VS
Kansas City Chiefs vs. San Francisco 49ers
Hard Rock Stadium
Miami, Florida, United States
Sunday, February 2nd, 2019
6:30 pm ET
To end off the NFL’s 100th season, the 2nd seed Kansas City Chiefs who finished 12-4 will be taking on the 1st seed San Francisco 49ers who had a 13-3 season in Super Bowl 54.
This will be the seventh Super Bowl appearance for the 49ers, their first since 2012. They have won 5 of 6 Super Bowls they have been in and look to capture their sixth championship which would tie with the Patriots and Steelers for the most in NFL history.
The Kansas City Chiefs will be heading to their first Super Bowl game since 1969 when they beat the Minnesota Vikings in Super Bowl 4 fifty years ago.
Let’s take a look at how we got to this point in time.
In the wild card round, the Texans capitalized on a quiet Bills’ offense in the second half and QB Deshaun Watson rallied his team back from a 16-0 deficit in the third quarter to win a thriller in overtime, 22-19 after a wonderful elusive play to avoid a sack which set up the game-winning field goal.
The Patriots were upset 20-13 by the Titans, particularly stellar abilities of RB Derrick Henry who had 182 yards and two touchdowns on the ground and the Titans defense capitalized on a deflated Patriots’ offense that couldn’t keep drives alive because they had too many mistakes.
The 6th seed Vikings also had a stellar game especially on defense, given their secondary was depleted with injuries which caused them to readjust their formations. Their defense held the Saints in check on the ground and through the air and they won a thriller in overtime on a play where both the wide receiver and defensive back were battling with their hands.
The next game was a battle of two injured teams. The depleted Seahawks against the even more depleted Eagles. The game was close for the most part, but when Carson Wentz exited the game with a head injury, Josh McCown was unable to take the Eagles to the endzone in a 17-9 loss. The Seahawks defense had 7 sacks in the win.
In the divisional round, the Titans weren’t done with their miraculous season just yet. The Titans came in with another run-heavy game plan and it worked. Derrick Henry rushed for over 180 yards in his second career playoff game and third straight game and had the only touchdown pass. The Titans got up early and kept their foot on the gas. The Ravens made many mistakes and couldn’t make a comeback.
Minnesota managed to beat the Saints, a Super Bowl favorite but was outright overpowered by San Francisco. The Vikings offensive line was no match for the elite 49ers defensive line and Dalvin Cook was eliminated from the game plan, rushing for only 18 yards. 49ers dominated in a 27-10 game.
After falling behind 24-0 early in the second quarter to the Houston Texans, the Chiefs and their lifeless offense looked ready to roll-over and die. However, the lackluster play-calling abilities of Texans’ coach Bill O’Brien were a factor in this game. They faked a punt on their own 31-yard line. The Chiefs proceeded to score 41 unanswered points to win a game.
Finally, the Green Bay Packers were able to use a well-balanced offensive game on the ground and through the air and they took a 17-3 lead into halftime. QB Aaron Rodgers had 243 yards and 2 TDs, RB Aaron Jones had 62 yards and 2 rushing TDs. The depleted Seahawks fought their way back scoring 20 2nd half points but lost 28-23 on a catch that was supposedly enough for a 1st down.
In the conference championship games, the Titans led by 10 points on two different occasions: they were up 10-0 and 17-7. Despite this, they were not able to do what they do best, which is running the ball. RB Derrick Henry was shut down, only rushing for 69 yards and one TD, only ⅓ of last week’s output. Credit to the Chiefs’ run defense who played well despite a bad regular season. Mahomes had 3 pass TD and a rush TD in another comeback win in the playoffs.
Green Bay’s excellent first season under new head coach Matt LaFleur ended short of expectations. They went 13-3 this year after going 6-9-1 last year, thanks to an improved defense and a career year for Aaron Jones. However, the 49ers, particularly RB Raheem Mostert torched the Packers’ run defense - which looked like an open gate - with 220 rush yards and 4 rushing TDs, the most in playoff history. This game was never close, the 49ers won 37-20.
And so, Super Bowl 54 will have a battle between the Chiefs' 2nd best offense - behind Baltimore - and the 49ers who have the best defense in the NFL.
As of today, January 30th, the Chiefs are 1.5 point favorites to win with an over-under of 54.5. If the Chiefs cover the spread, the money line is -120. If the 49ers cover the spread, the money line is even.
The Chiefs were heavy Super Bowl favorites before this season started along with the Patriots, Rams and the Saints. That claim made sense after the MVP caliber year Mahomes had in 2018, his first full year as a starter. In 2018, Mahomes and the entire offense was clicking and Mahomes threw for 50 TDs and 5000 yards. This year is production decreased significantly. He threw for 4031 yards and only 26 TDs, but their receiver core was simply too fast and no-one could cover Travis Kelce, which allowed their offense to have a big play and quick-strike aspect that hurt many opponents. Their defense, both in the run and pass game was still questionable like it has been for almost a decade, but better play late in the season helped the Chiefs improve defensively, particularly in the secondary with the play of Tyrann Matthieu. They still weren’t elite, however. An injury to QB Patrick Mahomes had their fans a little worried but he returned in week 10 after only missing two games to help guide the Chiefs to a first-round bye.
The 49ers entered the campaign with +4000 odds to win the Super Bowl after an injury to their QB Jimmy Garaopolo led to a disappointing 4-12 record. This season, they obtained the first seed in the NFC after cruising to 13 wins. Improving by 9 wins in a single season is unheard of in the NFL but the 49ers were able to do it with a healthy roster and a team that knew how to close out close games. Their offense under Jimmy Garopolo was pretty good and they had a reliable pass attack with weapons like George Kittle, one of the best tight ends in the game; Kendrick Bourne and rookie Deebo Samuel. Their trade deadline addition of Emmanuel Sanders really added to their depth and speed at wide receiver and made the unit a scary one. Their run game proved effective too with the triple-headed monster in Raheem Mostert, Matt Breida and Tevin Coleman. One thing the lackluster 2018 season gave the 49ers was a top 5 pick to draft an all-star defensive end in Nick Bosa. He solidified an already dominant 49ers defensive line - good at stopping the run and getting to the QB - that had 57 sacks, 9 of which in the playoffs, who created 27 turnovers and who gave up the second-fewest total yards allowed.
In terms of total offense, the Chiefs are ranked 6th overall with 6,067 yards and the 49ers are ranked 4th overall with 6,097 yards.
Both quarterbacks are very young, Mahomes is 24 years old, Garoppolo is 28 years old, and both signal callers have a plethora of weapons to pass the ball to. The Chiefs have several speedy wide receivers like Tyreek Hill, Sammy Watkins, and Mecole Hardman and Travis Kelce, an elite pass-catching tight end. The Niners have plenty of experience at receiver with veteran targets like Emmanuel Sanders and Kendrick Bourne and speedy elusive youngsters like Deebo Samuel. The 49ers also have George Kittle, another one of the elite tight ends in the game. The Chiefs have the advantage in the receiving game, however, ranking 5th in the NFL with 4,498 yards and 30 passing TDs. Whereas, the 49ers rank 13th in the league with 3,792 yards and 28 passing TDs. In the playoffs, the Chiefs have the best passing attack with 608 yards, 8 TDs, and 0 INTs compared to the 49ers who rank dead last with 191 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT. This clearly shows the 49ers are a rushing team, Chiefs are a passing team. Despite the lack of production from the passing game in terms of TDs and yards they are still capable of big plays and can burn a team through the air. Chiefs have the advantage in the passing game.
In the rushing game, the 49ers have a clear advantage. The 49ers finished 2nd in the league, only behind the Baltimore Ravens with an astounding team total of 2,305 yards on the ground equating to 144.1 rush yards per game. Not only that, but the 49ers are a physical team when running the football and their offensive line is top 5 in the league in creating holes to run through. Each of their 3 running backs has a different style of running the ball and they are able to tire out defenses very easily with long, meticulous drives controlling the line of scrimmage. On the other hand, the Chiefs are 10th worst when running the ball with only 1569 yards on the ground. They are a very pass-heavy team that relies on quick-strike drives. In the playoffs, the 49ers have the most rush TDs with 6 and the most yards with 471, which is 235.5 per game compared to the 7th best Chiefs with 4 rush TDs and only 230 rush yards and 115 per game. The 49ers are a physical team that controls the clock and line of scrimmage and hurts you with its strong run game. The 49ers have the advantage in the run game.
In regards to total defense, the 49ers have the advantage. They are the 2nd best in the league, only giving up 4,509 yards and 310 points. The Chiefs are the 17th best total defense giving up 5,594 yards and 308 points.
Against the run, the 49ers are 17th best in the league, giving up only 1802 yards and 11 TDs. The Chiefs are 6th worst in the league, giving up 2051 rush yards and 14 rushing TDs. Both these teams are not in the top half in the league, but the real difference in this category is the 49ers defensive line is much better than the Chiefs’ defensive line. Sure, the Chiefs added Frank Clark and have veteran Chris Jones but the 49ers have the best defensive line in the league with players like DeForest Buckner, Nick Bosa, Dee Ford, who are skilled at stopping the run and getting to the QB. They have proven they can get after all quarterbacks, even mobile QBs like Mahomes which could help the 49ers in this game. The 49ers were tied for 5th most sacks with 48 in the regular season and have the most in the playoffs so far with 9. They can send power from the outside and inside of the defensive line. The Chiefs are 11th best with 45 sacks and 8 in the playoffs but struggle to generate a pass rush from the inside of the defensive line. The 49ers also forced 9 forced fumbles, the 5th best in the league, Chiefs have forced 6 and are in the bottom half of the league. The 49ers have more forced fumbles than the Chiefs in the regular season and in the playoffs with 7, compared to a mere 2 for the Chiefs.
Against the pass, the 49ers gave up the fewest yards in the league with only 2,707 yards, but they have given up 23 passing TDs and have created 12 interceptions, making them the 5th best secondary in the league. With lockdown cornerbacks like Richard Sherman, Emmanuel Moseley and strong ball-hawk safeties such as Jaquiski Tartt, teams won’t have a lot of luck racking up yards against this team. The Chiefs are the 11th best secondary giving up 3,543 yards but have only given up 21 pass TDs and created 16 interceptions. The 49ers have the advantage in terms of yardage but the Chiefs have given up two fewer TDs and got 4 more interceptions. This is in the regular season, however. In the playoffs, the 49ers gave up the fewest yards per game with 252.5 and the fewest rush yards per game with 41.5. Chiefs were 3rd best in rush yards per game allowed with only 89.5 and are 4th worst in total yards per game allowed with 368.5. The 49ers were 6th best against the pass giving up 211 yards per game whereas the Chiefs were 9th best giving up 279 yards per game. Also, the 49ers have 3 INTs and gave up 3 pass TDs, Chiefs have 0 INTs gave up 4 pass TDs.
Both coaches are good, both have their flaws and both are looking for their 1st Super Bowl championship. Kyle Shanahan was on the losing side of the infamous 28-3 comeback after his Falcons had the 2nd best offense in the league in 2016. Andy Reid has won a lot of football games, the only time he went to a Super Bowl was 15 years ago when his Eagles lost Super Bowl 39 to the Patriots thanks to atrocious game-clock management skills. However, Chiefs’ head coach Andy Reid is the more experienced coach heading into this game, thanks to his long career, having more career wins and playoff wins than Kyle Shanahan who is a relatively new head coach. Coaches are like fine wine, they improve with age. Both are offensive-minded head coaches, and Shanahan has built a strong run game this season whereas Reid built an explosive passing game this season, but overall offensive abilities would favor Reid because he has had a longer career.
The 49ers will win the Super Bowl if they are able to get off to a fast start and build an early lead by controlling the line of scrimmage and the clock with their strong, physical running game. Considering the Chiefs started slow in both of their playoff games - trailing 24-0 to the Texans and 10-0 to the Titans - if the 49ers can build a lead with a running game, the Chiefs don’t have the best defense against the run and the 49ers can run freely all game long, tire the Chiefs’ defense and keep Mahomes and company off the field. As long as the 49ers defense can prevent the Chiefs from connecting on big plays downfield - the Chiefs are known for their quick scoring ability - and force them to take 15/16 play scoring drives, it will take more time off the clock and force the Chiefs to use their lackluster run game to open up the passing game.
The Chiefs will win the Super Bowl if they are able to stop San Francisco’s dominant run game. The 49ers are a run-first team and are dead-last in the passing game in the playoffs. If the Chiefs take away the run game and force Jimmy Garropolo to pass more than 25 times in the game, they will put the onus on the 49ers’ passing game to make big plays. They are able to do that, even against a Chiefs’ secondary that has improved in the second half of the year but are more comfortable running the ball. On offense, if the Chiefs are able to connect on their big plays downfield and score TDs on 3-4 play drives like they did against the Texans, it will play into Mahomes’ strengths and it will
help them wear down the 49ers’ top 10 secondary.
Both of these teams are very good and no matter who wins, this game will be close, but I believe the 49ers will be able to get a strong run game going. The Chiefs did a marvelous job completely removing Derrick Henry from the Titans’ game plan in the AFC Championship. Derrick Henry is the main part of the Titans’ run-heavy game plan and a dominant, quick and physical running back who rushed for over 180 yards in the wild card round and divisional round and averaged 196 rush yards per game in his last 3 games. He is a dominant running back and quick for his size. However, the 49ers have three talented and physical running backs and one of the best and most physical offensive lines in the league that can easily make space to run through. When you put that against a Chiefs’ run defense that is 17th best in the league, it is clear the 49ers will be able to control the clock and the line of scrimmage in this game and keep the Chiefs’ potent passing game off the field. If the 49ers defense can prevent the Chiefs from connecting on deep plays downfield, they should be able to win the game. I am taking the 49ers in a close game 34-28, covering the spread.
Tune in to Super Bowl 54 on TSN, CTV, CBC or your local FOX or CBS network on Sunday, February 2nd, 2020 at 6:30pm ET. The pre-game starts at 1:00pm ET.
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