Adamo Marinelli
January 13, 2024
The NFL Wild Card weekend is here. Let’s analyze each matchup and pick a winner.
AFC:
Cleveland Browns over Houston Texans:
Rookie phenom QB C.J. Stroud has had a phenomenal season, throwing for 4,108 yards, 23 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions in 15 games to lead the Houston Texans -who were competing for the first overall pick last season- to a 10-7 record and a playoff berth. Head coach DeMeco Ryans also deserves Coach of the Year considerations for the job he’s done building this roster into a playoff team.
However, the Browns’ defense is among the best in the league; proving they can win games regardless of who is quarterback. Including Jeff Driskel in week 18, the Browns started five quarterbacks this season and finished the season 11-6, securing the AFC’s first wild-card spot. Arguably, the main reason for the Browns’ late-season resurgence is Joe Flacco, who in five games threw for over 1600 yards, 13 TDs, and 8 INTs; including throwing for over 300 yards in all but one game.
The Browns have the better pass rush, secondary, and rushing attack. Cleveland ranks 10th in the league with 2017 total rush yards and they’ve scored 15 times on the ground and were especially efficient on the ground in the red zone even without Nick Chubb. However, the Texans are better defensively against the run, allowing 96.6 rush yards per game vs Cleveland’s 105.5, but have allowed 19 rush touchdowns to opposition vs Cleveland’s 15.
Considering the Browns’ excellent defense that allowed only 270 yards per game to opponents (fewest in the NFL), Joe Flacco’s resurgence, a critical injury to Houston’s WR1 Tank Dell, and the current Texans’ rosters limited playoff experience, the Browns will pull off a close victory in a back-and-forth contest 28-24.
Miami Dolphins over Kansas City Chiefs
I understand the Dolphins’ poor record in the cold and that their only win against a team over .500% was their Christmas Eve victory against the Cowboys. I know the Dolphins’ defense is riddled with injuries including edge rushers Jaelan Phillips and Bradley Chubb. However, I see the Dolphins coming away with a statement upset win.
The Dolphins had the division in their control in week 13, with a 9-3 record; the Bills were 6-6. The Dolphins then lost three of their next five games, including a 56-19 beatdown at the hands of the Baltimore Ravens. They will be seething with rage for failing to secure a home playoff game and they’ll want to prove they can beat the “fraud” allegations and win on the road against a playoff team in the cold.
Besides, even though Patrick Mahomes had another great season at QB, it was their defense, specifically their strong pass rush led by Chris Jones and their great secondary that led this team to an 8th straight division title. Kansas City’s offense looks as shaky as it ever has in recent memory and they struggled for the majority of the season. They scored fewer points than in the previous season, looked vulnerable, and couldn’t move the ball at times. The biggest issue was their wide receivers who were all plagued with numerous drops which cost them games.
The Chiefs in the playoffs are a force to be reckoned with, but this cold weather may limit the passing attack for both sides and the Chiefs’ receivers could struggle to catch passes, especially if considering their issues earlier in the season when it was warmer. The Dolphins’ rush attack - consisting of Raheem Mostert and De’Von Achane - is significantly better than the Chiefs’ which will benefit them in the cold. Also, Tyreek Hill will be motivated to show out in his first return to Arrowhead as an opponent. Dolphins score a game-winning field goal to secure a 24-22 win.
Buffalo Bills over Pittsburgh Steelers:
You have to respect the Pittsburgh Steelers. Head coach Mike Tomlin secured another winning season despite having a negative 20-point differential and one of the worst offenses in recent history. Still, because of their great defense, they finished the year 10-7, including going 5-1 against AFC North opponents -arguably the best division in football, with every team finishing above .500% for the first time since the 1930s- to secure a playoff spot thanks in part to a colossal collapse by the Jacksonville Jaguars.
But without T.J. Watt, their best defensive weapon, and against a red-hot Bills team who won five consecutive games to finish the year 11-6 as AFC East Champions, the Steelers have a very small chance to move on.
Josh Allen has been playing excellent football, and despite his turnover issues, he’s shown again and again that he can drive the ball downfield and score touchdowns with his arms and legs. He is much better than Kenny Pickett and Mason Rudolph and the Bills are simply better on both sides of the ball than the Steelers, especially offensively. The Bills will trounce Pittsburgh 31-13 at home after a huge day by Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis.
NFC:
Dallas Cowboys over Green Bay Packers:
The Cowboys won four of their last six games to secure the NFC East title from the struggling Philadelphia Eagles who lost five of their last six games to end the season 11-6 after starting 10-1. This extends the streak of no repeat champions of the NFC East to 19 years. Dallas has won 16 straight matches at home and will be a huge challenge for this extremely young Packers’ team with limited playoff experience.
Both offenses were in the league’s top half in points per game during the regular season. Dallas scored a league-best 29.9 points per game, and Green Bay was 12th with 22.5 points per game. The Cowboys had 4660 pass yards, third most in the league, only 40 behind the Minnesota Vikings who led the league with 4700. Dak Prescott, an MVP favourite, led the league with 36 TD passes and finished near the top of the league for the fewest interceptions with nine. Jordan Love has put together a phenomenal season and is proving to be the next franchise QB for the Packers, finishing with 4159 pass yards, 32 pass TDs -second most in the NFL-, and only 11 INTs.
While Green Bay has won nine of its last 10 games against Dallas, including a divisional round win in 2016, Cowboys’ head coach Mike McCarthy -who coached the Packers to their only Super Bowl in the 21st century- will want to defeat his former team. The Cowboys' entire team will also want to make up for previous playoff losses against the Packers.
Regardless of what happens in this game, it has been a successful season for Green Bay, making the playoffs in a rebuilding year, however, the Cowboys are the better team on offense and on defense and are almost invincible at home. The Cowboys will win in blowout fashion, 34-17.
Los Angeles Rams over Detroit Lions:
What a game, the scriptwriters went crazy with this one. In the Lions’ first home playoff game in 30 years, after winning their first-ever NFC North title, their opponent is the LA Rams. This playoff game is the first time in NFL history that both QBs, Matt Stafford and Jared Goff will face off against their former teams -they were traded for each other in January of 2021.
Both teams have had fantastic seasons. The Lions relied on their stellar secondary, pass rush, and spectacular running game consisting of Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery -who both rushed for over 900 rush yards and 10 TDs this season- to secure a 12-5 record to earn the NFC’s third seed. Rookie tight end Sam Laporta was also a dynamic factor in the Lions’ offense, catching 10 TD passes while recording almost 900 receiving yards.
The Rams, after starting 4-6, are one of the hottest teams entering the playoffs after winning six of their last seven games to finish 10-5 and secure a playoff spot comfortably. The Rams’ offense has been the reason for their late-season turnaround, mainly because of two late-round studs: RB Kyren Williams who finished 1144 rush yards (7th most in the NFL) while also finding the endzone 12 times, and WR Puka Nacua who broke the rookie receiving yards with 1486 yards and 105 receptions while adding six TDs.
The Lions have an excellent rush defense, allowing only 1509 rush yards (2nd fewest in the NFL), the Rams rank 12th having given up 1816 yards, but the Lions’ secondary is among the worst in the league, giving up 4562 pass/receiving yards (4th most) and 28 receiving TDs (6th most).
Regardless of who wins, this is sure to be a high-scoring shootout. But I have to give the
edge to Stafford and the Rams -who have a ton of playoff experience and have won a Super Bowl
with their current roster. The Lions have a young, talented team and are well-coached but the Rams will pull off the upset 27-25 after stopping the Lions on a game-tying two-point convert as time expires.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers over Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles are spiraling out of control. They started the year 10-1, and looked like they’d be back in the Super Bowl. They then lost five of their last six games to finish 11-6, losing the division to Dallas, and will have to play a road wild-card game.
The Eagles’ offense -both on the ground and through the air- looks inefficient, it’s nowhere near as potent as it was last season. Their dominant offensive line isn’t as physically dominant as earlier in the season and they’re unable to open up gaps for their running backs. Their pass rush, which recorded 70 sacks last season, is not even close to being as effective and their secondary is "torch-able", it’s among the worst in the league, allowing the second most pass yards and TDs, 4551 and 35 respectively.
The Bucs have won 5 of their last 6 games, thanks to very strong play from QB Baker Mayfield, who is having the best statistical season of his career -finishing with over 4000 passing yards, 28 TD passes, and 10 INTs. As a result, the Buccaneers claimed their 3rd straight division title and will have momentum heading into their playoff home game.
Tampa Bay is playing with house money, in a rebuild year, a playoff berth is a huge success, even though it came from winning one of the worst divisions in NFL history. They have no pressure or expectations to win and that’s typically when teams play at their best, when they have nothing to lose. The Bucs are probably playing one of the more favorable matchups (I wouldn’t want to play the Rams or Lions) considering the Eagles’ recent collapse. The Eagles are talented, even without star WR AJ Brown who was ruled out on Saturday morning, but they don’t have a ton of momentum ahead of this game. The Eagles will have all the pressure to win on them and it will lead to them making some crucial mistakes. The Bucs will win a close one, 23-20.
