By: Adamo Marinelli
Can the Montreal Alouettes pull off another miracle upset? Or can the Winnipeg Blue Bombers make it three Grey Cup Championships in four years - the first team to reach four straight finals since Edmonton appeared in six straight and won five from 1977 to 1982?
The Blue Bombers finished the season with the second-best record in the CFL at 14-4 - behind only the 16-2 Toronto Argonauts, who were upset 38-17 by the Als after committing nine turnovers in the East Final - and unsurprisingly are huge 8.5 point favourites to defeat the Alouettes on Sunday.
The Winnipeg Blue Bombers are a tough team to bet against and they lead the league in both the most points per game (31.7) and the fewest points allowed per game (18.2).
However, this Alouettes team, particularly their defense, is nothing to scoff at. They forced nine turnovers including two pick-sixes and four interceptions against an Argos’ offense that had been firing on all cylinders under the guidance of QB Chad Kelly and RB A.J. Ouellette.
The Alouettes who finished second in the East Division with an 11-7 record are well-coached, disciplined, and can score points in bunches. However, the Als lost both regular-season games against the Blue Bombers by a combined margin of 64-20; the Als will need another defensive masterclass if they hope to emerge victorious.
The Blue Bombers’ offense is not easy to shut down. Zach Collaros becomes the first CFL player ever to start in four consecutive Grey Cups and is arguably one of the best passers in the CFL, even at 35.
The stats don’t lie. He led all starters in efficiency rating this season while leading the CFL in touchdown passes with 33 and he tied for second in passing yards with 4252. The 2021 Grey Cup MVP and two-time regular-season Most Outstanding Player is 7-1 in the playoffs as a Blue Bomber, with a pair of championship rings to boot.
Not to mention, the offensive weapons Winnipeg has around Collaros are just as dangerous as he is. RB Brady Olivera led the league with 1534 rushing yards and finished joint first with Ottawa Redblacks’ QB Dustin Crum with nine rushing touchdowns. Olivera finished the year with 13 total touchdowns and became the 15th payer in CFL history to amass over 2000 scrimmage yards.
Both Dalton Schoen and Nic Demski are 1000+ yard receivers for the Blue Bombers with 1222 and 1006 receiving yards respectively. Both receivers also rank top five in touchdown catches with 10 and 6 respectively. Kenny Lawler and Rasheed Bailey also have six touchdown catches each for Winnipeg. Winnipeg can beat you in a lot of ways, but they are a run-first team.
So, priority number one for the Alouettes will be to stop the run. Montreal ranked fifth in rush defense during the regular season, allowing just over 110 rush yards per game. If they can manage to stop Winnipeg’s potent rush attack and force their opponents into second and long situations, that’s when this defense can excel. They’ve allowed only 238.7 pass yards per game, the second-fewest in the CFL only behind Winnipeg who’ve allowed 229.4 pass yards per game. Interestingly, Montreal has allowed the second-fewest total points all year with 392, only 15 more than Winnipeg.
Winnipeg’s talented receivers will provide a very tough test for Montreal’s secondary, but if they can generate enough pressure to hurry up Collaros it would help their secondary out a lot. Unfortunately for Montreal, they rank sixth in the CFL with 42 sacks, only two more than the Edmonton Elks who rank dead last. That’s not ideal against a Blue Bombers’ offensive line that ranks among the best in fewest pressures and sacks allowed which gives Collaros a lot of time to find open receivers downfield. Shawn Lemon had nine sacks this season for the Als; he’ll have to be the difference-maker on the Als’ defensive line.
Meanwhile, Winnipeg finished fourth in the CFL with 50 sacks and has two superstar defensive ends in Willie Jefferson and Jackson Jeffcoat who rank in the top 10 sack leaders with 11 and eight sacks respectively. They are both excellent run stoppers, get off their blocks effectively, and relentlessly pressure the opposing QB all night; it will be a challenge for the Als’ offensive line which ranks middle of the pack in pass protection.
Unsurprisingly, the Blue Bombers are the best offense in the CFL; they lead the league in points scored (594), rush yards (2503), total scrimmage yards (7511) and rank second in passing yards (5008) only behind the BC Lions. Meanwhile, the Alouettes rank fourth in points scored (442), fifth in rush yards (1861), sixth in pass yards (4116), and sixth in total scrimmage yards (5977).
So while the obvious advantage goes to Winnipeg, if the game remains close going into the second half, that’s when the Alouettes' defense can really step up and make a game-altering play.
On the bright side for the Alouettes, while they might be outmatched statistically, they’ve won seven straight games (five regular season and two in the playoffs) after sitting at 6-7 in mid-September. They’re catching fire at the right time and are riding high on confidence and momentum after their demolition over the Argos.
Also, the Alouettes are winning the turnover battle, a key factor in winning important football games. They’ve forced 48 turnovers this year, second most in the league only to Toronto’s 54. Last season, the Argos led the league with 48 takeaways and intercepted Collaros twice in the Grey Cup Final. If the Alouettes can turn the ball over, they have a real chance to win.
Finally, the Blue Bombers are dealing with two big injuries. Wide receiver Dalton Schoen and linebacker Adam Bighill are both questionable for the Grey Cup final. Schoen has missed the last three games; Bighill sat out the second half of the West Final after suffering a calf injury. The Bombers have a lot of depth at both positions, but playing without those two key players will be a challenge.
I predict this game to be close, within seven points. Coaching and previous experience in certain situations play a huge role in big games. The Bombers have much more experience in Grey Cups compared to the Als and Mike O’Shea is a better coach than Jason Maas, which gives Winnipeg another advantage.
But anything can happen on the gridiron; despite being heavy favourites, the Blue Bombers shouldn’t take the Als lightly.
The Als will keep it close, but they’ll fall 34-28 to Winnipeg who cement their CFL dynasty.
