By: Adamo Marinelli
Dec. 19, 2020
The Denver Broncos (5-8) are six-point underdogs against the Buffalo Bills (10-3), who are riding a three-game win streak and can clinch their first AFC East title since 1995. The total points for this game is set at 49 points.
The Denver Broncos have only three healthy cornerbacks ahead of today’s game: Will Parks, De’Vante Bausby, and Michael Ojemudia, a rookie out of Iowa.
Bills’ QB Josh Allen has developed into an elite talent in the third year of his career and is considered to be in the MVP race this season. My MVP is Aaron Rodgers but Allen has been excellent this year.
On top of that, the Bills have one of the best receiving cores in the league, led by Stefon Diggs, John Brown, and Cole Beasly. In addition, rookie Gabriel Davis is having an outstanding rookie season, and Dawson Knox, their tight end has been reliable all year.
With A.J. Bouye suspended and injuries to Bryce Callahan, Duke Dawson, Essang Bassey, and Kevin Tolliver II, the Broncos will need to play a lot of nickel and dime defenses and will need a lot of help from their safeties to contain a red-hot target in Diggs who recorded 10 catches for 130 yards and one TD in their week 14 win over the Steelers.
I’d suspect a lot of zone schemes, but with Allen being an extremely mobile QB, the Broncos need to bring a lot of pressure to help out the secondary and force the ball out of Allen’s hands quickly.
However, the Broncos would need to blitz at least five or six guys if they want to apply adequate pressure to Allen, meaning that would leave man to man matchups in the secondary. The Broncos do have some veterans in their secondary, like all-pro safety Justin Simmons, but it also has a lot of youth and inexperience. Man coverage could be an advantage for the Bills.
Another one of Allen’s strengths - in addition to his strong arm and scrambling ability is his ability to throw crossbody and/or across the field. He has the ability to lead everyone to one side and then throw the ball across the field to an open target. This is something the Broncos’ coaching staff will have to prepare for. They will also have to contain Allen and not let him run wild.
On the other side of the ball, Drew Lock and the offense had their best game of the season. Lock completed 21/27 passes for 280 yards, four TDs, and zero INTs, for a rating of 149.5, the third-highest single-game rating in team history. Drew Lock will need to have another flawless game and the Broncos’ offensive line needs to win their matchups against a gritty, tough Bills defensive line if they want a chance to win.
Like the Broncos, the Bills’ defense is significantly better against the pass than against the run. Both teams have played well against the pass all season long; the Bills do have the better secondary though, especially with all the Broncos’ injuries. Both teams have struggled against the run as of late, so it should be a good game for the running backs on both teams. Whatever team finds success with the run, their pass game will open up. The Broncos need to run the ball with Gordon and Lindsay a lot today to open up play action, which Lock excels at.
Another thing for the Broncos, their kicker Brandon McManus, who has been having an incredible year was ruled out of this game after being in close contact with someone who later tested positive for COVID-19. I don’t know how efficient Taylor Russolino, their replacement kicker will be, so I expect Vic Fangio and Pat Shurmur to elect to go for it more on short fourth downs in Bills’ territory today.
This will be an exciting game to watch, no matter who wins.
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