2018 NFL Playoff Picture and Predictions

By: Adamo Marinelli

December 29th, 2018

    This season has been a very interesting one in the NFL. Many teams we didn’t expect to be in the playoff picture that are in it like the Seahawks and Bears after last year’s 5-11 record and teams we expected to be secured in a playoff spot aren’t there like the Steelers, the Packers, the Eagles, even the Broncos looked like they would get in after their 3 game win streak.  Let’s take a look at the playoff picture.

In the AFC playoff picture, this is what we have after 16 weeks:

1. Kansas City Chiefs, 11-4
2. New England Patriots, 10-5
3. Houston Texans, 10-5
4. Baltimore Ravens, 9-6
5. Los Angeles Chargers, 11-4 WC
6. Indianapolis Colts, 9-6 WC

In the hunt:

7. Tennessee Titans, 9-6
8. Pittsburgh Steelers, 8-6-1

    On Sunday night’s game which sees the Colts battle the Titans, the winner will take the sixth seed in AFC, and the loser will go home. The Chiefs can lock up first seed with a win against the Raiders and a Broncos’ win over the Chargers. The Chargers can get first seed in the AFC if they beat the Broncos and the Chiefs lose to the Raiders. If both the Chiefs and Chargers win, Chiefs get the tiebreaker. With a Patriots win against the Jets and a Texans loss against the Jaguars, the Pats can lock up the AFC’s second seed. With a Pats loss and a Texans win, the Texans grab the second seed. If both teams win, Pats will get the tiebreaker because of the head-to-head win. The Pats can get the first seed with a win, and a loss by the Chiefs and Chargers. If the Ravens win or the Steelers lose, the Ravens will clinch their division, make the playoffs and the Steelers will go home. If the Ravens win and the Steelers win, the Ravens still get in with a better record. If the Steelers beat the Bengals and the Ravens lose to the Browns, Steelers get in; Ravens go home.

In the NFC playoff picture, this is what we have after 16 weeks:

1. New Orleans Saints, 13-2
2. Los Angeles Saints, 12-3
3. Chicago Bears, 11-4
4. Dallas Cowboys, 9-6
5. Seattle Seahawks, 9-6 WC
6. Minnesota Vikings, 8-6-1 WC

In the hunt:

7. Philadelphia Eagles, 8-7

    The NFC is a lot simpler. The New Orleans Saints have clinched the first seed and a first-round bye. The Rams have clinched their division but if they lose to the 49ers and the Bears beat the Vikings, the Bears will take the second seed and a first-round bye because they beat the Rams head to head. Rams would then get the third seed. The Cowboys have locked up their division with a week 16 win against the Buccaneers and have locked up the fourth seed. They will host the Seahawks, who have clinched the fifth seed, or the first wildcard spot on wild-card weekend in the NFL playoffs. Finally, the Vikings currently hold the NFC’s sixth seed, the second and final wildcard spot. If the Vikings beat the Bears, they lock up the final wildcard spot, regardless of whether or not the Eagles beat the Redskins because the Vikings have the tiebreaker over the Eagles with their week 5 win. However, the Bears are a good team and it is uncertain whether Kirk Cousins, Vikings QB, can perform in big games. If the Vikings lose and the Eagles win, the Eagles take the sixth seed and play the Bears in Chicago in the wildcard round. However, depending on whether or not the Rams are destroying the 49ers dictates whether or not the Bears start their starters against Minnesota. If the Rams are beating the 49ers badly at halftime, even if the Bears win, the Rams will maintain second seed, thus they will rest their starters. If it is a close game at the half, the Bears will assume the 49ers will upset the Rams (this is unlikely) and will play their starters. Surely, that plays a role in who gets the sixth seed.

    Come playoff time, I see the playoff seeding staying the exact same as it is now. I think the Chiefs will beat the Raiders and the Chargers will lose to the Broncos, giving the Chiefs first seed and the Chargers the fifth seed. I see the Patriots beating the Jets and the Texans beating the Jaguars but the Patriots maintain the second seed because they hold the tiebreaker over the Texans who get the third seed. I see the Ravens beating the Browns, as Lamar Jackson is playing just as well as Baker Mayfield lately, and regardless of whether the Steelers beat the Bengals, this clinches the division for Baltimore who earns the fourth seed while Pittsburgh is eliminated. I also see the red-hot Indianapolis Colts, led by QB Andrew Luck beat the Titans to earn the sixth seed sending the Titans home, despite Derrick Henry’s amazing season, especially as of late.

    The Saints have already locked up the first seed in the NFC. However, I see the Rams beating the 49ers pretty easily which gives them second seed. This will allow the Bears to rest their starters, making a Minnesota victory over Chicago relatively easily which will give the Bears the third seed and will sneak the 9-6-1 Vikings in as the sixth seed. The fourth seed has already been locked up by Dallas, Seattle has locked up the fifth seed.

    Finally, my playoff predictions and Super Bowl winners. To win a Super Bowl, a team must have an amazing offence, defence, special teams unit and a stellar coaching staff. The last three Super Bowl champions 2017 Eagles, 2016 Patriots and 2015 Broncos checked off all those criteria.

For the playoff picks in the AFC:

    In the wildcard round, the first game sees the Colts visiting the Texans. The Colts have been playing well as of late, especially with Andrew Luck at the helm. Luck has had one of the best seasons in his career this year, with 4,308 yards, 36 TDs and 14 INTs. The season series between these two division rivals are tied at one win each. Wide receiver TY Hilton has also had an amazing year, and tight end Eric Ebron has had a breakthrough year, really getting involved in the offence. The Colts defence is also playing amazing this year, they’ve had one of their better years being middle of the pack or better in all main defensive categories. However, I think the Texans win, even with the injury to Demaryius Thomas and Will Fuller. The Texans offence is too powerful with Deshaun Watson and Deandre Hopkins. RB Lamar Miller does not only rush but he can also catch the football and make plays in the backfield. The Texans also have a complete defence. Their stellar pass rush with J.J. Watt and Jadeveon Clowney, their solid run defence and secondary can lead them to victory with a mediocre offence, the Texans have a great offence.

    The next wildcard game in the AFC sees a rematch of the week 16 game when the Chargers visit the Ravens. Quite frankly, the Chargers are a very complete team having a good offence and defence. But for the past several seasons the Chargers have been ‘all bark but no bite’, this is the first time since 2013 the Chargers made the playoffs because they’d always start strong and choke towards the end of the year or fail to win a big game to get them into a playoff spot. I say this year is no different. The Ravens, with Lamar Jackson who has been playing amazing all season long and with the NFL’s highest-scoring defence takes care of business at home vs LA.

    In the divisional round, we have two rematches: Baltimore visiting Kansas City and Houston visiting New England. In the first AFC divisional round game, we have two mobile quarterbacks in Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes going at it. The two teams also have very good offences, but with confidence, I say the Ravens will win this game. The difference between the Ravens and Chiefs is their defence. Despite the Chiefs run defence and pass rush have been pretty good this year with Justin Houston and Chris Jones, Baltimore’s defence has been better in those two departments. Sure, the Chiefs have 52 sacks, and the Ravens have 43, but the Ravens are the highest scoring defence in the NFL and have more turnovers. Not to mention, the Ravens have way more forced fumbles and fumble recoveries from sacks that lead their offence to score points. Their offence is better under Jackson than Flacco, but it was still great under Flacco. The Ravens lost in heartbreaking fashion to the Chiefs already, they don’t want that to happen again. Not to mention, the Ravens also have a much better secondary. Apart from Eric Berry and maybe Orlando Scandrick, the Chiefs don’t have any playmakers in their secondary and they are not playing with as much confidence as they used to with Marcus Peters. They are one of 10 teams to have a passer rating of over 100 to opposing QBs and a team that averages giving up just over 300 yards per game. Baltimore’s defence, with fewer interceptions, doesn’t give up those huge numbers, that’s what’s helped them win games. And the Chiefs would have fewer sacks and interceptions than the Ravens if their schedule wasn’t so easy. Playing the Bengals, Browns, 49ers, Raiders twice and the Broncos’ beat up offensive line twice early in the season when Keenum threw too many picks, that is the only reason. The Ravens had a tough schedule including playing the Steelers’ amazing o-line twice. Ravens have more elite names on their pass rush unit too. The Chiefs also don’t have a solid running back after losing Kareem Hunt, the Ravens do in Alex Collins; you must run the ball in the cold to win. Collins isn’t the best back, but he is pretty good.

    The next playoff game sees the Houston Texans visiting Gillette Stadium to play the Patriots. I see the Texans winning this game, by 3 to 7 points. Mainly because the Patriots haven’t been playing their best football as of late. Sure, the Patriots handily beat the Bills and Jets in the last two games, however, the Jets and Bills are both mediocre at best with two rookie QBs at the helm. So that doesn’t leave the Patriots in the best light going into the playoffs despite their first-round bye with an 11-5 record, good enough for the AFC’s second seed. Brady’s number’s have deteriorated with age, like expected, however, he has still played really well this season for the most part. Despite having an unstable wide receiver core, with Edelman suspended the first four games, Josh Gordon stepping away from football to focus on mental health issues and Amendola being traded. He started the year better than he finished it, he had 16 TDs and 7 INTs in his first 8 games and 13 TDs and 4 INTs in his final 8 games, but he has played sloppier football and took more risks and made more mistakes he normally doesn’t make (the game-clinching pick against the Steelers). All in all though, he’s had a good season for a 41-year-old, but with several weapons gone on their offence, like Flash and with Gronk being kept in check, along with the Patriots defence playing soft (minus their last two games of the season), I say the Texans control the game this weekend. Even with Demaryius Thomas out with injury, Deandre Hopkins is a threat and feasts against anyone, especially secondaries that are mediocre like New England’s and a mobile QB like Watson can extend plays by scrambling and either keeping the ball and running or throwing the ball downfield. In addition, the Texans have two amazing playmakers on the pass rush unit in Watt and Clowney who led the team to 43, which is tied for 5th in the league, 1 sack back of the Broncos’ 44 sacks and they have a secondary that has played pretty well this year, arguably a top 10 with 15 interceptions and only 28 touchdowns allowed through the air. The Patriots might still win, but I say the magic’s gone. Houston goes to the AFC Championship.

    That leaves an AFC Championship between the Baltimore Ravens and the Houston Texans. It seems a bit far-fetched because the Chiefs and Chargers, even the Patriots are the favourites, but they all have their flaws, and despite Baltimore and Houston aren’t perfect teams, I see them fighting for a trip to Atlanta for Super Bowl 53. Both the Ravens and the Texans have each played incredible football all year: the Ravens won 6 of their last 7 games, to clinch their division and the Texans won 9 consecutive games after starting 0-3 to lock up their division. The Ravens offence and defence has been electrified by the emergence of new QB Lamar Jackson, potentially a new Michael Vick in terms of his ability to run the football. The offence is being revitalized by the presence of Jackson and they’ve been playing much better football than with Flacco. Their defence also became the #1 scoring defence with Jackson at QB. The Texans even with injuries to Will Fuller and Demaryius Thomas have been playing excellent football on offence and defence, they have a top 10 unit on both sides of the ball and they are very dangerous especially with a mobile Deshaun Watson throwing to a quick Deandre Hopkins, but the Ravens’ have the number one scoring defence in the league, which has been playing well in the pass rush game, run defence game and secondary game. Unless the Texans can get creative with Lamar Miller and disguise coverages to mess with Baltimore’s defence, I see Baltimore’s defence being too much for Houston; which sends Baltimore to the Super Bowl with a seven-point win.

For the playoff picks in the NFC:

    In the first game of the wildcard round, we have the Vikings visiting the Bears. It is incredible how the Bears go from 5-11 to 11-4, possibly 12-4 in one season, that just proves they have talent on both sides of the ball. But the real catalyst, in my opinion, was when the Bears acquired pro bowler pass rusher Khalil Mack from the Raiders at the expense of a few draft picks. Khalil Mack has electrified the Bears defence, making their pass rush a top 10 unit in the NFL joining the likes of the Chiefs, Ravens, Broncos, Texans, Steelers, Rams, etc. Their secondary, though flagged a lot, the majority of the fouls coming from Prince Amukamara, is pretty good, it was projected to be a middle of the pack unit, and quite frankly that’s where they are; only allowing 26.3 points per game, which is 9th in the NFL, and they rank 21st in yards and pass yards per game. The Bears offence has been middle of the pack. Trubisky had a decent year with 3200 passing yards, 24 touchdowns and 12 interceptions in 14 games, Chase Daniels played the other two when Trubisky was injured. Their rush game was excellent too, with 12 touchdowns from their running back duo in Tarik Cohen and Jordan Howard. The Vikings have many pieces from their excellent defences from last year, when they went 13-3, only to lose to the Eagles in the NFC Championship. The Vikings thought they could improve and go to a Super Bowl with a new QB, so they signed Kirk Cousins to a 3 year $84 million guaranteed contract. So far, Cousins’ stats have been excellent. He’s thrown for nearly 4300 yards, with 30 TDs and only 10 INTs. However, the Vikings 8-7-1 record told us something. Cousins cannot play in big games. He is only 1-6 against teams with a winning record this season. That only win was week 5 against the Eagles. His inability to perform in the clutch when it matters, in addition to the Bears’ excellent defence and semi-productive offence, tells me the Bears win.

    The next wildcard game sees a game in which we’ve seen a lot before. The Seahawks visiting Dallas to play the Cowboys. A wild card game in 2006, saw Romo fumble the snap on a 19-yard field goal down 21-20 with 1:05 left in the fourth quarter. This is a wild rivalry and will be a great game. The Seahawks were projected to finish in the NFC’s basement with a 4-12 record according to ESPN, because of their lack of a defence, but due to stellar play from linebacker Bobby Wagner and a career season from Russell Wilson with 3,448 yards, 35 TDs and only 7 INTs, they clinched the 5th seed with a 10-6 record, beating some incredible teams on the way like the Chiefs. The Cowboys with amazing play from their first-round draft pick Leighton Vander Esch and thanks to another stellar season from Zeke who had 1,434 rush yards and six rush touchdowns. He also had 3 receiving touchdowns despite 1 lost fumble. Amari Cooper, who came via trade from Oakland after week 8 also helped electrify the Cowboys’ offence with 1,005 receiving yards and 7 touchdowns through the air. He was the much-needed 2nd WR behind Beasley after Dez Bryant left. This game is a coin toss. I can see either team win. I’ll go with the Cowboys, who despite winning a weak NFC East, looked pretty good all season long.

    That makes my two divisional round matchups Dallas visiting New Orleans and the Rams hosting the Bears. Two rematch games from four heated rivals. For the first matchup, we have the Cowboys visiting the Saints. The last time these two teams played, in week 13, the Cowboys’ defence led by Demarcus Lawrence and Leighton Vander Esch absolutely stopped the Saints’ red-hot offence flat on their feet and shut down Brees, Kamara, Ingram, Thomas and shocked the world with a 13-10 win at home. The Cowboys have a good team with an offence and defence that has played particularly well all season long with players like Dak, Zeke, Cooper, Vander Esch, Lawrence, etc. But personally, I have the Saints winning. Not only do I think they have the better offence and defence, but the Cowboys barely beat the tanking Giants after starting more than half their starters. Mind you, one game doesn’t tell the whole season’s story, but after what the Cowboys did to the Saints last time they played, I predict the Saints go all out at home - where they’ve played excellent this season - against the Cowboys and beat them by over two touchdowns.

    The next matchup sees the Rams hosting the Bears. Both teams have had incredible seasons, and despite the Bears beat the Vikings to eliminate the Vikings and get the Eagles into the playoffs, the Rams also handily beat the 49ers to secure the 2nd seed in the NFC which gives the Bears the 3rd seed. The Rams have a potent offence with Jared Goff, Cooper Kupp, Robert Woods and Todd Gurley and a very strong defence: an excellent pass rush with Aaron Donald, Ndamaka Suh, Samson Ebukam, etc and an amazing secondary with Marcus Peters and Aqib Talib who is back from an injury that left him sidelined for most of the season. But running back Todd Gurley, the electrifying running back that has been very helpful in making this Rams offence top 3 in the league with the Saints and Chiefs, is injured and head coach Sean McVay isn’t 100% sure, he’ll be ready for the playoffs, even with the extra week of rest because of the bye. C.J. Anderson, the Rams backup running back is good but was at his prime with the Broncos, and as of this season, considering he only played two games, is no Todd Gurley. And sure, the Bears will be tired from their wildcard clash with the Eagles, which they will handily win, even with Nick Foles making Christmas miracles happen every week; but the Bears beat the Rams already this year. And they shut down the Rams’ offence even with Todd Gurley and kept them to 6 points in a 15-6 win. Matt Nagy the Bears’ head coach operated his offence beautifully to control the game against a Rams’ defence that was tired because they were on the field so long, Bears had 60+ % possession and his defence led by Khalil Mack, shut down the Rams’ run game and interrupted the passing game by getting to Jared Goff. I say the Bears repeat the formula and upset the Rams. The Rams have a complete team, but so do the Bears and I think the loss of Gurley is too much to overcome. Bears win by a touchdown or by 10 points max.

    That means the NFC Championship will be the Bears visiting the Superdome to play the Saints for a chance to win a trip to Super Bowl 53. Both teams are loaded with talent on both sides of the ball. This game will be a coin toss, either team can win it because both teams have a potent offence and defence hence the Saints’ 13-3 record and the Bears 12-4 record. Both teams have potent weapons on offence although, I’d argue the Saints have the better offence in both the pass and rush game with all-stars like Brees, Thomas, Kamara, Ingram, Taysom Hill, Benjamin Watson, etc. In 15 games in 2018, he threw for 8 yards under 4000, had 32 touchdowns and only 5 interceptions with a 74.4% completion rate. The running game featuring Kamara and Ingram had a very productive season. Kamara had 883 rush yards and 14 touchdowns and 709 receiving yards with 4 touchdowns through the air. Mark Ingram had 645 yards and 6 touchdowns. The Bears offence was pretty good this season too, but not as good as the Saints’. Trubisky had a decent year with 3200 passing yards, 24 touchdowns and 12 interceptions in 14 games. Their rush game was excellent too, with 12 touchdowns from their running back duo in Tarik Cohen and Jordan Howard. Both defences are pretty good too. I will give the edge to the Bears in the pass rush department, Bears have 50 sacks on the season compared to the Saints 49, both teams have 19 forced fumbles. So statistically it is close, but the Bears have more super-stars on their pass rush with Khalil Mack, Akiem Hicks, Roquan Smith, Eddie Goldman, etc. Those guys are more well known have more experience than players like Cam Atkinson, Marcus Davenport and Alex Anzalone, defensive lineman and linebackers for the Saints. Both units are very good though, but Bears get the edge. Also, the Saints have more well known and disciplined secondary than the Bears, the Saints take fewer penalties in the secondary (Prince Amukamara, Bears CB is the most penalised CB in the league) but the Bears have 27 INTs compared to the Saints’ 12. Playmaking defences like the Bears’ are what gets you wins in the regular season or playoffs, especially when a team has an excellent offence like the Saints’. The Saints have a better offence, but the Bears have a better defence because they have the fewest points against with 17.7 per game, a league-leading 27 interceptions, the fewest rush yards per game allowed with 80, the lowest passer rating allowed to opposing QBs with 72.9 and a league-leading 6 defensive TDs, 2 from Mack. However, the Saints can contain blitzes when they're against stellar defences, like the Bears’, Brees doesn’t make a lot of mistakes, that includes throwing interceptions and when their offence gets going, no one can stop it. Saints win a close game and go to the Super Bowl.

    As a result, Super Bowl 53 will feature a matchup between the Baltimore Ravens and the New Orleans Saints, a rematch of the week 7 matchup between these 2 teams. This is the ideal Super Bowl in my opinion. Number one offence vs the number one defence. Like in Super Bowl 48, the Broncos had the best offence, and the Seahawks had the best defence (the game would’ve been close if not for the safety at the beginning by Denver). A Super Bowl matchup like this is something I’d look forward too. When the Rams vs Chiefs games was on, everybody was hyping it up because ‘the two best offences’ in the NFL at the time, were battling it out, and don’t get me wrong, that game was amazing to watch, Jared Goff single-handedly won my fantasy matchup that week, we’ve never seen a game where both teams scored 50 or more points in a Rams’ 54-51 win, but I just like many other football enthusiasts like to see both offence and defence in a football game, because a good defence changes the outcome of a game just as easily as an electrifying offence. Another great thing about the best offence vs the best defence in a game, especially in a Super Bowl, is that the first team to cause the other team to make a mistake will win the game. Seattle’s defence forcing a Denver safety is proof of that. If Baltimore’s defence is able to disrupt the Saints offence and cause turnovers, they will win the game. If the Saints’ offence is too much for the Ravens’ defence, chances are the Saints will run away with the game and win. After all, the Saints have scored over 30 points 10 times this season and have scored 40 points 6 times, even scoring 51 against the Bengals. So the Saints’ offence is amazing, but so is the Ravens’ defence. The Bears have the highest scoring defence, but the Ravens and Bears are 1&2 in the league when it comes to talent and production on defence. Either way, this game is a coin toss. Both teams are good and have played excellent football on both sides of the ball all year and have had great coaching to lead them to this point. So, I predict the Ravens’ stellar defence keeps the Saints offence in check and keep it a close game for the most part, however, I think Drew Brees will lead another game-winning drive with less than two minutes left in the game to win his 2nd Super Bowl (the second in Saints’ franchise history) and he rides off into the sunset and calls it a career after the win just like Peyton Manning after winning Super Bowl 50. After all, Brees beat the Ravens for the first time in his career in the week 7 matchup this season, to improve to 1-5 against them, so I don’t see why Brees can’t beat the Ravens again, this time in the Super Bowl.

    Those are my playoff predictions. Considering the week 17 games haven’t happened yet, a lot can still change. But I don’t see anything changing. I believe the same teams in the playoffs right now, after week 16, will be in the playoffs after week 17 and they will remain in the same seeding too. The only possible change I see happening is the Eagles making it in over the Vikings, because the Eagles have a guaranteed win against a very injured Redskins team with a 4th string QB in Josh Johnson who is playing on his 9th NFL team in his 12 year NFL career. He’s also played for several AAFL and UFL teams too. The Redskins have over 25 players on IR and over 35 out with injury. Also, the Bears will likely play their starters against the Vikings, according to HC Matt Nagy, and try to beat the Vikings so that they can grab the NFC’s second seed with a Rams loss a. Even if the Rams beat the 49ers, the Bears still want to end the season on a good note, going to wildcard weekend. And maybe the Browns play spoiler to the Ravens and get Pittsburgh in the playoffs, that is way less likely than the Eagles getting into the playoffs to defend their title.  

    What do you think will happen in the playoffs? Who will get in? What will the seeding look like? What two teams will get to the Super Bowl? Who will lift the Lombardi Trophy as world champions?