on Mahomes, by blitzing with four or five guys to have enough players to play man defense with safety help too. They need to contain Mahomes, keeping him in the pocket, to avoid letting him scramble to buy his receivers time.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have a lot of talent on offense and defense too, which has helped them get to the Super Bowl.
They started the year 6-2, lost three of the next four games - including losing 27-24 to the Chiefs in week 12 after being torched by Tyreek Hill in the first quarter - to fall to 7-5. They have won seven straight games; four in a row to finish the season 11-5, then proceeded to beat the Washington Football Team in the wild card game, beat the Saints - who they lost to twice in the regular season - in the divisional round after forcing four turnovers and beat the Packers in a great defensive performance in the NFC title game.
They have several weapons that Tom Brady can pass to, including Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Rob Gronkowski, Cameron Brate, and Scotty Miller. The Bucs ranked third in the league in points scored, second in pass yards, second in pass TDs. However, they finished bottom five in the league in rush yards but can get into the endzone on the ground finishing top 15 in rush TDs.
Tom Brady has been very efficient in the red zone and has had many pass attempts of over 20+ yards this season, and been quite successful in that area.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have a tremendous defense. They are the best rush defense in the NFL allowing the fewest rush yards and TDs. They are slightly worse against the pass, finishing 21st in pass yards and 20th in pass TDs allowed. They finished the season allowing the 13th most points in the league.
The Bucs do have the advantage in sacks, finishing with the fourth-most sacks in the league compared to the Chiefs at 19 and they have created more turnovers on defense, ranking fifth best in takeaways; the Chiefs were 10th best.
Mahomes is elusive and speedy, so he is hard to sack. But, left tackle Eric Fisher will miss the Super Bowl with an injury, so the Bucs will try to use that to their advantage. If Jason Pierre Paul and Devin White have a good of a game as they did in the NFC championship game generating pressure and sacks, the Chiefs might have to use some extra tight end formations to help block.
Both offenses are very good, however, the Chiefs have the slight advantage. Both defenses are very good, however, the Bucs have the slight advantage. Whichever team makes the most defensive plays and generates the more turnovers will win this game.
For the Chiefs, the keys to victory are to use blocking schemes with extra tight ends to make up for the loss of Eric Fisher and to avoid letting Mahomes be under constant pressure. They must also use the run game to open up the passing game and vice versa. Basically, if the Bucs have a lot of guys up front, throw the ball downfield, if they have a lot of guys playing coverage, run the ball. Also, the Chiefs need to generate pressure on Tom Brady without blitzing and that starts with Chris Jones. If they can get pressure without blitzing, they can double cover the Bucs’ best offensive weapons like Mike Evans and Rob Gronkowski, this will help out their secondary and make their lives easier. Also, the secondary has to play lights out. Like I said, whichever defense gets the most takeaways will win this game. The Chiefs secondary is not the best but it excels in the spotlight. It needs to play well tomorrow night. Also, the Chiefs are sneaky good with trick plays, they need to find an appropriate time to run a trick play for big yardage or take some shots downfield with Hill.
For the Bucs, the keys to victory include protecting Tom Brady from the Chiefs’ pass rush, which can be pretty dangerous. This will give Brady time to find open receivers downfield; they need to attack the Chiefs’ secondary because they have skilled players to do it. Someone will always be open. Also, the running backs need to be effective for the Bucs to open up the Chiefs’ secondary. Most importantly, the Buccaneers cannot squander any offensive possessions and must trade field goals for touchdowns, because we know the Chiefs can score at will. They also cannot turn the ball over, like they did several times against the Packers. Unlike the Packers, the Chiefs can make you pay. Finally, they need to generate pressure without blitzing five or more guys, their four-man defensive line must generate pressure on its own or with one other linebacker, to keep Mahomes in the pocket and to allow the Bucs to play man coverage - even perhaps double cover Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce - with safety help.
This game will be extremely entertaining and it will be a close game because both teams are very talented on offense and defense. However, I believe the Bucs’ secondary will make one more play defensively than the Chiefs - whether it be a sack or an interception - and the Bucs will win a close, high-scoring game 35-32.
Will Brady win his seventh Super Bowl ring and solidify his legacy as the best QB to ever play the game or will Mahomes and the Chiefs run it back? Let me know what you think. Tune in to Super Bowl 55 tomorrow night at 6:30 EST to find out.
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